{"id":59242,"date":"2011-12-01T10:21:35","date_gmt":"2011-11-30T23:21:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/01\/beware-an-iran-scorned\/"},"modified":"2011-12-01T10:21:35","modified_gmt":"2011-11-30T23:21:35","slug":"beware-an-iran-scorned","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/01\/beware-an-iran-scorned\/","title":{"rendered":"Beware An Iran Scorned"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n\tBy Jonathan Barratt<\/span><\/div>\n
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\n\tOil continues to benefit from the geopolitical concerns in the Middle East in particularly the new developments in Iran. The Iranian Government on Monday expelled the British ambassador and only last night Iranian students in Tehran stormed the British Embassy’s compound breaking windows and throwing petrol bombs. It looks like the Iranians are looking to irritate those countries whom have imposed sanctions against them. We suspect that the Iranian Government will move its frustrations towards the US and Canadian Embassies in due course as tension surrounding the trade sanctions imposed grows.<\/div>\n
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\n\tIran is the second largest OPEC oil producer and is the fifth largest producer of the commodity in the world. In addition to this, it exports 2.523 million bpd<\/span>, which makes it that third largest exporter and as 35% of seaborne oil travels through the Straits of Hormuz<\/span>, which borders Iran. We would have thought the market would have paid a little more attention to what is happening.<\/div>\n
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\n\t\t\tIn the past, as can be seen from the chart below, when issues concerning Iran emerge we have seen increases of between 15 to 30% in the price of oil. The response so far seems to be surprisingly muted.  We suspect that given the lack of response from the market investors believe that Iran is just bluffing and the requirement for external assistance to help its ailing economy has precedence. If you exclude oil from Industrial Production the economy is going backwards -1.1%. Let’s hope we do not see any desperate measures taken by Iran. It’s a nervous time.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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\n\tGiven the steady increase in the price of the commodity we suspect that the market is a little more optimistic concerning the developments in Europe and increased Consumer Confidence in the US, in fact it climbed the most since 2003 by jumping from 40.9 to 56 in October. Keep and eye on US numbers on Friday and on any escalation of violence in Iran. If US 103.75 (WTI<\/span>)is taken out then we will have to review our current bearish outlook.<\/p>\n

\tChart Point:<\/u><\/div>\n

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\n\tTechnically, the market has failed to push lower having bounced back though the downward trend line. This indicates that the market is not ready to trend lower and as a result we look towards the market trading back in the range and testing the topside of US 103.75. Our experience in trading Oil suggests we keep an eye on this level as if it is broken the chances are that it will continue towards a new and higher range. If short, stops must be placed above there to. Momentum indicators remain mixed for us.<\/div>\n
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\n\tProduced by Jonathan Barratt direct from the trading desks of Commodity Broking Services, Barratt's Bulletin provides expert analysis of commodity markets, global indices and foreign exchange movements. Click here <\/a>to take a no obligation 21-day trial to Barratt's or to learn more visit www.barrattsbulletin.com<\/a>. Content included in this article is not by association necessarily the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).<\/em><\/div>\n

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\n\tThis report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, products, securities or investments. This report does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote products or any other products, securities or investments. This report does not purport to make any recommendations or provide any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of products, securities or investments, including, without limitation, any advice to the effect that any related transaction is appropriate for any investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the statements in this report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.<\/i><\/p>\n

\t <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jonathan Barratt of Barratt’s Bulletin believes oil markets are yet to price in the potential fallout from global sanctions against Iranian crude exports.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[24],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59242"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59242"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59242\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59242"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59242"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59242"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}