\n\tBy Greg Peel<\/p>\n
\n\tEarlier this month the analysts at Morgan Stanley decided there was around 9% downside risk to their FY13<\/span> earnings forecasts for the Australian Securities Exchange ((ASX<\/span>)) based on ongoing weak trading activity. September has indeed seen further weakness, hence Morgan has elected to cut forecasts by 6%. The reason the full 9% has not been factored in is because the analysts see a better than usual improvement in activity in the remainder of the year.<\/p>\n \n\tHowever, the downgrade takes the Morgan Stanley numbers to 3% below consensus, which the broker believes is too high. <\/p>\n \n\tASX<\/span> management did not provide a formal trading update on the release of its FY12<\/span> result, suggesting it is unlikely to offer any first quarter numbers. An informal trading update is likely at the October 5 annual general meeting, the analysts suggest, at least to acknowledge weaker activity. At that point consensus estimates will appear too optimistic.<\/p>\n \n\tIn other news, BA-Merrill Lynch has updated its Asia-Pacific Focus List which is a list of those stocks in the Asia-Pacific region for which a panel of Merrills<\/span> analysts has a strong conviction on their Buy recommendations.<\/p>\n \n\tThere are no changes to the Australian-listed components of the list, which are Rio Tinto ((RIO)), ANZ<\/span> Bank ((ANZ<\/span>)), Treasury Wine Estate ((TWE<\/span>)), Regis Resources ((RRL<\/span>)), and Westfield Group ((WDC<\/span>)). <\/p>\n