{"id":80132,"date":"2019-04-29T10:00:35","date_gmt":"2019-04-29T00:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/?p=80132"},"modified":"2019-04-29T10:00:37","modified_gmt":"2019-04-29T00:00:37","slug":"weekly-ratings-targets-forecast-changes-117","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/29\/weekly-ratings-targets-forecast-changes-117\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena<\/p>\n

Guide:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.<\/em><\/p>\n

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy\/Hold\/Sell (B\/H\/S) ratio.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.<\/em><\/p>\n

Summary<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Period: Monday April 22 to Friday April 26, 2019
\nTotal Upgrades: 0
\nTotal Downgrades: 5
\nNet Ratings Breakdown: Buy 41.70%; Hold 42.97%; Sell 15.33%<\/em><\/p>\n

The long Easter weekend and Anzac public holiday made their impact felt in the week ending Friday, 26th may 2019. For the week in total, FNArena registered five downgrades for ASX-listed entities, and not one single upgrade.<\/p>\n

With four of the five downgrades affecting mining stocks, it's probably a fair conclusion market scepticism is creeping into this year's star performers. In earlier updates we noticed a number of downgrades for yield providing stocks. And the energy sector has had their share as well, as did the banks.<\/p>\n

The good news: most downgrades still transfer to Neutral\/Hold.<\/p>\n

Not much to report on changes in price targets and valuations; there are but a tiny number. Both Galaxy Resources and Alumina Ltd further reinforce the mining theme, and both endured noticeable reductions of -11.6% and -3.3% respectively.<\/p>\n

There was a bit more action in changes to earnings forecasts with resources stocks equally presented on the positive side of the week's ledger. Woodside Petroleum, Alumina Ltd, Oil Search and St Barbara all enjoyed rising forecasts.<\/p>\n

The negative side shows much larger numbers though with forecasts for the likes of Galaxy Resources and Graincorp falling like a rock, while Northern Star's quarterly update also disappointed, and with sizeable cuts descending upon South32, Orocobre, and National Australia Bank (yet to report).<\/p>\n

This week sees an acceleration in the release of quarterly production reports, interspersed with shareholder gatherings and a number of out-of-season financial results. It's getting busier at the micro level.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Downgrade<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

ALUMINA LIMITED ((AWC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie<\/strong> .B\/H\/S: 2\/2\/1<\/p>\n

Production of bauxite and alumina was in line with Macquarie's estimates. Costs were 11% above estimates. This drives earnings downgrades. The resumption of full production at Alunorte presents a key downside risk to alumina prices, in the broker's view.<\/p>\n

This is likely to weigh on the share price of Alumina Ltd and Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $2.35 from $2.80.<\/p>\n

BHP GROUP ((BHP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS<\/strong> .B\/H\/S: 2\/5\/1<\/p>\n

Stronger for longer commodity prices have allowed for steep appreciation in the share price but UBS analysts believe prices for iron ore and metallurgical coal are poised for weakness on a 6-12 months horizon, hence the analysts see further upside as limited.<\/p>\n

On this basis they have downgraded to Neutral from Buy. In addition, the outlook for crude oil prices is also seen as "subdued", which is yet another headwind forming. Price target lifts to $36 from $35 on further updates to modeling input and forecasts.<\/p>\n

GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED ((GXY)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie<\/strong> .B\/H\/S: 4\/0\/1<\/p>\n

Better grades offset weak recoveries at Mount Cattlin, Macquarie observes. The company has stopped looking for a development partner for Sal de Vida and the broker notes no timeline has been provided, although the company still intends to develop the asset.<\/p>\n

As Sal de Vida is increasingly uncertain and Macquarie believes funding could be difficult to source during muted market conditions, the rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Weak recoveries at Mount Cattlin also remain of concern. Target is reduced to $1.50 from $2.10.<\/p>\n

KOGAN.COM LTD ((KGN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS<\/strong> .B\/H\/S: 0\/1\/0<\/p>\n

The company has announced a strong March quarter of trading and two new vertical markets: Kogan Energy Compare and Kogan Cars with EclipX Group ((ECX)). UBS believes these will be slow profit producers.<\/p>\n

The company has also launched a retail subscription service to tie in with its upcoming credit card offer. UBS envisages near-term risk is to the upside for earnings but considers this priced into the stock.<\/p>\n

To become more positive, the broker requires a strong ramp up of at least one new vertical and improving cash flow. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target is raised to $5.80 from $5.00.<\/p>\n

SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie<\/strong> .B\/H\/S: 4\/3\/0<\/p>\n

March quarter production was weak and guidance has been reduced for the alumina and thermal coal assets. This translates to -14-22% reductions to Macquarie's earnings forecasts for the next four years.<\/p>\n

Cost guidance is also expected to come under pressure for a number of assets. Earnings upgrade momentum has vanished and Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform as a result. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $4.00.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Total Recommendations<\/strong>
\n\t\t\t<\/td>\n		Recommendation Changes<\/strong>
\n\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

