##{"id":61784,"date":"2013-05-07T10:41:50","date_gmt":"2013-05-07T00:41:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/07\/time-to-exit-retail\/"},"modified":"2013-05-07T10:41:50","modified_gmt":"2013-05-07T00:41:50","slug":"time-to-exit-retail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/07\/time-to-exit-retail\/","title":{"rendered":"Time To Exit Retail"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n\tBy Michael&nbsp;Gable&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n\tWhile the market continues show signs of confusion, I am discovering further clarity in the direction of specific stocks. <span>QBE<\/span> ((<span>QBE<\/span>)) we looked at last week and that appears to be breaking out of its continuation pattern now. <span>BHP<\/span> <span>Billiton<\/span> ((<span>BHP<\/span>)) I have spoken about for a month now finding good support here. While it hasn&rsquo;t rallied too far yet, it has managed to hold above $30, and recent price action suggests a nice bounce from current levels. The other sector I see under pressure is discretionary retail. Myer ((<span>MYR<\/span>)) in particular is shaping up to be a good shorting opportunity here and I will be devising an options strategy to profit from the downside. Have a good look at <span>MYR<\/span> as I feel this is the trade of the week and can provide a very good opportunity for investors looking to hedge some downside.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<u>Myer<\/p>\n<p>\t<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/ckfinder\/userfiles\/images\/myr.jpg\" style=\"width: 620px;height: 559px\" \/><\/u><br \/>\n\t&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n\tMyer has almost doubled in value from its lows in June last year. Rate cuts have helped improve sentiment slightly and retail sales earlier this year were indicating that the consumer was slowly starting to spend money again. However, up here the stock is almost priced to perfection and it won&rsquo;t be able to tolerate any setbacks. When we look at the chart, the bearish engulfing pattern (circled) and the divergence with the <span>RSI<\/span> suggest to me that the market is looking for reasons to exit the stock.<\/p>\n<p>\tWhat could further derail the <span>MYR<\/span> rally? Retail sales for March were down -0.4% when the market was expecting them to be +0.2%. The other major point to note is the weather. March has been unseasonably warm and if we don&rsquo;t get a cold snap in the next week or two, then we are going to see a lot of winter apparel get discounted. This pressure on margins will hurt the retailers just when they thought they were finding their feet. As a result, previous company guidance may need to be downgraded. As a result, I can see weakness in the discretionary retailers. Myer in particularly has downside to $2.60 and then further support at $2.40.<br \/>\n\t&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<em>Content included in this article is not by association necessarily the view of <span>FNArena<\/span> (see our <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index2.cfm?type=dsp_webht\">disclaimer<\/a>).<\/em><br \/>\n\t&nbsp;<br \/>\n\t<em>Visit Michael&nbsp;Gable&#039;s website at&nbsp;<span>&nbsp;<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.michaelgable.com.au\">www.michaelgable.com.au\/<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.michaelgable.com.au\/\">.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>\n\t<em>After leaving Macquarie Bank&#039;s Securities Group in 2008 after many years of service, Michael has gained a highly regarded reputation in the financial services industry. As a Private Client Adviser with <span>Novus<\/span> Capital, Michael has become a popular live commentator and analyst for Sky News Business Channel&rsquo;s &ldquo;Your Money, Your Call&rdquo; program. He is also the author of the weekly stock market report &ldquo;The Dynamic Investor&rdquo;.<\/p>\n<p>\tMichael assists investors to achieve their goals by providing advice ranging from short term trading to longer term portfolio management.<\/p>\n<p>\tMichael deals in all <span>ASX<\/span> listed securities and <span>specialises<\/span> in covered call writing to help long term investors protect their share portfolios and generate additional income.<\/p>\n<p>\tMichael is <span>RG146<\/span> Accredited and holds the following formal qualifications:<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\n\t<em>&bull; Bachelor of Engineering, <span>Hons<\/span>. (University of Sydney)&nbsp;<br \/>\n\t&bull; Bachelor of Commerce (University of Sydney)&nbsp;<br \/>\n\t&bull; Diploma of Mortgage Lending (<span>Finsia<\/span>)&nbsp;<br \/>\n\t&bull; Diploma of Financial Services [Financial Planning] (<span>Finsia<\/span>)&nbsp;<br \/>\n\t&bull; Completion of <span>ASX<\/span> Accredited Derivatives Adviser Levels 1 &amp; 2<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">\n\t<em><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/ckfinder\/userfiles\/images\/0_Novus image.jpg\" style=\"width: 190px;height: 85px\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong><em>Disclaimer<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\t<em>Michael Gable is an <span>Authorised<\/span> Representative (Rep. No. 376892) of <span>Novus<\/span> Capital Limited <span>AFSL<\/span> 238168 <span>ACN<\/span> 006 711 995. Michael Gable and <span>Novus<\/span> Capital Limited, their associates and respective Directors and staff each declare that they, from time to time, may hold interests in securities and\/or earn brokerage, fees, interest, or other benefits from products and services mentioned in this website. This website may contain unsolicited general information, without regard to any investor&#039;s individual objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not specific advice for any particular investor. Before making any decision about the information provided, you must consider the appropriateness of the information in this website or the Product Disclosure Statement (<span>PDS<\/span>) or Financial Services Guide (<span>FSG<\/span>), having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs and consult your adviser. Any indicative information and assumptions used here are <span>summarised<\/span> and also may change without notice to you, particularly if based on past performance. Michael Gable and <span>Novus<\/span> Capital Limited believes that any information or advice (including any securities recommendation) contained in this website is accurate when issued but does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Michael Gable and <span>Novus<\/span> Capital Limited are not obliged to update you if the information or its advice changes. Michael Gable and <span>Novus<\/span> Capital Limited and each of their respective officers, agents and employees exclude to the full extent permitted by law, all liability of any kind, in negligence, contract, under fiduciary duties or otherwise, for any loss or damage, whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise, whether foreseeable or not, to the extent arising from or in connection with this website.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\n\t<em>Find out why <span>FNArena<\/span> subscribers like the service so much: &quot;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index4.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&amp;n=29EB960D-9DFF-C00E-7F6B464E5D52E250\">Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>&quot; &#8211; Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Michael Gable of Novus Capital finds technical pressure on hard-running discretionary retail stocks, with Myer a clear contender for a pullback.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[35],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61784"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61784\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}