{"id":58637,"date":"2011-08-08T10:45:31","date_gmt":"2011-08-08T00:45:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/08\/bayonets-and-gold\/"},"modified":"2011-08-08T10:45:31","modified_gmt":"2011-08-08T00:45:31","slug":"bayonets-and-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/08\/bayonets-and-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Bayonets And Gold"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n\tBy Richard (Rick) Mills<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<em>As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe history of fiat money has always been one of failure &#8211; every fiat currency since the Romans started diluting the silver content of their <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">denarius<\/span> has ended in devaluation and eventual collapse of both the currency and of that particular economy. Most paper money economies downfall can be linked to the costs of financing out of control military growth and its wars.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tFor the very first time in our history, all money, all currencies, are now fiat &#8211; the US dollar use to be gold backed and it was the rock all the worlds currencies were anchored to &#8211; when the US dollar became fiat, all the worlds currencies became fiat.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tAccording to House Speaker John Boehner and Senate majority leader Harry Reid the budget compromise reached between the White House and Congress in April of this year included an &quot;<em>historic amount of cuts<\/em>&quot;. President Obama gushed it was &quot;<em>the largest annual spending cut in our history<\/em>&rdquo;.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tMainstream media called the cuts sweeping and across-the-board.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tUnfortunately not a single penny of the spending cuts will come from the Pentagon&#039;s coffers.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tDefense spending in 2011 is actually going to increase, by a reported $5 billion over 2010 levels to $513 billion. The $<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">513B<\/span> doesn&#039;t actually include the cost of ongoing overseas contingency operations, these would be the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (the Fiscal Year budget requests for US military spending do not include combat figures which are supplemental requests that Congress approves separately) &ndash; if those costs were included <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">U.S<\/span>. military spending in 2011 will exceed $700 billion.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tAlso not included, even in the $<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">700B<\/span>, are nuclear weapons spending, black ops, interest on the defense portion of the debt and ongoing military obligations to veterans. The budget for nuclear weapons falls under the Department of Energy, other military expenses &#8211; care for veterans, health care, military training, aid and secret operations &ndash; are put under other departments or are accounted for separately.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe US numbers are eye opening &#8211; they amount to more than half of all government discretionary spending and represent, at the very least, an astounding 43% of total military spending on the planet.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/ckfinder\/userfiles\/images\/rickmills3-8a.jpg\" style=\"width: 700px;height: 708px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\n\tNeither Obama&#039;s 2012 budget proposal nor Representative Paul Ryan&#039;s &quot;Path to Prosperity&quot; signal a major decrease in military spending &#8211; Ryan&#039;s budget projection calls for nearly $8 trillion in military spending over the next decade.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&ldquo;<em>Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes &hellip; known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">few.&hellip;<\/span> No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">warfare.&rdquo;<\/span> James Madison, Political Observations, 1795<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe Chinese love their gold&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&ldquo;<em>Chinese appetite for gold has increased rapidly over the past few years. In March 2010, we predicted that gold demand in China would double by 2020, however, we believe that this doubling may in fact be achieved sooner. Increasing prosperity in the world&rsquo;s most populous country coupled with their high affinity for gold will serve to drive demand in the long-term. <a href=\"http:\/\/aheadoftheherd.com\/Newsletter\/2011\/Bernanke-Secretly-Gives-away-Sixteen-Trillion-Dollars.htm\">Near term inflationary expectations are likely to support the investment case for gold<\/a><\/em>.&rdquo; Albert Cheng, Managing Director, Far East at the World Gold Council<\/p>\n<p>\n\tSo too do Indians&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&ldquo;<em>Gold demand in India, the world&rsquo;s largest user of the bullion, may increase to more than 1,200 metric tons by 2020 as economic growth boosts incomes and household savings. Indian households hold more than 18,000 tons of gold, the largest stockpile of bullion in the world. Gold purchases by India accounted for 32 percent of total global sales in 2010<\/em>.&rdquo; World Gold Council<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<a href=\"http:\/\/aheadoftheherd.com\/Newsletter\/2011\/Be-Thematic-In-Your-Approach.htm\">India&rsquo;s total demand exceeded China&rsquo;s <\/a>by 383.5 tons in 2011. <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">GFMS<\/span> Ltd. and INTL <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">FCStone<\/span> said in March that Chinese consumption of gold may soon climb to rival that of India. Could it be that the Chinese, and Indians, long ago caught onto something we here in the west are just now slowly figuring out?<\/p>\n<p>\n\tAccording to the World Gold Council investor demand for gold ownership &#8211; in the form of bars, coins and jewelry &#8211; is climbing, while at the same time production at existing mines is grinding down, re cycled gold sales are dropping and central banks are increasingly gold buyers not sellers:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\tGlobal gold demand in the first quarter of 2011 totaled 981.3 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span> (US$<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">43.7bn<\/span>), up 11% year-on year from 881.0 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span> (US$<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">31.4bn<\/span>) in the first quarter of 2010. The increase was largely attributed to a widespread rise in demand for bars and coins and increased jewelry demand &#8211; demand for physical bars and coins was up 52% at 366.4 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span> while jewelry demand in the first quarter of 2011 registered a gain of 7% year-on-year to reach 556.9 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span>. <a href=\"http:\/\/aheadoftheherd.com\/1Articles\/TheGoldReport\/2011\/Rick-Mill-Cash-In-Not-Out-on-1500-Gold.htm\">India and China are the two largest markets for gold jewelry<\/a> and together accounted for 349.1 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span> of gold jewelry demand or 63% of the total &#8211; US$<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">16bn<\/span>. China&rsquo;s jewelry demand reached a new quarterly record of 142.9 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span>, up 21%, from 118.2 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span><\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tIn the first quarter of 2011 investment demand grew by 26% to 310.5 