\t\t\tBroker Recommendation Breakup<\/strong>
\n\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Broker Rating<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Order<\/th>\nCompany<\/th>\nNew Rating<\/th>\nOld Rating<\/th>\nBroker<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Downgrade<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nALUMINA LIMITED<\/a><\/td>\nNeutral<\/td>\nBuy<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nBHP GROUP<\/a><\/td>\nNeutral<\/td>\nBuy<\/td>\nUBS<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nGALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED<\/a><\/td>\nSell<\/td>\nNeutral<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nKOGAN.COM LTD<\/a><\/td>\nNeutral<\/td>\nBuy<\/td>\nUBS<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nSOUTH32 LIMITED<\/a><\/td>\nNeutral<\/td>\nBuy<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Recommendation<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\t\t\t\t<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n
Order<\/th>\nSymbol<\/th>\nCompany<\/th>\nNew Rating<\/th>\nPrevious Rating<\/th>\nChange<\/th>\nRecs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
\n

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Order<\/th>\nSymbol<\/th>\nCompany<\/th>\nNew Rating<\/th>\nPrevious Rating<\/th>\nChange<\/th>\nRecs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nGXY<\/a><\/td>\nGALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED<\/td>\n60.0%<\/td>\n80.0%<\/td>\n-20.0%<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nAWC<\/a><\/td>\nALUMINA LIMITED<\/td>\n20.0%<\/td>\n40.0%<\/td>\n-20.0%<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nS32<\/a><\/td>\nSOUTH32 LIMITED<\/td>\n57.0%<\/td>\n71.0%<\/td>\n-14.0%<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nBHP<\/a><\/td>\nBHP GROUP<\/td>\n13.0%<\/td>\n25.0%<\/td>\n-12.0%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Target Price<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Order<\/th>\nSymbol<\/th>\nCompany<\/th>\nNew Target<\/th>\nPrevious Target<\/th>\nChange<\/th>\nRecs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nBHP<\/a><\/td>\nBHP GROUP<\/td>\n37.391<\/td>\n37.249<\/td>\n0.38%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Order<\/th>\nSymbol<\/th>\nCompany<\/th>\nNew Target<\/th>\nPrevious Target<\/th>\nChange<\/th>\nRecs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nGXY<\/a><\/td>\nGALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED<\/td>\n2.350<\/td>\n2.660<\/td>\n-11.65%<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nAWC<\/a><\/td>\nALUMINA LIMITED<\/td>\n2.610<\/td>\n2.700<\/td>\n-3.33%<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nS32<\/a><\/td>\nSOUTH32 LIMITED<\/td>\n3.906<\/td>\n3.984<\/td>\n-1.96%<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Earning Forecast<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Order<\/th>\nSymbol<\/th>\nCompany<\/th>\nNew EF<\/th>\nPrevious EF<\/th>\nChange<\/th>\nRecs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nWPL<\/a><\/td>\nWOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED<\/td>\n247.159<\/td>\n228.936<\/td>\n7.96%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nAWC<\/a><\/td>\nALUMINA LIMITED<\/td>\n26.771<\/td>\n25.401<\/td>\n5.39%<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nOSH<\/a><\/td>\nOIL SEARCH LIMITED<\/td>\n45.313<\/td>\n43.818<\/td>\n3.41%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nSBM<\/a><\/td>\nST BARBARA LIMITED<\/td>\n32.690<\/td>\n31.933<\/td>\n2.37%<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nSGM<\/a><\/td>\nSIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED<\/td>\n81.633<\/td>\n81.050<\/td>\n0.72%<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nMP1<\/a><\/td>\nMEGAPORT LIMITED<\/td>\n-26.600<\/td>\n-26.650<\/td>\n0.19%<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nQBE<\/a><\/td>\nQBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED<\/td>\n87.006<\/td>\n86.850<\/td>\n0.18%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nRIO<\/a><\/td>\nRIO TINTO LIMITED<\/td>\n938.425<\/td>\n936.746<\/td>\n0.18%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nSDA<\/a><\/td>\nSPEEDCAST INTERNATIONAL LIMITED<\/td>\n32.430<\/td>\n32.372<\/td>\n0.18%<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nNCM<\/a><\/td>\nNEWCREST MINING LIMITED<\/td>\n100.565<\/td>\n100.412<\/td>\n0.15%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Order<\/th>\nSymbol<\/th>\nCompany<\/th>\nNew EF<\/th>\nPrevious EF<\/th>\nChange<\/th>\nRecs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nGXY<\/a><\/td>\nGALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED<\/td>\n-0.276<\/td>\n1.822<\/td>\n-115.15%<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nGNC<\/a><\/td>\nGRAINCORP LIMITED<\/td>\n-0.688<\/td>\n6.285<\/td>\n-110.95%<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nNST<\/a><\/td>\nNORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD<\/td>\n34.780<\/td>\n41.828<\/td>\n-16.85%<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nS32<\/a><\/td>\nSOUTH32 LIMITED<\/td>\n32.072<\/td>\n33.664<\/td>\n-4.73%<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nORE<\/a><\/td>\nOROCOBRE LIMITED<\/td>\n9.698<\/td>\n10.125<\/td>\n-4.22%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nNAB<\/a><\/td>\nNATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED<\/td>\n218.500<\/td>\n226.657<\/td>\n-3.60%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nCRN<\/a><\/td>\nCORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES<\/td>\n60.774<\/td>\n62.078<\/td>\n-2.10%<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nSYR<\/a><\/td>\nSYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED<\/td>\n-3.343<\/td>\n-3.341<\/td>\n-0.06%<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nURW<\/a><\/td>\nUNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD<\/td>\n46.943<\/td>\n46.954<\/td>\n-0.02%<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\n

Technical limitations<\/strong><\/p>\n

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included<\/em>, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":80140,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[83],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80132"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80132"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80132\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80140"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}