{"id":60389,"date":"2012-08-09T10:08:01","date_gmt":"2012-08-09T00:08:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/09\/upside-trend-for-oil\/"},"modified":"2012-08-09T10:08:01","modified_gmt":"2012-08-09T00:08:01","slug":"upside-trend-for-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/09\/upside-trend-for-oil\/","title":{"rendered":"Upside Trend For Oil"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n\tBy Jonathan Barratt<\/span><\/div>\n
\n\t <\/div>\n
\n\tAs we mentioned last week its all about optimism, the weather and geopolitical concerns. The 5.8% two-day advance in the commodity was not only unexpected but well received as it has certainly helped our long position. Investors feel comfortable about remaining long as the fundamental and technical pictures both look good.<\/p>\n

\n\t\tThe positive non-farm payroll number (+167k<\/span>) kicked in and optimism about the recovery was renewed, which backed up the recent draws in inventory we had be experiencing and which are also forecast to continue. Data from API suggested that inventories dropped a further 5.38 million barrels [two weeks ago] and on Thursday we get [last week's] DOE data where we are expecting draws will continue by 1.55 million [draws were 3.7m – Ed.] .<\/p>\n

\n\t\tAll told it appears that more Americans are choosing to go tramping around the country in cars rather than opting for expensive overseas vacations and this is helping to push crude higher.  We expect that as this is a peak period for demand, the draws will continue. Backing up the optimism over the recovery and demand we have seen the Miami-based National Hurricane Centre reporting that Hurricane Ernesto is picking up strength and threatening the coasts of Mexico and Belize. It is not just the onslaught of Ernesto, the number two Hurricane for the season, that emphasises the threat of disruptions of production but the fact that we have one storm cell in the Pacific and two in the Atlantic that have the potential this week to turn into Hurricanes.<\/p>\n

\n\t\tSo whilst the market was focusing on the potential upgrades in the storms, news from Syria of an attack against the President al-Assad renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We have also heard that Syria’s PM Hijab has defected to the rebels. Whilst news on an escalation of violence remains current expect the premium in oil prices to resonate through the market.<\/p>\n

\n\t\tWe took a long position at US89.60 (WTI) and added to this position at US92.12. If we get a steep rejection of US95.00 we may be tempted to take profits.<\/p>\n

\n\t\tGlad to be out of the natural gas trade. We have just registered a low of US2.80 and will look for signs that the US drought will continue. On this trade keep close to weather forecasts in the US as there is currently a strong correlation.<\/p>\n

\n\t\tChart Point<\/u><\/p>\n

\n\t\tThe market has traded through resistance at US93.50 mentioned last week and if we get a daily close above, we expect further gains. Momentum indicators look positive. Good support can now be found at US90.00, and resistance stands at US93.50.<\/p>\n

\n\t\tWe remain positive the complex.
\n\t\t <\/p>\n

\n\t\t.\"\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n\t <\/div>\n
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\n\t\tEdited by Jonathan Barratt, Barratt's Bulletin is a weekly subscription newsletter that provides expert analysis of commodity markets, global indices and foreign exchange movements. Click here <\/a>to take a no obligation 21-day trial to Barratt's or to learn more visit www.barrattsbulletin.com<\/a>. Content included in this article is not by association necessarily the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\n\tThis report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, products, securities or investments. This report does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote products or any other products, securities or investments. This report does not purport to make any recommendations or provide any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of products, securities or investments, including, without limitation, any advice to the effect that any related transaction is appropriate for any investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the statements in this report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.<\/i><\/p>\n

\t <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jonathan Barratt of Barratt’s Bulletin cites US summer demand, harricanes and ongoing geopolitical tensions as reasons oil remains supported.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[24],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60389"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60389"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60389\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}