##{"id":60695,"date":"2012-10-09T14:57:41","date_gmt":"2012-10-09T03:57:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/09\/icarus-signal-new-entries-another-myth-exposed\/"},"modified":"2012-10-09T14:57:41","modified_gmt":"2012-10-09T03:57:41","slug":"icarus-signal-new-entries-another-myth-exposed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/09\/icarus-signal-new-entries-another-myth-exposed\/","title":{"rendered":"Icarus Signal New Entries: Another Myth Exposed"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tUpdate on share prices and consensus price targets.<\/p>\n

\n\tBy Rudi Filapek-Vandyck<\/span><\/p>\n

\tThere's a widely repeated theory about the share market that the so-called "smart money" always moves first, which is why paying attention to price action or momentum indicators for individual stocks can be so lucrative; traders believe they are tapping into early movers' market knowledge.<\/p>\n

\tThe problem with this theory is that is based upon "survivors' bias" and selective observations. Sure, it does happen that share prices move well ahead of an official announcement. Nobody should be so naive in underestimating both the hidden and obvious currents of information that flow throughout the public market place. But more often than not these movements in share prices are based on knee-jerk analysis and shallow assumptions; better not confuse the share market collective with some kind of superior form of insights and market knowledge.<\/p>\n

\tBank of Queensland ((BOQ<\/span>)) is an obvious example.<\/p>\n

\tShares in Australia's Big Four Banks have performed well throughout 2012, but not so regional peer BOQ<\/span>. Until May this year the shares of Queensland's proud regional lender had fallen by nearly a third to below $6.50. Then the buyers started moving in and buying support just kept on growing since. Especially from mid-July<\/span> onwards, when the market's attention shifted towards the upcoming full year reports and final dividend payments, the share price took a big spike upwards -beyond the $7.50 mark- and last week it looked like BOQ<\/span> shares might be threatening the $8 level.<\/p>\n

\tInvestors would have been forgiven for assuming the magical, mystical source of information that is Mr Share Market was guided by hidden insights that the tide had finally turned for Bank of Queensland. Those assumptions proved utterly incorrect when management at the bank issued yet another disappointing market update. As a result, BOQ<\/span> shares have instantly disappeared off Icarus<\/span>' radar, even with brokers' targets plunging post the bad debts provisioning inspired profit warning.<\/p>\n

\tPost the event, the shares don't look too bad in terms of "apparent value" but, of course, one has to take into account overall confidence in the stock has once again been damaged.<\/p>\n

\tOne stockbroker -Morgan Stanley- has grabbed the opportunity by reinstating a negative outlook on the shares, even after the 10%-ish<\/span> correction since Friday. Morgan Stanley believes market consensus estimates remain too high, overall analysts' bias too positive and risks firmly skewed towards more disappointments. The new price target now sits at $6.80 – still a long way below the current share price.<\/p>\n

\tMore importantly, however, is the question: how much "intelligence" or "insights" were involved during the share price rally from $6.15 to near $8 between May and last week?<\/p>\n

\tBank of Queensland might have swiftly fallen off Icarus<\/span> radar, a buoyant undercurrent for Australian equities means the list of stocks trading in the vicinity or above consensus target continues growing steadily. No less than 11 stocks join the first list and they include Silver Lake Resources ((SLK<\/span>)), AMP ((AMP)), Newcrest<\/span> ((NCM<\/span>)) and Beach Petroleum ((BPT<\/span>)). Note most of these names have been switching between both lists so they are visiting and revisiting both sides of their target. There are now 42 stocks trading near target.<\/p>\n

\tThe list of stocks trading above target now contains 91 stocks and yesterday's price action saw the inclusion of Australian Vintage ((AVG)) and Amcom<\/span> Telecom ((AMM<\/span>)). Both have been strong outperformers<\/span> in recent weeks.<\/p>\n

\n\tInvestors should consider the information and data are provided for research purposes only.<\/p>\n

\n\tStocks <3% Below Consensus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOrder<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSymbol<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCurrent Price($)<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tConsensus Target($)<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDifference(%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSLR<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 3.84<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 3.84<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t0.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t2<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIOF<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 2.95<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 2.953<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t0.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t3<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWHG<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 0.96<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 0.957<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t0.21%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t4<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAMC<\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 7.99<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 8.009<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t0.24%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t5<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAMP<\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 4.48<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 4.494<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t0.31%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t6<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCPA<\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 1.05<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 1.056<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1.05%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t7<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPFL<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 1.68<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 1.70<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1.19%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t8<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNCM<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 28.20<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 28.555<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1.26%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t9<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBPT<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 1.31<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 1.338<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t2.14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t10<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWCB<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 3.90<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 4.00<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t2.56%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t11<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSUN<\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 9.44<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 9.689<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t2.64%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\n\tStocks Above Consensus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOrder<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSymbol<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCurrent Price($)<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tConsensus Target($)<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDifference(%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAVG<\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 0.51<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 0.50<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t– 1.96%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t2<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAMM<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 1.35<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 1.305<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t– 3.33%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\n\tTop 50 Stocks Furthest from Consensus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOrder<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSymbol<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCurrent Price($)<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tConsensus Target($)<\/th>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDifference(%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNFE<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 0.55<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 1.30<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t138.53%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t2<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBRU<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 2.84<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 4.52<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t59.15%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t3<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tMBN<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 0.45<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 0.70<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t57.30%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t4<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tGRY<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 0.92<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 1.447<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t57.28%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t5<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFXJ<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 0.40<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t$ 0.629<\/td>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t57.25%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\n\tTo see the full Icarus<\/span> Signal, please go to this link<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\tTechnical limitations<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tIf you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included<\/span>, we apologise<\/span><\/span><\/span>, but technical limitations are to blame.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tFind out why FNArena<\/span><\/span> subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Update on share prices and consensus price targets. Today: there’s a lesson to be learned from the recent Bank of Queensland experience.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[90,91],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60695"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60695"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60695\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60695"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60695"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60695"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}