##{"id":59599,"date":"2012-03-05T11:13:06","date_gmt":"2012-03-05T00:13:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/03\/05\/is-the-yen-fiscal-year-end-effect-a-myth\/"},"modified":"2012-03-05T11:13:06","modified_gmt":"2012-03-05T00:13:06","slug":"is-the-yen-fiscal-year-end-effect-a-myth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/03\/05\/is-the-yen-fiscal-year-end-effect-a-myth\/","title":{"rendered":"Is The Yen Fiscal Year End Effect A Myth?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\t – ANZ<\/span> sees no sign of yen repatriation strength
\n\t – Data analysis shows from mid-March yen tends to fall against US dollar
\n\t – ANZ<\/span> suggests those looking for yen weakness wait to establish positions<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tBy Chris Shaw<\/p>\n

\n\tMarch signals the end of the Japanese financial year but in the view of ANZ<\/span> Banking Group, yen strength from repatriation flows at the end of the year is more of a myth than reality. In fact, the bank's senior FX strategist, Khoon<\/span> Goh<\/span>, notes the yen tends to weaken between mid-March and early April.<\/p>\n

\n\tAnalysing<\/span> the average monthly percent changes for the USD\/JPY<\/span> pair shows for March the increase is around 0.3%, meaning the yen tends to fall this month. Since 2000 the USD\/JPY<\/span> rate has risen in March in six of the years, while falling in the other six.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn contrast the yen tends to exhibit its greatest monthly strength in August, the USD\/JPY<\/span> rate posting an average decline for this month of 1.6% since 2000.<\/p>\n

\n\t $\"\"$ <\/p>\n

\n\tLooking more closely at the USD\/JPY<\/span> moves, Goh<\/span> notes the first half of March tends to show some yen strength, then from mid-March yen weakness takes over until early in April. This is the same period as there is supposed to be repatriation of funds by Japanese corporations.<\/p>\n

\n\tFor Mid-March to early April the USD\/JPY<\/span> has actually risen in each of the past 10 years with the exception of 2004, with Goh<\/span> noting the median percentage change is actually significant at 1.9%.<\/p>\n

\n\t $\"\"$ <\/p>\n

\n\tANZ's core view is for the USD\/JPY<\/span> to stay weak, though near-term the bank sees scope for the USD\/JPY<\/span> to head higher if the seasonal pattern identified again plays out. This leads Goh<\/span> to suggest those wanting to position themselves for yen weakness may be best to wait until mid-March.
\n\t <\/p>\n

\n\tTechnical limitations<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tIf you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included<\/span>, we apologise<\/span>, but technical limitations are to blame.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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