{"id":60505,"date":"2012-08-31T11:55:24","date_gmt":"2012-08-31T01:55:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/31\/your-editor-on-twitter-107\/"},"modified":"2012-08-31T11:55:24","modified_gmt":"2012-08-31T01:55:24","slug":"your-editor-on-twitter-107","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/31\/your-editor-on-twitter-107\/","title":{"rendered":"Your Editor On Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tBy Rudi Filapek-Vandyck<\/span>, Editor FNArena<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\tI joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch<\/span>, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing<\/span> financial markets myself.<\/p>\n

\n\tWhile I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek<\/span>.<\/p>\n

\n\tFor those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:<\/p>\n

\n\t– Deutsche Bank anticipates more delay for Malaysian TOL<\/span> for Lynas<\/span> and thus rating sinks to Sell; predicts $150m<\/span> capital raising, target 50c<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t– UBS still anticipates Q4 seasonal uptick in iron ore demand and prices with spot fines to rise above US$125\/t cfr (from below US$90\/t now)<\/p>\n

\n\t– On the topic of FMG: at current spot would require a further US$1.5-2.0b of external funding, on Macquarie's estimates; expect asset sales<\/p>\n

\n\t– Fun with leverage… Macquarie reports current spot iron ore price, if maintained (not base case), would cut FMG profits by 80-100%<\/p>\n

\n\t– Danske Bank predicts investors will wake up in 2013 to what will be "well supplied" markets for industrial metals, prices expected to drop<\/p>\n

\n\t– Uh-Oh… Morgan Stanley's Minack does not expect 2012 repeat of year-end rallies 2010 & 2011 on slowing global growth and CB disappointment<\/p>\n

\n\t– Spot iron ore price in China drops another 1.8% to $US88.70 per tonne; the lowest price in about 22 months<\/p>\n

\n\t– My take on the Oz Aug Corporate Results Season – A Rather Uncharacteristic Reporting Season http:\/\/alturl.com\/7hcpj<\/p>\n

\n\t– ANZ: too early to switch from yield compression to cyclical growth, although we expect global growth momentum will turn up around end 2012<\/p>\n

\n\t– More "news" investors don't want to hear: GS sees global iron ore market in small surplus by 2014 and in larger surplus from 2015<\/p>\n

\n\t– Not news (most) investors want to hear: BAML predicts W-shape yoy GDP growth trend in China, first recovery 4Q12, then deceleration in 1H13<\/p>\n

\n\t– Arctic ice is thinning and thus more vulnerable – do we have a new trend? http:\/\/bit.ly\/SOGCUs<\/p>\n

\n\t– Macquarie: If commodity prices do not recover, $10 billion of cuts would be needed for the Australian Government to achieve a 2013 surplus<\/p>\n

\n\t– Meanwhile… the spot price for iron ore in China continues slide. Overnight China import Iron Ore Fines FE 62% fell 4.6% (US$4.6) to US$94<\/p>\n

\n\t– CIBC: no immediate shift from low risk government bonds into equities and other risk assets as too many questions about global growth remain<\/p>\n

\n\t– Is iron ore yet another example of misguided, too optimistic expectations? Analysts discuss the matter http:\/\/alturl.com\/yux6q<\/p>\n

\n\t– Atlas Iron dogged by steeper than expected fall in iron ore prices and ongoing capex program\/insufficient cash flows http:\/\/bit.ly\/QpMKSf<\/p>\n

\n\t– Can things get worse for iron ore? They definitely can (hopes for Q4 or 2013 recovery remain intact) http:\/\/alturl.com\/nwa3j<\/p>\n

\n\t– Oz share market definitely in 2-speed mode: stockbrokers issuing 5x as many downgrades as upgrades in past week. Today 100% down, zero up<\/p>\n

\n\t– GS: "we believe that iron ore and metallurgical coal may stay under cost support levels in the near term" – analysts surprised by weakness<\/p>\n

\n\t– Observes GS: DJIA closed day lower on 12 out of past 13 Monday trading sessions. Last week marked first weekly loss after 6 weekly gains<\/p>\n

\n\t– Apple (19% of index) is responsible for 40% of all gains booked by Nasdaq thus far in 2012. More gains for Apple shares overnight<\/p>\n

\n\t– China Stocks Drop To Fresh Post-2009 Lows Following Plunge In Industrial Company Profits http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/8k9493k<\/p>\n

\n\t– Barclays: China growth recovery likely gradual and modest. Many govt officials’ expectations for '12 growth shifting to 7.5% from 8.0% prior<\/p>\n

\n\t– MS now worried about declining margins for Woolworths' supermarkets. Downgrades to Underweight, questions whether this is the end of an era?<\/p>\n

\n\t– Perfect Image! The History of the US summarised in one chart http:\/\/alturl.com\/osmq9<\/p>\n

\n\t– CS on Fortescue: Concern is debt as iron ore price heading down. Not clear FMG has too many options to lower spend this far into expansion<\/p>\n

\n\t– States UBS: "NRW should represent a core holding of any small cap portfolio regardless of short term gyrations in the iron ore price"<\/p>\n

\n\t– Too many technical "reversals", observes Dennis Gartman. Moved to sell all US equities exposure on Friday. Safer on the sidelines<\/p>\n

\n\t– Citi (again) spells it out: Oz banks in the top 50 dividend payers globally + top 10 in global Financials; average yield 6.4%<\/p>\n

\n\t– Barclays concedes risks for copper are now skewed towards negative surprises in H2. Advises investors to watch global indicators closely<\/p>\n

\n\t– IHS Leading Index suggests US GDP growth will only recover to 2% by Dec quarter. Hardly a "recovery". Insert the US Fed once again?<\/p>\n

\n\t– Barclays concedes: there's real risk China economy disappoints in H2 due to policy inaction or delays; growth can slide further short term<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\tYou can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek<\/p>\n

\n\tFind out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This week’s Tweets on Twitter by Your Editor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[48],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60505"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60505"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60505\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}