{"id":60359,"date":"2012-08-02T15:52:33","date_gmt":"2012-08-02T05:52:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/02\/ecb-sets-itself-up-to-be-hero-or-zero\/"},"modified":"2012-08-02T15:52:33","modified_gmt":"2012-08-02T05:52:33","slug":"ecb-sets-itself-up-to-be-hero-or-zero","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/02\/ecb-sets-itself-up-to-be-hero-or-zero\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB Sets Itself Up To Be Hero Or Zero"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tBy Andrew Taylor, Market Strategist GFT<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\tTop Headlines<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\to FOMC delivers as expected and remains firm<\/p>\n

\n\to ECB meeting main event risk ahead > Pressure to deliver<\/p>\n

\n\to AU Trade Balance & Retail Sales Data surprises on both counts<\/p>\n

\n\to Market Moves:<\/p>\n

\n\t• EUR and AUD off slightly post FOMC<\/span> meeting<\/p>\n

\n\t• Asian equities mixed on low volume trade ahead of ECB<\/span> meeting<\/p>\n

\n\t• Precious Metals and Copper meet resistance post FOMC<\/span> meeting<\/p>\n

\n\t <\/p>\n

\n\tUS markets provided the considerable action overnight as the Federal Reserve held firm on its monetary policy stance. The markets by and large had this result factored in, although ‘selling on fact’ saw equities, commodities and risk currencies move lower.<\/p>\n

\n\tChatter quickly returned to today’s ECB<\/span> meeting where the market is in no mood for disappointment. The last few days have given traders time to question their optimistic positions based on President Draghi’s<\/span> comments last week. This has the market feeling that the ECB<\/span> owes them the result that they have bought into and anything less will be a betrayal of their trust.<\/p>\n

\n\tAustralia showed a strong surprise in its retail sales figures for June coming in at 1.0% beating the 0.7% the market had forecast. This rise will be short lived as it is a direct reflection of government handouts delivered at the time to boost spending to which it succeeded in doing. Australia also managed to beat Trade Balance expectations convincingly as it posted a A$ 9M<\/span> surplus against a A$347 deficit forecast. Exports were expected to be the damaging side of the ledger when in fact it held up nicely amidst weakening commodity prices and perceived slowing demand. This will boost sentiment for the economy as it proves resilient to economic woes that are happening around them.<\/p>\n

\n\t <\/p>\n

\n\tOutlook<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tIn the lead up to the FOMC<\/span> meeting, markets managed to reignite<\/span> another round of risk asset buying in anticipation of action being taken. This is likely to happen again before the ECB<\/span> announcement which will provide good selling opportunities as the price approaches proven resistance levels. On release the ECB<\/span> will need to beat the market’s expectations to push higher, something that is possible but not probable. If the ECB<\/span> delivers as expected then the markets may see a brief cheer rally before profit taking and realities reclaim its rightful ownership.<\/p>\n

\n\t <\/p>\n

\n\tEconomic Events to watch:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\t0830 UK Jul CIPS<\/span> Construction PMI<\/p>\n

\n\t0900 EU Jun PPI<\/p>\n

\n\t1100 UK Aug UK interest rate decision<\/p>\n

\n\t1130 US Jul Challenger Job-Cut Report<\/p>\n

\n\t1145 EU EU interest rate announcement<\/p>\n

\n\t1230 EU ECB<\/span> President Draghi<\/span> Speech<\/p>\n

\n\t1230 US Jul 28 Initial Jobless Claims<\/p>\n

\n\t1345 US Jul ISM-NY Report on Business<\/p>\n

\n\t1400 US Jun Factory Orders<\/p>\n

\n\tFor more intraday analysis and trade ideas, follow me on twitter @ATaylor_GFT<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\tAll views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's<\/span> (see our disclaimer).<\/p>\n

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GFT Market Strategist Andrew Taylor remains sceptical about what the ECB might announce next and whether financial markets will rise post the event.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60359"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60359"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60359\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}