{"id":60654,"date":"2012-10-02T10:04:02","date_gmt":"2012-10-02T00:04:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/02\/octobers-historical-trends\/"},"modified":"2012-10-02T10:04:02","modified_gmt":"2012-10-02T00:04:02","slug":"octobers-historical-trends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/02\/octobers-historical-trends\/","title":{"rendered":"October&#8217;s Historical Trends"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n\tBy Eva <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Brocklehurst<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\n\t<em>[Note: The following refers to historical trends and does not reflect specific predictions.]<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\n\tEquity seasonality is here with some recovery in October, according to Barclays research. Only four of 15 global stock indices are expected to post negative returns but it does happen to be the weakest month of the year for India&#039;s <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Sensex<\/span>, Australia&#039;s All <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Ords<\/span> and Japan&#039;s <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Topix<\/span>. The Johannesburg&nbsp;All Share is expected at its best. The All <span class=\"scayt-misspell\">Ords<\/span> is 63% likely to advance with the maximum return historically 10.5% and the minimum down 42.4%.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThat last number is enough to send shivers, and rightly so as it reflects those odd Octobers such as 2008 and 1987 in which stock markets collapsed. However despite the infamy of the month of October, statistics show historically it is globally a positive month.<\/p>\n<p>\tThe US dollar is expected to be generally weak with stronger commodity currencies. For the currencies Barclays suggests the best combination is the EUR\/USD (euro) and worst USD\/<span class=\"scayt-misspell\">SGD<\/span> (Singapore dollar). It is the best month for EUR\/CHF (Swiss franc), measured by the median return. The Australian dollar against US dollar is considered to have a 59% likelihood of advancing while against the NZ dollar the odds are 44%.<\/p>\n<p>\tIn commodities the broker sees October as a poor month, with natural gas being the stand-out best return. Copper and gold, meanwhile, are expected to have the worst month, measured by median returns. The likelihood of an advance in spot gold, spot silver and aluminium&nbsp;is 44% for each. The likelihood of an advance for copper is 42% and for&nbsp;crude oil (WTI) 41%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Barclays Capital has analysed seasonal trends for the new month and notes that despite its reputation, October is generally good for equities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60654"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60654\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}