{"id":60045,"date":"2012-06-04T11:16:06","date_gmt":"2012-06-04T01:16:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/04\/june-usually-a-struggle-for-equities-and-commodities\/"},"modified":"2012-06-04T11:16:06","modified_gmt":"2012-06-04T01:16:06","slug":"june-usually-a-struggle-for-equities-and-commodities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/04\/june-usually-a-struggle-for-equities-and-commodities\/","title":{"rendered":"June Usually A Struggle For Equities And Commodities"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\t – June marks the start of traditional bearish summer season for equities
\n\t – US dollar usually struggles this month, commodity currencies mixed
\n\t – Going becomes tougher for commodities in June
\n\t – Bonds markets also tend to be bearish for the month <\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tBy Chris Shaw<\/p>\n

\n\tAn analysis of monthly season trends by Barclays Capital shows June is the beginning of the bearish summer season for equities, as evidenced by a seven year losing streak for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA<\/span>) this month. June is also the worst month of the year for South Africa's JSE<\/span>. <\/p>\n

\n\tLooking at this year's June, Barclays suggests the likelihood of an advance runs below 50% for a number of major markets, including Germany's DAX, the FTSE100<\/span> in London, the TSX<\/span> in Canada and Australia's All Ords<\/span>. Those markets where the odds favour<\/span> an advance include Japan's Nikkei and TOPIX<\/span> indies<\/span>, the HangSeng<\/span> in Hong Kong and India's Sensex<\/span> as well as the S&P500<\/span> in the US. Likelihood of an advance for these markets range from just over 50% to around 70% according to Barclays.<\/p>\n

\n\tHistorical data show the US dollar also struggles in June against most of the other major currencies. The odds of the greenback gaining against the euro, the British pound and the yen are estimated to be less than 50% this time around, while euro gains against currencies such as the pound, the Norwegian Krone<\/span> and Swedish Krona<\/span> are considered more than likely. <\/p>\n

\n\tCommodity currency performance is likely to be mixed, Barclays noting the odds of the Australian dollar gaining on the US dollar are around 56%, while it is more of an even money proposition for the Canadian dollar against the greenback.<\/p>\n

\n\tCommodities themselves tend to find the going tougher in June, As Barclays points out the CRB<\/span> Index typically loses ground, though in a minor fashion, this month. Odds of advance for the index are seen as broadly even money this time around, while Barclays suggests the precious metals will find the going tougher and have only around a 40% chance of gaining this month.<\/p>\n

\n\tBase metals performance is likely to be more mixed, as Barclays suggests copper has a little better than 62% chance of advancing this month while aluminium<\/span> is given just more than a 40% chance of gaining. The odds of an increase in West Texas Intermediate prices this June are seen as around 52%.<\/p>\n

\n\tJune is typically a bearish month for bonds, to the extent Barclays suggests the likelihood of a yield increase this month is less than 50% only for US and Australian 10-year bonds among the major 10-year offerings.<\/p>\n

\n\tAt the shorter end Barclays sees the likelihood of an advance for 5-year US bonds of 48%, which compares to odds of 37% for US 2-year securities. Three month securities are seen as offering mixed performance, Barclays noting the chance of a yield increase for 3-month LIBOR<\/span> is just 37% against around 60% for 3-month EuroYen<\/span> securities.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn terms of yield curves and relative value, US 2\/10-year bonds show a stronger flattening tendency than any other curve in June according to Barclays, while no curves see any steepening<\/span> as measured by median returns. <\/p>\n

\n\tFrom a relative value perspective Barclays notes the odds of a widening are greatest for Japan v EU 2-year bonds at around 57%, which compares to odds of around 29% for EU v US 2-year securities.<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\tFind out why FNArena<\/span> subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysis of monthly seasonal trends for Barclays Capital shows June is the start of a summer struggle for equities, while the US dollar and commodities usually also find the going tougher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[23,21,29,24,22,26],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60045"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60045"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60045\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}