##{"id":59245,"date":"2011-12-02T08:40:59","date_gmt":"2011-12-01T21:40:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/02\/the-overnight-report-reality-check-2\/"},"modified":"2011-12-02T08:40:59","modified_gmt":"2011-12-01T21:40:59","slug":"the-overnight-report-reality-check-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/02\/the-overnight-report-reality-check-2\/","title":{"rendered":"The Overnight Report: Reality Check"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n\tBy Greg Peel<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe Dow lost 25 points or 0.2% while the S&amp;P fell 0.2% to 1244 but the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Nasdaq<\/span> gained 0.2%.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe first of the month is always global manufacturing PMI day and the news across the globe has not been particularly rosy over the last 24 hours.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n\tAustralia&#039;s manufacturing sector managed to struggle up to a reading of 47.8 in November from 47.4 in October but remains very much in contraction (result under 50) as it has now for many months. The most disappointing of all results came from China, where the official PMI fell to 49.0 from 50.4 to mark its first <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">contractionary<\/span> result since 2009. It had earlier appeared that China&#039;s PMI might be swinging to the upside once more, but Beijing&#039;s tightening measures and the impact of weaker export demand from Europe have clearly taken their toll.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tBeijing nevertheless reduced its bank reserve ratio requirement by a &ldquo;double-whammy&rdquo; 50 basis points on Wednesday to mark its first easing of policy constraints since the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">GFC<\/span> stimulus package was unleashed. The move was either part of the global central bank effort of money loosening, or a response to the about to be released PMI, or both. HSBC&#039;s independent Chinese PMI reading was even worse, falling to 47.7 from 51.0. HSBC&#039;s number leans more towards smaller Chinese businesses compared to the state-owned bias in Beijing&#039;s number.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tNo great shock that the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">eurozone<\/span> PMI fell to 46.4 from 47.1 as we assume now the region must be in the recession it had to have, while the UK&#039;s fall to 47.6 from 47.8 will be disappointing in the face of ongoing QE. All of the above, one notes, are November results in contraction, so God bless America. The US PMI rose a to a better than expected 52.7 from 50.8.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tIt was not all good news on the US economic data front last night nevertheless. Chain store sales growth fell to 3.2% year-on-year in November compared to 3.7% in October. While the result belied solid Black Friday sales, economists put the difference down to steep discounting. After Wednesday&#039;s shockingly positive ADP private sector jobs number, Wall Street is looking for a good non-farm payrolls result tonight as well. But last night weekly new jobless claims crept back up over 400,000 once more to let a bit of air out of the balloon.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n\tOn the other hand, November&#039;s vehicle sales numbers for the US were the strongest all year.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThere was relief in Europe after bond auctions from both the Spanish and French governments met with solid demand. Yields were more substantial than equivalent previous auctions but the demand did see some of the upward pressure ease. Spain sold a net <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">E3.75bn<\/span> of various maturities with three years settling at 5.2%, up from 3.6% in October. France sold a net <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">E4.3bn<\/span> across the curve and while yields on five and thirty year bonds were higher than in October (2.4% for the fives compared to 1.9%), yields settled for tens and fifteens were actually lower than in October.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tFrench president Nicholas <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Sarkozy<\/span> last night reinforced his intention to push forward suggested changes to the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">eurozone<\/span> treaty in order to bring the region into closer fiscal union. German chancellor Angela Merkel is due to address the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Bundestag<\/span> tonight and will echo those sentiments. <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">ECB<\/span> president Mario <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Draghi<\/span> is also in on the act, hinting that once closer fiscal union is achieved in the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">eurozone<\/span> the central bank will be ready to step up its activities.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThis is what the world wants to hear, and has been wanting to hear for some time. Unfortunately implementation will also take some time.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n\tSo it was that Wall Street took a breather last night after Wednesday night&#039;s huge move and ahead of tonight&#039;s all-important job numbers. Volumes again fell back to minimal. All talk now is of a Santa Rally.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe definition of a Santa Rally has expanded somewhat over the years. Originally it referred only to the week between Christmas and New Year which for the US is the last week of the accounting year for most. A bit of window dressing is typical and the joke is that Santa brought a rally. Nowadays, however, it tends to refer to trade leading up to Christmas given stats show December is often one of the best months of the year for equities. It&#039;s thus fingers crossed on Wall Street for a good run from here but the <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">sceptics<\/span> wonder what it is that will drive such a rally now that we&#039;re back into a waiting process with Europe and given the sort of global economic data above. We may now simply meander.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tOther markets were largely meandering last night. The euro rose slightly to see the US dollar index slip to 78.32 while the Aussie lost some heat in falling half a cent to US$1.0228. Gold fell US$3.20 to US$1744.90\/oz.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tBase metals were mostly weaker after their big runs on Wednesday albeit copper and <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">aluminium<\/span> still managed to close higher. There was also a bit of a square-up in oil markets with Brent falling US$1.64 to US$109.04\/<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">bbl<\/span> and West Texas losing <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">US38c<\/span> to US$99.98\/<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">bbl<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">SPI<\/span> Overnight was up 2 points.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tConsensus has US jobs rising by 125,000 tonight with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 9.0%. Personally I think economists might as well simply wheel out a dart board given results are often wildly different to expectations, and then wildly revised again up to two months later.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<em>[Note: All paying members at <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">FNArena<\/span> are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.]<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets took a breather last night after global PMIs painted a less than rosy picture. Dow down 25.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[23,21,27,29,24,41,22,46,26],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59245"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59245"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59245\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}