{"id":58775,"date":"2011-09-01T10:54:21","date_gmt":"2011-09-01T00:54:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/01\/australian-stocks-like-september\/"},"modified":"2011-09-01T10:54:21","modified_gmt":"2011-09-01T00:54:21","slug":"australian-stocks-like-september","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/01\/australian-stocks-like-september\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian Stocks Like September"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\t– September bearish for equities, US dollar
\n\t– Precious metals have good odds of price advances
\n\t– Fixed income markets tend to be bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tBy Chris Shaw<\/p>\n

\n\tHistorical trends indicate September has a strong negative skew for equity markets, though the technical analysts at Barclays Capital note there are some exceptions such as the NASDAQ, Australia's All Ords<\/span>, South Africa's JSE<\/span> and India's Sensex<\/span>.<\/p>\n

\n\tAmong these the Sensex<\/span> has the highest odds of an advance this month at 63%, while the All Ords<\/span> is next best according to Barclays at a 59% chance of gaining and the NASDAQ at 53%. <\/p>\n

\n\tMost other markets are tipped to decline, with the HangSeng<\/span> and Nikkei given chances of advancing of just 46% and 44% respectively. Barclays sees the Dow Jones as having only a 35% chance of ending the month higher.<\/p>\n

\n\tSeptember also tends to be a bearish month for the US dollar against the majors and Baclays<\/span> sees this trend as continuing this time around. The group estimates the euro has a 66% chance of gaining on the greenback, while giving the dollar just a 29% chance of gaining on the Swiss franc and a 42% change of posting gains relative to the Japanese yen.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe euro should also do well against both the British pound and the yen in the view of Barclays, the group giving better than 60% changes of gains this month in both cases. The outlook for other currencies is more mixed, Barclays giving the Aussie dollar a 55% change of gains against its US counterpart but ascribing only a 45% chance of the New Zealand dollar strengthening against the greenback.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn the commodity markets Barclays notes natural gas tends to be the best performer in September, while aluminium<\/span> is the worst. This time around Barclays suggests the precious metals are most likely to gain, gold having a 62% chance and silver a 63% chance of ending September higher.<\/p>\n

\n\tNat gas is given a 56% chance of posting a gain and West Texas Intermediate (WTI<\/span>) a 54% chance, well above aluminium<\/span> at just 32% and higher than copper at 48%.<\/p>\n

\n\tFixed income markets tend to deliver bullish performance in September at the long end of the curve but Barclays notes the short-end tends to buck the trend. Barclays doesn't given any 10-year securities an even money or better change of seeing yield gains this time around but the story at the short-end is somewhat different.<\/p>\n

\n\tThree month Libor<\/span> and Euribor<\/span> securities tend to deliver their worst monthly performance in September and this is reflected in 67% and 68% chances of yield gains respectively. Yields are also tipped to rise on three-month Euroyen<\/span> securities.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn terms of yield curves, the odds of a steepening<\/span> are highest at 78% for UK 2-year versus 10-year securities, while similar US, EU and Japanese yield curves are given only around 40% chances of steepening<\/span> by Barclays.<\/p>\n

\n\tOn relative value grounds Barclays sees Japanese versus US 2-year bonds as offering the lowest likelihood of a widening in spread at just 32%, rising to a 50% chance of a widening for UK versus US 2-year bonds. <\/p>\n

\n\t <\/p>\n

\n\tFind out why FNArena<\/span> subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Barclays Capital has analysed seasonal trends for September.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[23,21,29,24,22],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58775"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58775\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}