{"id":59763,"date":"2012-04-05T10:19:03","date_gmt":"2012-04-05T00:19:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/05\/oil-risk-remains-to-the-upside\/"},"modified":"2012-04-05T10:19:03","modified_gmt":"2012-04-05T00:19:03","slug":"oil-risk-remains-to-the-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/05\/oil-risk-remains-to-the-upside\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Risk Remains To The Upside"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n\tBy Jonathan Barratt<\/span><\/div>\n
\n\t <\/div>\n
\n\tCrude oil, down on diminishing optimism, up on growing confidence in the manufacturing sectors. Honestly, it is a little hard trying to trade the commodity at the moment. However, as we suggested in an Interview earlier this week with NDTV<\/span> Profit, India, the elements for a bull market are not that far away. The impulsive move we have seen is not on the back of eclipsing developments in Iran, rather strong economic news with supporting rhetoric that the global recovery is under way, in particular in the two strongest economies the US and China. Naturally, this could be reversed next week, however the volatility of the move suggests the rally can be with us for a while. (The range is US102.50 to US 108.00).<\/p>\n

\n\t\tThe situation in Iran looks to be cooling with Obama inches away from imposing additional sanctions. At the moment we feel that the extension of the time line granted to Iran as a result of it allowing IAEA representatives to inspect their facilities is slowly coming to an end. We wait for the Agency to report.  In the meantime the US has stepped up its plans to intensify sanctions. The key here is how much “push” will the US give before Iran bites back.<\/p>\n

\n\t\tAn interesting twist to the developments has to do with Saudi Arabia and its ability to increase production. The last comment we heard was that they had 25% spare capacity. This is not to be. Saudi Arabia managed to placate market concerns and increase production, during the earlier Iran conflict, Iraq, Kuwait and more recently Libya. When we lost 1.5 million barrels as a result of Libya coming off line the Saudis filled the gap. However, with Iran exporting 2.2 million barrels a day the question is whether or not this can be made up. If the situation in Iran deteriorated further then it is questionable that the Saudis’ can make up the gap in this lost product and the US knows this. After all, why has it decided to provide exclusions to some countries?<\/p>\n

\n\t\tAlthough, the news across the wires is not as frequent as before,  this mess continues to smoulder and by no stretch of the imagination is it over. This should keep the Middle Eastern premium alive and kicking. So keep an eye on dips.<\/p>\n

\n\t\tChart Point<\/u><\/p>\n

\n\t\tThe [WTI] range is US108.40 to US102.50. US 104.50 the market is flirting with at the moment. Momentum indicators are mixed however we need to see US102.50 hold to conclude that the range is a “true range”.<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\"\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n\t <\/div>\n
\n\tProduced by Jonathan Barratt direct from the trading desks of Commodity Broking Services, Barratt's Bulletin provides expert analysis of commodity markets, global indices and foreign exchange movements. Click here <\/a>to take a no obligation 21-day trial to Barratt's or to learn more visit www.barrattsbulletin.com<\/a>. Content included in this article is not by association necessarily the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).<\/em><\/div>\n

\n\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\n\tThis report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, products, securities or investments. This report does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote products or any other products, securities or investments. This report does not purport to make any recommendations or provide any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of products, securities or investments, including, without limitation, any advice to the effect that any related transaction is appropriate for any investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the statements in this report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.<\/i><\/p>\n

\t <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jonathan Barratt of Barratt’s Bulletin warns that while news may have gone quiet from Iran, the risk of heightened tensions has increased.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[24],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59763"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59763\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}