##{"id":89027,"date":"2020-10-02T10:59:43","date_gmt":"2020-10-02T00:59:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/?p=89027"},"modified":"2020-10-02T10:59:45","modified_gmt":"2020-10-02T00:59:45","slug":"rudis-comprehensive-2020-results-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2020\/10\/02\/rudis-comprehensive-2020-results-review\/","title":{"rendered":"Rudi\u2019s Comprehensive 2020 Results Review"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A comprehensive assessment of Australia&rsquo;s corporate results in February and August 2020, amidst coronavirus pandemic and fall-out, economic disruption, more extreme central bank policies and ongoing tension between the world&rsquo;s two super powers.<\/p>\n<p>By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, share markets are guided by corporate profits; more specifically by growth in profits, or by the threat to or absence of growth &ndash; whichever scenario applies in the moment.<\/p>\n<p>FNArena has built up a reputation for dissecting and reviewing corporate results in Australia.<\/p>\n<p>Usually, once a February or August season is finished, I put together a general overview of previews and intermediate assessments, to be revisited whenever handy in the future, but this year in mid-February all attention went to the spreading global pandemic, and very little else.<\/p>\n<p>Which is why, post August, we&rsquo;re doing things differently by combining all commentary and analysis on both reporting seasons in one 2020 overview. In reverse chronological order.<\/p>\n<p>The initial idea was to combine all three Monitors (February,&nbsp;August plus in between) in&nbsp;one document, but that idea was scuppered by technical limitations as it would create too big a file to download. Hence, only the August Monitor in PDF is attached. For the two other reporting seasons, paying subscribers can visit FNArena&#039;s Corporate Results Monitor at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/reporting_season\/\">https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/reporting_season\/<\/a> &#8211; look for the archive going back to August 2013.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, we already published the Wrap in early September:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/09\/august-2020-result-season-the-wrap\/\">https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/09\/august-2020-result-season-the-wrap\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>****<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Stats, Damn Lies, And Corporate Profits?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">One of the under-reported observations from the recent August reporting season is the ever-widening gap between statutory profits and &ldquo;underlying&rdquo; profits, with the latter increasingly being promoted by ASX-listed businesses as the true marker of overall performance.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It goes without saying, there can be multiple, valid reasons why companies switch to underlying profits, and it does not by default indicate fraud or deception is now high on the agenda.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">But on calculations published by the&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">AFR&rsquo;s James Thomson<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;on 31 August, the gap between statutory and underlying profits has grown as wide as $28.6bn -76.5%- for the 172 members of the ASX200 that reported during the month.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">$37.3bn versus $65.8bn &ldquo;underlying&rdquo; &ndash; it&rsquo;s hard to fathom this is not an all-time record and surely it must act as a warning to shareholders that more scrutiny might be required during times of corona and lockdowns.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Within this framework, ASIC last week reported it had intervened in four cases of financial reporting by four local companies.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">These four in question are (with quotes from the official ASIC communication):<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Nitro Software Limited<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NTO<\/span>)) &ndash; The decision to reduce both its contract assets and deferred revenue balances relating to client software subscriptions by $14.7 million in its financial report for the half-year ended 30 June 2020. ASIC had raised concerns on the recognition of the equal and offsetting contract assets and deferred revenue from the inception of multi-year subscription contracts at 31 December 2019.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&ndash;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Kresta Holdings Limited<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;&ndash; The decision to reduce the gain recognised on a sale and leaseback transaction by $997,000 in its financial report for the half-year ended 30 June 2020. ASIC had raised concerns on the amount of the gain on the sale and leaseback of a property under a new standard on lease accounting in the financial report for the year ended 31 December 2019.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Elixinol Global Limited<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">EXL<\/span>)) &ndash; The decision to impair goodwill, inventories and other assets by $60 million in its financial report for the half-year ended 30 June 2020. ASIC had raised concerns about the reasonableness and supportability of free cash flow forecasts used in assessing goodwill for impairment at 31 December 2019 having regard to historical performance and market conditions.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&ndash;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">LawFinance Limited<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((LAW)) &ndash; The decisions to reclassify $41.6 million of liabilities from non-current to current and to restate comparative information to recognise $19.6 million of fair value gains on liabilities in the following period in its financial report for the half-year ended 30 June 2020. ASIC had raised concerns on the classification of liabilities and recognition of fair value gains on liabilities in the financial report for the year ended 31 December 2019.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">According to Thomson&rsquo;s analysis, by far the largest contributor to the gap between statutory and underlying profits came from asset write-downs by the likes of Boral, Qantas and Woodside Petroleum.