##{"id":59402,"date":"2012-01-24T12:53:17","date_gmt":"2012-01-24T01:53:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/24\/rudis-view-the-weatherman-did-it\/"},"modified":"2012-01-24T12:53:17","modified_gmt":"2012-01-24T01:53:17","slug":"rudis-view-the-weatherman-did-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/24\/rudis-view-the-weatherman-did-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Rudi&#8217;s View: The Weatherman Did It!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n\tBy Rudi <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Filapek-Vandyck<\/span>, Editor <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">FNArena<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\n\tI spent most of my year-end break in New York with local citizens reminding me, every day, about the unusually mild weather. Despite all my preparations in advance, it didn&#039;t take long for me to figure out that a white Christmas was simply not on the cards. Most of my family lives in Europe. There the same theme reigns whenever we call or email each other; the weather is unusually mild for the time of the year.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tIn financial markets, most attention from weather deviations is usually dedicated to energy and agricultural markets, with focus on lesser demand for the first (hence prices should come down) and potential disruptions to crops in the second market which can have significant impact on short term prices.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThis year, however, I would like to put forward that the unusually high temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to cause a noteworthy impact on economic data in general. This because not only are this year&#039;s temperatures too high compared with historical norms, last year&#039;s winter was unusually cold making the different weather related dynamics for economic data extra-pronounced since we all like to compare them on an annual basis.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThanks to analysts at Barclays we now have a chart which shows exactly what I am talking about. Below are the UK average mean temperature deviations up until November and it becomes immediately obvious the differences with temperatures in 2010 are unusually large.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/ckfinder\/userfiles\/images\/UK Temperatures Deviation.jpg\" style=\"width: 670px;height: 294px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\n\tBottom line (in my view): let&#039;s not get too excited about better-than-anticipated economic data in Europe and the US just yet. If my thesis is correct and the weather is playing havoc with this year&#039;s data, then surely as night follows day, we will see a &quot;correction&quot; kicking in at some point. When exactly that is might be dependent on&#8230; the weather.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>(Do note that, in line with all my <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">analyses<\/span>, appearances and presentations, all of&nbsp;the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)&nbsp;<\/strong><span>&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\n\tP.S. I &#8211; All paying members at <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">FNArena<\/span> are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi&#039;s View stories. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of &#039;Rudi&#039;s View&#039;. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi&#039;s View story has been published on the website.<span>&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\n\tP.S. II &#8211; <span style=\"font-style: italic\">If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included<\/span>, we <span><span class=\"scayt-misspell\">apologise<\/span><\/span>, but technical limitations are to blame.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tP.S. III &#8211; A paid subscription now comes with two e-booklets written by myself; &quot;Five Observations (That Matter)&quot; plus the recent &quot;The Big De-Rating&quot;.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe first one will help with using <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">FNArena&#039;s<\/span> tools and applications, the second one explains how not to become a dinosaur in a changing investment climate. If you are a paying subscriber and you haven&#039;t downloaded your copies as yet, send an email to info@fnarena.com<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<span>&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is it possible that current market optimism is built on unusually mild weather in the Northern Hemisphere?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[85],"tags":[48],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59402"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59402"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59402\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}