##{"id":59132,"date":"2011-11-10T11:21:12","date_gmt":"2011-11-10T00:21:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/10\/prima-biomed-and-the-topic-of-cancer\/"},"modified":"2011-11-10T11:21:12","modified_gmt":"2011-11-10T00:21:12","slug":"prima-biomed-and-the-topic-of-cancer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/10\/prima-biomed-and-the-topic-of-cancer\/","title":{"rendered":"Prima Biomed And The Topic Of Cancer"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\t– Prima Biomed<\/span> developing C-Vac<\/span> ovarian cancer vaccine
\n\t– Nomura<\/span> initiates coverage with a Buy rating<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tBy Chris Shaw<\/p>\n

\n\tPrima Biomed<\/span> ((PRR<\/span>)) is developing a recurrence vaccine for ovarian cancer called C-Vac<\/span>, which is an immunotherapeutic<\/span> vaccine. Immunotherapy<\/span> is a technology that uses the body's own processes to destroy cancer cells, the advantage being less side effects compared to external chemotherapeutic agents.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe process sees the patients own dendritic<\/span> immune cells sensitised<\/span> against components of the patient's ovarian cancer. These sensitised<\/span> cells then attach to cancel cells and transport them to the immune system where the cancer cells are destroyed.<\/p>\n

\n\tNomura<\/span> has initiated coverage on Prima Biomed<\/span> with a Buy rating, attracted to both the technology being developed and the potential for the share price to benefit as clinical data from the company is released to the market.<\/p>\n

\n\tAt present, Prima Biomed<\/span> is preparing for a Phase III clinical trial, which is due to commence in the current quarter. Final data from the trial is expected in 2014, though data from a Phase IIb<\/span> clinical trial should be released in the final quarter of next year and so provide some interim news flow.<\/p>\n

\n\tPotential partnering opportunities are the likely source of positive news for Prima Biomed<\/span> between now and the release of Phase III trial data.<\/p>\n

\n\tAccording to Nomura<\/span>, the potential market size of Prima Biomed's<\/span> C-Vac<\/span> treatment is around US$2 billion annually. Assuming the treatment can be used on 25% of those females with a recurrence of epithelial ovarian cancer, the potential market is around US$500 million per year.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe five-year relative survival rate for Australian women with ovarian cancer has increased to 40% in 2000-2006 from 33% in 1982-1987. But as Nomura<\/span> notes, 90% of sub-optimally debulked<\/span> patients and 70% of optimally debulked<\/span> patients relapse in the 18-24 months following primary treatment. Nomura<\/span> expects Prima Biomed<\/span> will, at least initially, aim for regulatory approval as a treatment for recurrent cancer.<\/p>\n

\n\tSuch patients are traditionally re-treated with platinum-based chemotherapy, often in combination with other agents. One problem is cumulative toxicity from primary therapy can preclude re-treatment with the likes of paclitaxel<\/span> and carboplatin<\/span>. This suggests a clear market for Prima Biomed<\/span> if the company's trials show its technology delivers positive results.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn previous Phase I clinical tests C-Vac<\/span> has been shown to be safe, while Nomura<\/span> notes 19% of patients responded to the treatment in Phase IIa<\/span> tests conducted in Australia. Given the results were not statistically significant, the upcoming Phase III trial will be the key to assessing the effectiveness of Prima Biomed's<\/span> technology more thoroughly.<\/p>\n

\n\tRevenues could come before the Phase III trials are completed, as Nomura<\/span> notes the Dubai Healthcare City (DHCC<\/span>) has granted approval for marketing and distribution of C-Vac<\/span> in the DHCC<\/span>. If Prima Biomed<\/span> can finalise<\/span> an Australian manufacturing licence<\/span> and a test run to show logistical chain of custody from Dubai to Australia and back, first sales of C-Vac<\/span> could come before the end of this year.<\/p>\n

\n\tEarly revenues are unlikely to be enough to allow Prima Biomed<\/span> to avoid going back to the market to raise additional funds. Nomura<\/span> suggests a further capital raising will be needed to allow Phase III clinical trials to continue, as the cost of such a trial can be as much as US$60,000 per patient and the trial is planned to involve 800 women.<\/p>\n

\n\tFactoring in a capital raising and the expected time-line for the Phase III trial and bringing C-Vac<\/span> to market, Nomura<\/span> has set a valuation based price target for Prima Biomed<\/span> of $0.31. This implies significant upside of better than 60% relative to the current share price.<\/p>\n

\n\tThere is little with which to compare the estimates of Nomura<\/span>, as a market capitalisation<\/span> for Prima Biomed<\/span> of around US$225 million means the stock receives little coverage. None of the eight brokers in the FNArena<\/span> database provide research on the company.<\/p>\n

\n\tShares in Prima Biomed<\/span> today are unchanged as at 12.00pm<\/span> with a last sale price of $0.175. This compares to a trading range over the past year of $0.10 to $0.42.<\/p>\n

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