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">August 2020 Lifts Price Targets<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">For securities analysts, each reporting season offers a welcome update on how companies are faring operationally, and this includes contracts, investments and sales, as well as margins, inventories and cash flows.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Within this framework, market forecasts had never looked as wide and as diverse as post-February, so the August reporting season has been more than just welcome, with widely diverging forecasts in many cases rejoining around a much more feasible middle ground.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">For many an investor\/shareholder, this background re-adjusting of modeling and forecasts is often largely ignored, even though paying attention can provide clues about future sentiment towards and the direction of a share price.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Not every investor is convinced these analysts are worth every cent they are being paid, but fact remains: upward and downward adjustments to forecasts act like a magnet on share prices, sometimes even on what looks like rather small changes.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">One of the easiest accessible indicators for what is happening behind the scenes of daily volatile market moves are&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">consensus price targets for individual stocks<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In essence, these targets symbolise the general idea of where analysts think the share price should be, roughly, incorporating current information and with all else remaining equal.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As I have pointed out numerous times over the years, share prices often tend to converge with these targets, unless there are other factors in play that weigh on investors&rsquo; sentiment.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">[<em><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Special Note: the FNArena service includes The Icarus Signal, which signals when share prices are above or very close to consensus targets, though investors should always include context and their own insights and observations when taking guidance from such a broad-based, generalising, automated tool.<\/span><\/em>]<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Hence, every reporting season one of the key indicators I look at is what happens to price targets once companies have publicly disseminated and discussed their financial performance, and analysts have digested the numbers, and put fresh insights through their now updated modeling.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In simple terms: when targets move higher, it&rsquo;s probably because forecasts have gone up, and this usually means the share price will rise.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If the above coincides with a positive &ldquo;surprise&rdquo; (otherwise known as an earnings beat) and the share price is nowhere near the new targets, then you can almost be assured the share price is now being carried further by ongoing positive momentum.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Such momentum carries into general sentiment, and before you know it, we&rsquo;re talking multiple weeks, if not months of additional gains.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The opposite holds true as well. Irrespective of whether a financial result met forecasts or not, if the outcome post-release is falling expectations and a reduction in valuations and targets, chances are very much in favour of persisting downward pressure on the share price.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As happens in every reporting season, August offered plenty of examples for each of these scenarios.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">AGL Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AGL<\/span>)) surprised most with a downbeat guidance and the consensus target for the stock tumbled to $14.84 from $16.45 prior to the FY20 release.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In response, the AGL share price quickly reset around $15 from $17-$18 before the market update.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The AGL board promised to pay out 100% of cash earnings to shareholders in the next two years, but this hasn&rsquo;t prevented analysts from putting the knife in their forecasts, assuming near 100% payouts in FY21 and FY22, but ultimately forecasting a lower dividend in two years&rsquo; time.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The reset in profit forecasts is clearly visible on the bottom part of the share price graph that can be found via Stock Analysis on the website, idem for the reduction in consensus target.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The same basic principle applies to similarly underwhelming market updates released by companies such as Bendigo and Adelaide Bank ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BEN<\/span>)), Blackmores ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BKL<\/span>)), Challenger ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CGF<\/span>)), Cimic Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CIM<\/span>)), GWA Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GWA<\/span>)), InvoCare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IVC<\/span>)), Japara Healthcare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JHC<\/span>)), Mayne Pharma ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MYX<\/span>)), Origin Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ORG<\/span>)), Seek ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SEK<\/span>)), Telstra ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TLS<\/span>)), and Seven West Media ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SWM<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In all of these examples, price targets have fallen post the release of financials, and in all cases the share price has not even made a half-hearted attempt since to close that glaring gap between share price and target.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Data-analysis from past reporting seasons in Australia has shown share prices post earnings disappointment are poised for persistent underperformance that can last three months, at times even longer.