{"id":61700,"date":"2013-04-19T12:45:26","date_gmt":"2013-04-19T02:45:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/19\/your-editor-on-twitter-133\/"},"modified":"2013-04-19T12:45:26","modified_gmt":"2013-04-19T02:45:26","slug":"your-editor-on-twitter-133","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/19\/your-editor-on-twitter-133\/","title":{"rendered":"Your Editor On Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tBy Rudi Filapek-Vandyck<\/span>, Editor FNArena<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\tI joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch<\/span>, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing<\/span> financial markets myself.<\/p>\n

\n\tWhile I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek<\/span>.<\/p>\n

\n\tFor those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:<\/p>\n

\n\t– BA-ML global strategists cautious on short term outlook global #equities, but remain positive longer term. Look for early cycle cyclicals<\/p>\n

\n\t– And now for a change: #China analysts at BA-ML happy to stick with 8% GDP growth forecast for 2013. Growth to pick up in next 3 quarters<\/p>\n

\n\t– BCA Research sticks with view that a global turnaround in favour of #cyclical #equities is just around the corner http:\/\/bit.ly\/13l11TH<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\t– Macquarie's Conviction list: remove property stocks Charter Hall (#CHC) and GPT (#GPT), but add News Corp (#NWS) as a buy idea #equities<\/p>\n

\n\t– Question: why is it that financial markets are only forward looking when the trend is up? When down it's always temporarily & misguided?<\/p>\n

\n\t– #Commodities: only 4 left with positive performance YTD: NatGas, cotton, lean hogs, cocoa. #Silver worst performer (-22.8%),#gold 2nd worst<\/p>\n

\n\t– JP Morgan exits long #Newcrest (#NCM) position as sell-off in #gold is expected to leave longer lasting impact, plus $AUD has strong support<\/p>\n

\n\t– Someone has to say it: there is NO risk appetite. Forced asset re-allocation has been widely misinterpreted. Anyone to show me I am wrong?<\/p>\n

\n\t– Today is Opposite day in #Commodities land: crude oil, gold, most metals up; #ironore down by US70c to US$138.60\/t #investing<\/p>\n

\n\t– JPM strategists: weakening momentum in global growth will challenge equity markets in Q2. June ASX200 target 4900. Defensive looks best<\/p>\n

\n\t– Citi economists suggest GDP forecasts for 2014 are too high, in particular for Europe and #China. They also anticipate stronger #USD ahead<\/p>\n

\n\t– Standard Bank: avoid big #ironore producers who still think we are in 2007. The market will force their hand to reconsider their capex plans<\/p>\n

\n\t– Standard Chartered concerned wave of downgrades about to hit #commodities stocks; when commodities fall a bit, margins get compressed a lot<\/p>\n

\n\t– The "Magic" of timing. Surely Macquarie must be thinking about that moment when they decided to upgrade #BHP and #RIO to Outperform on 10\/4<\/p>\n

\n\t– Shares in #BHP Billiton now at 3.9% FY14 div yield estimate (at today's AUDUSD). Historically, 4% has been pretty solid support #equities<\/p>\n

\n\t– ANZ throws Aust off the mining investment cliff: http:\/\/bit.ly\/15h2u17<\/a> . Along with falling commodity prices, this is the key risk facing Oz<\/p>\n

\n\t– Satyajit Das on #China: every investor should read and think about this http:\/\/on.mktw.net\/11z0KMH<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\t– My analysis: investors in Oz share market are betting on Black Caviar (and with good reasons too) http:\/\/bit.ly\/XHm8Po<\/a> #equities<\/p>\n

\n\t– Chinese Auditor Warns "Out Of Control" Chinese Debt Could Spark Bigger Crisis Than US Housing Crash http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2013-04-17\/chinese-auditor-warns-out-control-chinese-debt-could-spark-bigger-crisis-us-housing- …<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\t– Goldmans raises forecasts, estimates for Oz retailers as outlook continues to improve for consumer spending. Harvey Norman upgraded to Buy<\/p>\n

\n\t– Only one term applies these days to charts of #commodities: ugly http:\/\/bit.ly\/1748XuO<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\t– UBS stategists have been hinting at how well Sell in May strategies have worked in prior years. They suggest 2013 may not be different<\/p>\n

\n\t– Insto desk at Goldman Sachs summarises general sentiment across the globe: "People are nervous!!!" #equities #investing<\/p>\n