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span><\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">ETFs<\/span> and other similar products witnessed net outflows of 56 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span> (mostly concentrated in January). The collective volume of gold held by these products at the end of the quarter was still over 2,100 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span><\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tIn Q1 2011, gold supply declined by 4% year-on-year to 872.2 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span> from 912.1 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span> in the first quarter of 2010 &#8211; this against an increase in mine production of 44 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span> (a growth rate of 7%)<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tThe decline in total supply was because of two reasons: firstly recycled gold was down 6% on year earlier levels to 347.5 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span> from 369.3 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span> and secondly a sharp increase in net purchasing by the official sector &#8211; central bank purchases jumped to 129 <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">tonnes<\/span> in the quarter, exceeding the combined total of net purchases during the first three quarters of 2010<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\t<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/ckfinder\/userfiles\/images\/rickmills3-8b.jpg\" style=\"width: 700px;height: 259px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\n\tABN <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Amro<\/span> Bank, VM Group and <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Haliburton<\/span> Mineral Services recently published a report providing details on rising gold mining production costs. Cash costs include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\tDirect mining and processing expenses<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tOther onsite charges<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tThird party smelting and refining charges<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tRoyalties and taxes net of by-product credits<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\tIn the first quarter of 2011, the average cash cost of production rose from $609 oz to $620 oz.<br \/>\n\tWhile production costs were rising, so too were margins &#8211; from $758 oz to $<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">767oz<\/span>.<br \/>\n\tThe Gold Demand Trends report for Q1 2011 states demand for gold will be driven by a number of key factors:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\tContinued uncertainty over the US economy and the dollar<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tOngoing European sovereign debt concerns<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tGlobal inflationary pressures<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tContinued tensions in the Middle East and North Africa<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tChinese and Indian jewelry demand<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tNet purchasing by central banks<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\t<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/ckfinder\/userfiles\/images\/rickmills3-8c.jpg\" style=\"width: 700px;height: 745px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\n\tIf I was looking for superior investment vehicles to take advantage of what I think I know regarding the future for precious metals I&rsquo;d be looking at junior producers, near term producers and companies that are in the post discovery resource definition stage with the occasional green field exploration play thrown into the mix.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tI believe junior resource companies offer the greatest leverage to increased demand and rising prices for commodities. There is also a very real and increasing trend for Mergers and Acquisitions (M&amp;A) in one of the few bright spots available for investors &ndash; resources.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tJuniors, not majors, own the worlds future mines and juniors are the ones most adept at finding these future mines. They already own, and find, what the world&rsquo;s larger mining companies need to replace reserves and grow their asset base.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe following factors will drive the growing M&amp;A trend:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\tConsolidation to achieve economies of scale and pricing power<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tScarcity of large producing assets<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tHigh demand in industrialized nations for metals and minerals<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tV shaped recoveries in developing countries<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tExpansion into new geographies<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tDiversification of resource bases<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tLooser bank lending<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tHigher commodity prices and better company cost management = larger operating cash flow<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\tUsing history as our guide we know that the greatest leverage to precious metals, the most profitable rewarding way to get involved in precious metals, is to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aheadoftheherd.com\/Newsletter\/2010\/Management%20Company%20Stage%20and%20Risk%20v%20Reward.htm\">own the shares of junior precious metal companies <\/a>&#8211; <strong>our gold junior resource companies, the same ones who today are so oversold and undervalued, are the present owners of the world&rsquo;s future gold supply.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\tGold miners are showing some pretty healthy profits and their coffers are overflowing with cash. Investors are starting to pay attention. Ahead of the herd investors realize the attention being paid to the world&rsquo;s major and few remaining mid-tier miners will soon trickle down to the juniors developing precious metal projects.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<span>&nbsp;<\/span>Junior gold stocks should be on every investors radar screen. Are they on yours?<\/p>\n<p>\n\tIf not, maybe they should be.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tRichard (Rick) Mills?<br \/>\n\t<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">rick@aheadoftheherd.com<\/span>?<br \/>\n\t<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">www.aheadoftheherd.com<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>Technical limitations<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong><span style=\"font-style: italic\">If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included<\/span>, <em>we <span><span class=\"scayt-misspell\">apologise<\/span><\/span>, but technical limitations are to blame.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\t<em>Find out why <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">FNArena<\/span> subscribers like the service so much: &quot;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index4.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&amp;n=29EB960D-9DFF-C00E-7F6B464E5D52E250\">Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>&quot; &#8211; Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ahead of the Herd&#8217;s Rick Mills suggests junior gold stocks should be on the radar screen of every investor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[22],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58637"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58637"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58637\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}