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">I haven&rsquo;t done any broad analysis regarding falling forecasts and price targets and their effect on share prices, but anecdotal observations suggest these are the kind of stocks that are, for the time being, likely to remain deprived from any sustainable upward momentum.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Until things turn around, which can take a while.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It goes without saying, each reporting season has plenty of examples of companies outperforming expectations, forcing analysts to lift forecasts, which usually pushes up price targets, providing ongoing momentum to already rising share prices.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">August saw plenty of such events with, on FNArena&rsquo;s calculations, the average gain for price targets during the month climbing to 6.49%. All price targets in aggregate rose by 5% (net) over the month.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Considering that profit forecasts went down to -20% for FY20, and they fell a little further (net) throughout the season, those target data easily explain as to why August 2020 turned into a positive experience for Australian investors.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The key insight, however, is that these numbers are predominantly generated outside of the ASX50. Consider the following:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&ndash;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">For the ASX50 (44 companies)<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Total Beats: 11 (25%)<br \/>-Total Misses 12 (27.3%)<br \/>-Average increase in individual price target: 1.67%<br \/>-Total increase in aggregate price targets: 3.14%<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Now consider the total stats for<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">&nbsp;318 companies recorded for the season<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;(which also includes the ASX50):<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Total Beats: 114 (35.8%)<br \/>-Total Misses 61 (19.2%)<br \/>-Average increase in individual price target: 6.49%<br \/>-Total increase in aggregate price targets: 5%<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If there is still anyone out there who questions as to why there is such a wide gap between winners and losers in the share market, and why the Australian share market finds it nigh impossible to keep up with the US in this bull market, or why so many investors instinctively are drawn to smaller cap &nbsp;companies when looking for the next opportunity, I think the above numbers tell all.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Some of the eye-catching, stand-out performances last month, with price targets literally jumping into a higher dimension, came from Adairs ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ADH<\/span>)), Afterpay ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APT<\/span>)), Ansell ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ANN<\/span>)), ARB Corp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ARB<\/span>)), AUB Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AUB<\/span>)), Australian Vintage ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AVG<\/span>)), Austal ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ASB<\/span>)), Autosports Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ASG<\/span>)), Aventus Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AVN<\/span>)),.. I am still only at the first letter of the alphabet while going through the final conclusions of the FNArena Results Monitor for August&hellip;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If you are an FNArena subscriber, my message to you is: we built this easily accessible tool. It&rsquo;s available 24\/7 on the website. Use it. (There is an archive too going back to August 2013).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The more intriguing cases are those where forecasts &amp; targets and the share price have moved in opposite directions. Similar to the examples mentioned above: it all comes down to specific strategies and horizons, and to personal knowledge and convictions.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Appen&rsquo;s ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APX<\/span>)) FY20 result was not well-received and it certainly did not help that the release was preceded by a rally in the share price to $44 from $36 (so much for the market knows best,&nbsp;<em><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">n&rsquo;est-ce pas?<\/span><\/em>)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Fact remains, while the share price got clobbered post event, the average target actually went up; to $37.75 from $34.58.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Admittedly, opinions among analysts covering the company have become more polarised and nothing is ever without risk, but I am siding with the optimists: there still is so much growth ahead of this company, and that is what will ultimately drive the share price.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Appen remains part of the FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio and we have used this weakness to buy additional shares, as we did with ResMed ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RMD<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In similar vein, Nanosonics ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NAN<\/span>)), MNF Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MNF<\/span>)) and APA Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APA<\/span>)) all sold off post results release &ndash; see last week&rsquo;s Weekly Insights.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Not every share price that falls represents an equally attractive investment opportunity, but when analysts are adding to their valuation it&rsquo;s good to remember that if these valuations stand their ground, the share price will follow, eventually.