{"id":59747,"date":"2012-04-03T09:59:43","date_gmt":"2012-04-02T23:59:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/03\/april-usually-good-for-equities-and-crude-oil\/"},"modified":"2012-04-03T09:59:43","modified_gmt":"2012-04-02T23:59:43","slug":"april-usually-good-for-equities-and-crude-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/03\/april-usually-good-for-equities-and-crude-oil\/","title":{"rendered":"April Usually Good For Equities And Crude Oil"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\t – April usually a good month for equities
\n\t – Energy prices also tend to increase
\n\t – Forex<\/span> markets mixed this month
\n\t – Fixed interest markets also mixed<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tBy Chris Shaw<\/p>\n

\n\tMonthly seasonal trends for equities are generally positive in April according to technical analysts at Barclays Capital, with the month the best of the year for Australia's All Ords<\/span> and France's CAC<\/span> index.<\/p>\n

\n\tApril is also the best month for Germany's DAX and the Dow Jones as measured by mean returns and the best for Switzerland's SMI<\/span> index in median return terms. Barclays gives all major indexes a better than 50% chance of posting a gain for the month, ranging from odds of 56% for India's Sensex<\/span> to 75% for the All Ords<\/span>.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn commodity markets, the analysts note energy tends to be the best market in April, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI<\/span>) prices tending to rise by nearly 2.75% on average for the month. While silver's median returns are the worst for the month, Barclays suggests aluminium<\/span> offers the lowest odds of an advance at 38%, against silver at 44%.<\/p>\n

\n\tOther commodities offer positive odds of an advance, ranging from copper at 52% to gold at 56% and natural gas at 67%. WTI<\/span> is given 57% odds of an advance by the analysts at Barclays.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn foreign exchange markets performance in April tends to be more mixed, with the New Zealand dollar generally a steady performer against the US dollar and South Africa's rand the star performer overall relative to the greenback.<\/p>\n

\n\tAgainst the US dollar this month Barclays ascribes odds of an advance for the major currencies of 59% for the British pound, 54% for the Australian dollar and the yen and 63% for the Kiwi currency, against essentially even money odds for the euro. The euro is given a 54% chance of gaining on the yen, while the Australian dollar is regarded as unlikely to post gains against its New Zealand counterpart.<\/p>\n

\n\tFor fixed interest markets, Barclays notes April tends to be the worst month of the year as measured by mean returns for US and Swiss 10-year bonds and Bunds<\/span>, with all given a better than 50% chance of a yield increase this month.<\/p>\n

\n\tAustralian and New Zealand 10-year bonds are both given a 48% chance of a yield gain in April, while at the shorter end most securities apart from 3m<\/span> Sterling and 3m<\/span> EuroYen<\/span> securities are given better than 50% chances of yield gains.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe standout in yield curve terms of the US 2s10s<\/span> curve, which tends to steepen the most in average terms. In contrast, the Japanese 2s10s<\/span> curve is the only yield curve that tends to flatten in April. A widening in relative value trend dominates the month, Barclays noting the most likely to see a widening are JPvUS<\/span> 2s<\/span> and JPvEU<\/span> 2s<\/span>.<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\tFind out why FNArena<\/span> subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The technical analysts at Barclays Capital notes while April tends to be a good month for equity and energy markets, results are more mixed for forex and fixed interest markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[23,21,29,24,22],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59747"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59747"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59747\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}