\n\t– Goldman Sachs slaps a Sell on Woolworths (#WOW). Predictable motivation: great franchise, growth will be slowing, valuation too high<\/p>\n

\n\t– Weak earnings and growth concerns persist: equities down, oil below $100 (Brent), copper dives 3%, gold lower. #ironore -US10c to US$139.30<\/p>\n

\n\t– UBS finds Infrastructure #equities look more attractive than REITs based on yield plus growth analysis #dividends #yield #equities<\/p>\n

\n\t– BA-ML Global Funds Managers Survey: allocations to #commodities dropped to lowest since Jan 2009; to #Energy stocks to all-time low<\/p>\n

\n\t– CS: like defensives in Oz. Resources stocks are cheap, but yet to see #commodity prices bottom. RBA rate plays expensive #equities<\/p>\n

\n\t– CS: proprietary asset allocation model suggests #gold could continue to underperform other asset classes. Gold most expensive US asset class<\/p>\n

\n\t– JP Morgan: A sharp decline in investment efficiency appears to be the most ready explanation for recent sub-par economic expansion in #China<\/p>\n

\n\t– Citi in Europe: all #gold miners now rated Sell, except one (no rating). Only 1 mining stock rated Buy; Rio Tinto ((RIO)) #commodities<\/p>\n

\n\t– Says Citi: #commodities sector is back in downgrade mode. Earnings estimates cut by 5% for 2013, 15% for 2014 and 14% for 2015<\/p>\n

\n\t– Citi in Europe: maintain bearish view on Metals and Mining sector; value is 10-15% below today's prices with dividend yield line in the sand<\/p>\n

\n\t– Citi says RBA commentary too sanguine. Continues to favour a further rate cut if next week's Q1 CPI report is favourable #equities<\/p>\n

\n\t– Note which cos continue to surprise in US reporting season: Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson, both All-Weather Stocks (W Buffet owns them)<\/p>\n

\n\t– Meanwhile in the background: Downgrades by stockbrokers are again outnumbering upgrades. We can all blame #commodity sector updates for that<\/p>\n

\n\t– Got to feel for Cyprus. They were going to use gold reserves to fund the bigger bailout.<\/p>\n

\n\t– Citi declares 2013 will be the year in which the death bells ring for #commodities #supercycle. Time to focus on individual opportunities!<\/p>\n

\n\t– True impact of weak #China data yesterday: global growth projections are being scaled back sub-8% for China, #commodities also impacted<\/p>\n

\n\t– CIBC: #China's recovery unexpectedly loses momentum, casting a shadow over the global recovery and commodity markets. 8% GDP growth at risk<\/p>\n

\n\t– #Ironore really is something else. Amidst overnight carnage for gold, energy and commodities, spot iron ore drops US10c to US$140.90\/t<\/p>\n

\n\t– Just a thought: relatively benign volumes as gold and materials take massive blows. Funds managers already Underweight, caring less? #stocks<\/p>\n

\n\t– Post soft #China data, NAB cuts 2013 GDP growth estimate to below 8% from 8.2% previously. Sees PBoC rate hike by early 2014 on soft CPI<\/p>\n

\n\t– JP Morgan cuts China 2013 GDP view to below 7.8% http:\/\/sns.mx\/quoMy8<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\t– Stockbroker DJ Carmichael: #ironore prices expected to fall over the next few years. Like gold, we are in a bearish cycle for the #commodity<\/p>\n

\n\t– ANZ Bank projects #China GDP growth 8.1%+8.0% for Q2 and Q3, sub-8% likely in Q4. For the whole year, GDP forecast cut to 7.8% from 8.1%<\/p>\n

\n\t– Now THIS is interesting: China official apologises for wrong data http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/d5h8rw9<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\t– Hot on the heels of yet another set of data disappointments from #China, World Bank cuts growth forecasts http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/cbwqqnd<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\t– Goldmans retains Neutral sector call on Oz banks, but #NAB is now a Buy with Conviction while #CBA was upgraded to Hold from Sell #equities<\/p>\n

\n\t– Is the world's real problem too low fertility rates? A compelling case can be made http:\/\/bit.ly\/YRWNDd<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\tYou can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\tFind out why FNArena<\/span> subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This week’s Tweets on Twitter by Your Editor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[48],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61700"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61700"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61700\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}