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Stock Ideas &amp; Conviction Calls<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Some statistics from the research department at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Macquarie<\/span><\/strong>:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Earnings per share (EPS) fell by -20%, an outcome on par with the GFC, says the broker (Others have estimates falling by between -17.5%-22%)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Earnings beats were primarily driven by small caps and new economy companies<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Macquarie&rsquo;s buy ideas from the August season, included in the strategy portfolio, are Charter Hall ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CHC<\/span>)), Amcor ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMC<\/span>)), Worley ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WOR<\/span>)), Fortescue Metals ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FMG<\/span>)), BHP Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BHP<\/span>)), Crown Resorts ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CWN<\/span>)), Sydney Airport ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SYD<\/span>)), Ramsay Health Care ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RHC<\/span>)), Telstra, and Oil Search ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">OSH<\/span>))<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Maquarie&rsquo;s EPS growth forecasts are for 4.8% in FY21 -driven by iron ore- and 11% in FY22<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Macquarie has singled out two covid-19 beneficiaries that seem destined for underperformance: ResMed and Ansell<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Investors looking to rotate into covid-19 losers should consider Crown Resorts, Star Entertainment ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SGR<\/span>)), Sydney Airport, Qantas ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">QAN<\/span>)), Cochlear ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">COH<\/span>)), and IDP Education ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IEL<\/span>))<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Value opportunities to consider include Qantas, BlueScope Steel ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BSL<\/span>)), Challenger, Telstra, Oil Search, Stockland ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SGP<\/span>)), Link Administration ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LNK<\/span>)), nib Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NHF<\/span>)), Transurban ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TCL<\/span>)), BHP Group, Lendlease ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LLC<\/span>)), Ramsay Health Care<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Stocks to avoid, Macquarie suggests, include Hub24 ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">HUB<\/span>)), Netwealth Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NWL<\/span>)), Ansell, and Newcrest Mining ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NCM<\/span>))<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Potential value traps, according to Macquarie: Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Alumina Ltd ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AWC<\/span>)), InvoCare, Whitehaven Coal ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WHC<\/span>)), and CommBank ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CBA<\/span>)) &ndash; I bet you haven&rsquo;t seen the latter being called a value trap, possibly ever!<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Some additions from&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">stockbroker Morgans<\/span><\/strong>:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-50% of companies that reported FY20 earnings are forecast to return to FY19 numbers in FY21 (pretty good, considering)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-In general terms, market earnings in Australia are forecast to recover to FY19 levels by 2022<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-In this context Morgans finds the local market&rsquo;s 17x FY22 profit forecast &ldquo;passable&rdquo; on the proviso investors remain happy to look through the two years&#039; earnings dip and wear associated risks to the economic recovery<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Dividend payers considered well-placed to weather the risks, include Aurizon Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AZJ<\/span>)), APA Group, Centuria Industrial REIT ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CIP<\/span>)), Iress ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IRE<\/span>)), IPH Ltd ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IPH<\/span>)), and Waypoint REIT<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">UBS<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&nbsp;made the point that heavily shorted stocks were among major market outperformers in August.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Sze Chuah<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">, senior investment strategist at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Ord Minnett,<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;has equally made a number of changes post reporting season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Ord Minnett has identified five themes for investors to incorporate in their strategies and portfolios; four positive and one negative.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Theme 1: Reopening and recovery<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Preferred exposures include National Australia Bank ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NAB<\/span>)), Origin Energy, Star Entertainment, and Sealink Travel Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SLK<\/span>))<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Theme 2: Flight to quality<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Here Ord Minnett&rsquo;s assessment of &ldquo;quality&rdquo; is clearly different from mine (in some cases). Preferred exposures are Amcor, APA Group, Coca-Cola Amatil ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CCL<\/span>)), Coles ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">COL<\/span>)), GPT Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GPT<\/span>)), Rio Tinto ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RIO<\/span>)), and Sonic Healthcare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SHL<\/span>))<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Theme 3: Dividend defenders (low chance of having to cut)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Preferred exposures: AusNet Services ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AST<\/span>)), Charter Hal Long WALE REIT ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CLW<\/span>)), Perpetual ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PPT<\/span>)), Service Stream ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SSM<\/span>)), and Waypoint REIT ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WPR<\/span>))<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Theme 4: Policy tailwinds (companies that rely less on economic conditions)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Suggested exposures: Clover Corp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CLV<\/span>)), Cleanaway Waste Management ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CLW<\/span>)), Hub24, and Lynas Corp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LYC<\/span>))<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Theme 5: Risky Business (best to avoid)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Here Sze has removed Flight Centre ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FLT<\/span>)) and TechnologyOne ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TNE<\/span>)), both following share price weakness.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Remain on the avoid list: Computershare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CPU<\/span>)), Northern Star ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NST<\/span>)), Goodman Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GMG<\/span>)), Tabcorp Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TAH<\/span>)), and Treasury Wine Estates ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TWE<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Small Cap specialists at UBS<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&nbsp;have updated their list of most preferred stocks, now including Eagers Automotive ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APE<\/span>)), Appen, Bapcor ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BAP<\/span>)), Breville Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BRG<\/span>)), Collins Foods ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CKF<\/span>)), EclipX Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ECX<\/span>)), Graincorp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GNC<\/span>)), Harvey Norman ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">HVN<\/span>)), IDP Education, NRW Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NWH<\/span>)), NextDC ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NXT<\/span>)), and United Malt Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">UMG<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">UBS&rsquo;s key sell recommendation remains TechnologyOne, with the analysts suggesting while this remains a high quality business, risks are building short term from covid-19 interruptions and a potentially slower migration to SaaS by clients.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The team has also lined up a list of &ldquo;laggards&rdquo; that could well turn into winners over the next six months: Webjet ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WEB<\/span>)), G8 Education ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GEM<\/span>)), Servcorp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SRV<\/span>)), Flexigroup ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FXL<\/span>)), Audinate Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AD8<\/span>)), Corporate Travel Management ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CTD<\/span>)), Bingo Industries ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BIN<\/span>)), and AMA Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMA<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Their peers at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">JP Morgan<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;have elevated Superloop ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SLC<\/span>)) to be their Top Pick, while Flight Centre is Bottom Pick.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Strategists at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Morgans<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;see the biggest potential for upside surprise from here onwards with companies higher leveraged to economic activity and currently held back by low expectations. Think sectors like Travel, Gaming, Energy, and Commercial Services.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Key stock ideas post August are divided over four baskets:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Blue Chips:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Westpac ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WBC<\/span>)), BHP Group, Rio Tinto, Macquarie Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MQG<\/span>)), Amcor, Aurizon Holdings, Coles<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Quality Growth:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-ResMed, Aristocrat Leisure ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ALL<\/span>)), NextDC, Breville Group, Hub24<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Recovery plays:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Sydney Airport, Corporate Travel Management, ALS Ltd ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ALQ<\/span>)), Aventus Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AVN<\/span>)), Santos ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">STO<\/span>)), Beach Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BPT<\/span>)), Eagers Automotive, Incitec Pivot ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IPL<\/span>))<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Defensive yield:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-APA Group, APN Convenience Retail REIT ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AQR<\/span>)), and Waypoint REIT<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Morgans also retains a positive view towards&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">retailers<\/span><\/strong>, with the strong sales momentum experienced by many leading into August expected to remain firm at least until the start of 2021.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Morgans argues retailers face two large risks: societies opening up quicker, or government support being withdrawn.