##{"id":58456,"date":"2011-07-15T08:28:37","date_gmt":"2011-07-14T22:28:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/07\/15\/the-overnight-report-did-i-say-qe3\/"},"modified":"2011-07-15T08:28:37","modified_gmt":"2011-07-14T22:28:37","slug":"the-overnight-report-did-i-say-qe3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/07\/15\/the-overnight-report-did-i-say-qe3\/","title":{"rendered":"The Overnight Report: Did I Say QE3?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n\tBy Greg Peel<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe Dow closed down 54 points or 0.4% while the S&amp;P lost 0.7% to 1308 and the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Nasdaq<\/span> plunged 1.2%.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tShocked into action by this week&#039;s major escalation of the European crisis which has brought Italy into the frame, the well-respected Italian finance minister has since rallied the troops, brought forward emergency discussions, and last night the Italian parliament passed an austerity package aimed at budget cuts and, more specifically, appeasing global markets.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tNot only was the vote on the bill brought right forward from the end of August, the size of the package was double that originally flagged. The government then went out and successfully auctioned <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">E1.25bn<\/span> of five-year bonds at a yield of 4.93%. The cost is about 1% higher than the last equivalent auction in June, but the market bought them nevertheless, further easing fears that Europe&#039;s third largest economy is next.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tIt was enough to afford Wall Street a more positive mood at last night&#039;s open, and enthusiasm grew as major US bank JP Morgan Chase (Dow) posted a well received earnings report. <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">JPM<\/span> brought back provisions, increased revenues with some actual commercial lending, and over the quarter bought back US$<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">3.5bn<\/span> of stock to boost shareholder value. The bank&#039;s shares finished up 1.8%.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tIt was enough to have the Dow up 90 points by <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">10.30am<\/span>, but then Uncle Ben had to go and open his mouth.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tI don&#039;t know about you, by I interpreted Fed chairman Ben Bernanke&#039;s comments to Congress on Wednesday night as suggesting that <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">QE3<\/span> stands ready to be implemented were the US recovery to continue to be slow and were deflation to threaten once more. Other words, it ain&#039;t going to happen tomorrow but if things don&#039;t improve down the track, well, we&#039;ll just have to do what we have to do.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tApparently Wall Street didn&#039;t quite see it that way though, assuming, for some reason, that <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">QE3<\/span> would be fired up some time next week. So when Bernanke qualified his earlier statement last night, in his ongoing testimony, Wall Street turned and fled. The chairman had pointed out that the Fed still anticipated improvement in the second half, and were inflation expectations to increase then <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">QE3<\/span> would be kept in its box.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tAs I said yesterday, we&#039;re now back in this tedious &ldquo;bad is good and good is bad&rdquo; mode. From here on, Wall Street will almost be willing the jobs numbers to be weak.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tJP Morgan remained the star of the session, easing the fall in the Dow, while the rest of the financial sector and market slid away. Citigroup reports tonight, but analysts are concerned the good result from <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">JPM<\/span> might have indicated an increase in market share, rather than sector-wide improvement of note. Meanwhile, the tech-laden <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Nasdaq<\/span> <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">underperformed<\/span> as weak commentary from chip makers resonated, and ahead of the after-market release of Google&#039;s result.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tTo add to the weakness, Moody&#039;s stuck its head up (seems to love the publicity at the moment) and suggested the US might lose its AAA rating if it couldn&#039;t resolve the debt ceiling issue. Well duh. Moody&#039;s had already said this once before anyway. But just after lunch, it was announced that the two parties had suddenly reached an agreement on US$1.5 trillion of spending cuts, despite having been seemingly locked in a stalemate on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tWall Street bounced, sending the Dow back up to the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">flatline<\/span> from around 50 points down, but then it drifted away again to the close.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe debt ceiling news at least sparked a bit of a sell-off in bonds, with the ten-year yield gaining <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">7bps<\/span> to 2.96%. The earlier auction of US$<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">13bn<\/span> of thirty-year bonds was very popular, albeit foreign central banks bought 38% compared to a 40% running average.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe US dollar had begun the day weaker as the euro rallied on the positive news from Rome and on expectations of <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">QE3<\/span>. But Bernanke&#039;s comments and the supposed breakthrough on the debt ceiling had the US dollar turning around to be up 0.2% at 75.21. Gold thus took a little bit of a breather in rising only US$4.40 to US$1587.00\/oz.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tSilver was flat, base metals were mixed on small moves, and Brent crude fell <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">US46c<\/span> to US$118.32\/<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">bbl<\/span>. Disappointment over no immediate <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">QE3<\/span> had West Texas tumbling US$2.02 to US$96.03\/\/<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">bl<\/span>, widening the spread once more to around US$22.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe Aussie was steady at US$1.0722 and the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">SPI<\/span> Overnight lost 9 points or 0.2%.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThen after the bell, Google reported. In short, the result completely blew Wall Street analysts off their chairs. Google shares are up a whopping 12% in the after-market which is a substantial move for a company of Google&#039;s size. One presumes, ceteris paribus, that this result will give the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Nasdaq<\/span> in particular and all the indices in general a chance at a good start tonight.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n\tPlease note that a <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">vodcast<\/span> of the sensational new show everyone&#039;s talking about around the water cooler &#8212; <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">FNArena&#039;s<\/span> Market Insight &#8212; will be posted on our website later this morning.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<em>[Note: All paying members at <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">FNArena<\/span> are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.]<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wall Street gave up a promising start last night on qualification from the Fed chairman. Dow down 54.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[90,23,21,29,24,41,91,22,30,46,26],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58456"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58456"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58456\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}