\n\tBy Chris Shaw<\/p>\n
\n\tSeasonal trends for August suggest positive share price performance in Australia, Barclays Capital noting the All Ordinaries is on an eight-year bullish streak for the month. The group sees the market as having a 70% chance of an advance this month, second only to South Africa's JSE Index at 73%.<\/p>\n
\n\tMedian returns for US equities tend to be higher than for European equities in August and the expectations of Barclays reflect this, as while the Dow Jones is given a 59% chance of advancing and the S&P500 a 57% chance, Germany's DAX is given a 58% chance and France's CAC40 just a 43% chance of ending the month higher.<\/p>\n
\n\tAsian shares may also find the going tougher, Barclays giving the Nikkei just a 50% chance of gaining, the Hang Seng a 48% chance and the Shanghai Index a 47% chance of finishing the month higher.<\/p>\n
\n\tIn the foreign exchange market August tends to be the most bearish month of the year for the Australian dollar against its New Zealand counterpart. AUD\/NZD is given only a 40% chance of gaining this month.<\/p>\n
\n\tThe Aussie dollar is also given a less than even money chance of gaining against the US dollar in August, while the US itself is a 49% chance of gaining against the euro and just a 44% chance of gaining on either the Canadian dollar or Japanese yen.<\/p>\n
\n\tAugust appears a mixed month for the euro, as Barclays suggests while there is a 59% chance of the currency gaining on the British pound, there is just a 46% chance of ending the month higher against the yen.<\/p>\n
\n\tAmong commodities, Barclays notes West Texas Intermediate has the highest odds of an advance this month at 59%, August being a month where the average and median returns for oil are typically high.<\/p>\n
\n\tNatural gas and gold are given 53% chances of ending August higher and copper a 50% chance of gaining for the month, while aluminium is given only a 39% chance of moving higher this August and the CRB Index just a 42% chance.<\/p>\n
\n\tLong dated bonds aside from Swiss 10-years are on multi-year bullish streaks in August and Barclays suggests the odds of a yield advance this month are 50% or less for US, Euro, UK and Japanese 10 year bonds.<\/p>\n
\n\tSimilarly, Barclays sees only a 34% chance Australian 10-year bonds see a yield increase this month and a 35% chance for New Zealand 10-year bonds, while among shorter-term securities only three-month sterling is given a better than 50% chance of yield gains for the month.<\/p>\n
\n\tIn terms of yield curves, Barclays points out the US has the lowest odds of a steepening in the curve between its two-year and 10-year securities, this despite being on a three year steepening streak. In relative value terms, the group notes Japanese two-year securities tend to do better in August than similar securities in either the US or Europe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Barclays notes seasonal trends are positive for Australian equities and oil prices in August, but the Australian dollar tends to find the going a bit tougher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[23,21,27,29,24,41,40,26],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56976"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56976"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56976\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56976"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56976"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56976"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}