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Preferential ideas leading into AGM season include Adairs, Accent Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AX1<\/span>)), Baby Bunting ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BBN<\/span>)), Domino&rsquo;s Pizza ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">DMP<\/span>)), and Super Retail ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SUL<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Following August, and a strong rally for many retailers, Morgans&rsquo; sector preference lays with Adairs, Eagers Automotive, Breville Group and Super Retail.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The broker prefers a cheaper entry point for Baby Bunting, and is willing to be patient with Lovisa Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LOV<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Market strategists at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Wilsons<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;stick with their Quality and Growth bias, but have nevertheless decided it&rsquo;s best to add more cyclicality to their Australian Focus List portfolio, as positive vaccine news can potentially change market dynamics instantly and dramatically.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Wilsons added Reliance Worldwide ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RWC<\/span>)), while also adding to exposure to BHP Group, Seven Group Holdings, Santos, and News Corp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NWS<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Equally remarkable, Wilsons has decided to remain Overweight the local healthcare sector and has reduced the weighting of CSL ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CSL<\/span>)) but increased exposure to ResMed.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Strategists at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Citi<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;highlight the point the division between higher valued and lower valued stocks is, essentially, a division between those who have growth, and are expected to continue to grow, and those who don&rsquo;t have it.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Sectors expected to continue growing earnings over FY19-FY22 are healthcare, food &amp; beverages, retailing and technology.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">With exception of food &amp; beverages, these are the sectors that outperformed throughout August, further underpinning Citi&rsquo;s analysis.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Value investors should be aware that if current market expectations continue to be met, the same growth companies should continue to outperform the market laggards, where growth remains absent, suggests Citi.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As such, the analysts observe sectors that offer growth outperform, irrespective of downgrades to forecasts.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Which then leads to the following statement: &ldquo;<em><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Until COVID-19 distortions to economies begin to fade, companies with earnings growth should continue to outperform and widen the valuation divide.<\/span><\/em>&rdquo;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Citi&rsquo;s forecasts are more subdued for FY21, with a much bigger growth recovery projected for FY22 (16.9%). The difference for FY21 seems to be in Resources, which suggests a different view on iron ore, or simply one catch-up short that still needs to happen.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This doesn&rsquo;t negate the fact that, as forecasts stand post August, the big focal point for today&rsquo;s value &amp; laggard stocks, and the Australian share market in general, is FY22, not the year ahead.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Citi strategists in the US also believe today&rsquo;s elevated valuations for the top leaders on the US stock market are&nbsp;similar to the bubble-alike valuations back in 2000, when measured by backward looking data and corrected for the much lower taxes being paid today.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">While fully well realising how contentious this type of analysis\/conclusions are, the strategists do acknowledge the fact&nbsp;such valuations were more broad-based back then.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Peter Warnes<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">, head of equities research at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Morningstar<\/span><\/strong>, believes Trump will win the November 3 election in the US.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">August 2020 Fits The Post-2013 Narrative<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As we leave August 2020 behind us, dominated by a domestic reporting season that on multiple levels proved better-than-feared, it is my personal observation that investors in Australia now can be clearly divided in two opposing groups:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-those who are elated and chuffed as exposure to the sharp rebound in equities has paid off in spades, or at least it has seriously mitigated the losses incurred earlier in the year;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-those who feel deeply frustrated as most of their money is not in the share market, or it is in equities that have not fully participated in the strong recovery off the late-March low.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Probably the stock that illustrates the 2020 share market narrative the best in Australia is Afterpay ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APT<\/span>)), a local payments facilitator that only started life as a publicly listed company in mid-2017.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Who could ever have imagined that a little over three years later, this company is now the global leader in a newly emerging online segment of the global payment processing industry, one that now has everybody&rsquo;s attention, with Afterpay&rsquo;s market capitalisation rallying into the local Top20?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The Afterpay story is two-fold: on the one hand we have an increasing number of newly listed technology disruptors who start from humble beginnings but potentially have a great future ahead of them.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On the other hand, the covid-19 pandemic and global lockdowns have pushed newly emerging societal shifts and trends into acceleration, with the unexpected result there are companies and business models out there that are not just benefiting, they are thriving.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">When I met up with an old mate of mine recently, who&rsquo;s a mortgage broker, I was perplexed to hear many of his customers who run a caf&eacute; or restaurant are, post the initial scare from lockdowns, currently experiencing extreme boom-time conditions.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Lockdowns are bad news. The human instinct is to focus on the sad stories that emerge. Many cafes and restaurants in my neighbourhood are still closed, or have vacated the premises.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">But those re-opening in the right place and with the right adjustments and operational costs are meeting huge pent-up demand.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Every crisis shares that same common core characteristic: the strong will become stronger.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This time around, the global pandemic has created a separate group of &ldquo;lucky winners&rdquo;, so to speak, and their growth potential has been turbo-charged.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Afterpay might be among the few truly lucky ones on the ASX that are enjoying two firm, beneficial shifts driving their business and the share price, they are certainly not the only one.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In many ways, the Afterpay story is not dissimilar from NextDC&rsquo;s ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NXT<\/span>)), or from Xero&rsquo;s ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">XRO<\/span>)), or from Carsales&rsquo; ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CAR<\/span>)), and a number of others.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Not every sustainable growth story listed on the ASX is equally witnessing their customers&rsquo; spending going ballistic, but if they are truly carried by market leadership, a defendable moat, a commercial advantage, and they are not weighed down by too much debt, an inability to amend or cut costs, or by delusional or bad management, they will come out stronger, if they haven&rsquo;t already.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Short-term threats and issues aside, beneath the surface of daily moving share prices, the dominating narrative of successful investing in the share market has not changed since 2013: it&rsquo;s about finding growth, and sticking by it.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">You certainly wouldn&rsquo;t want to bet against it.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Goodman Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GMG<\/span>)) just beat its own guidance, yet again, for the ninth time in succession. Nick Scali ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NCK<\/span>)) has guided for 60% growth in net profit this half to December.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">ARB Corp&rsquo;s ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ARB<\/span>)) order book is at an all-time record high.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">NextDC&rsquo;s&nbsp;quintessential dilemma is that demand growth for data centres is so strong, it may potentially run out of capacity before the next phase of expansion becomes available.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Of course, for long term investors as opposed to shorter-term momentum followers, the crucial question is the longevity of it all. Reading through analysts&rsquo; research reports in August, this is equally front of mind for those who need to put a value and a recommendation on these stocks.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Most question marks involve retailers currently shooting the lights out.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As strong and solid as the companies above, and many more others, stood out with their financial performances in August, for plenty of others what comes naturally to the few remains too hard to accomplish or to maintain.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Shares in AMP ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMP<\/span>)) might look undervalued, and they have been for quite a while, but the company again disappointed in August, while attracting lots of media coverage for all the wrong reasons.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If ever a company on the local bourse has provided plenty of evidence that paying attention to corporate culture, and to ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance criteria) in general is not a luxury but essential, it would have to be AMP.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">I also believe it is companies like AMP that are teaching your typical &ldquo;value&rdquo; investor some incredibly harsh lessons, causing immense frustration for much longer.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Other examples from the same basket of &ldquo;simply offering too much attraction to resist&rdquo;, but proving frustrating duds instead, include (in no particular order) Boral ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BLD<\/span>)), Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">URW<\/span>)), Ainsworth Game Technology ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AGI<\/span>)), Bendigo and Adelaide Bank ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BEN<\/span>)), Challenger&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CGF<\/span>)), and yes, let&rsquo;s throw Telstra ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TLS<\/span>)) in the mix as well.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Let&rsquo;s call a spade a spade: shares in growth companies might temporarily get a bit hot under the collar, but they are still multiple times a better investment than cheap looking stocks that cannot deliver the bare essential, which is growth.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">One special mention goes out to Whitehaven Coal ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WHC<\/span>)) whose share price got clobbered upon realisation that if coal prices stay at current low level for much longer, this company will receive that dreaded phone call from its lenders.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This is not to say the company is facing insolvency or the board might have to call in administrators, but a fresh equity raising (at a serious discount) will definitely become a real possibility &ndash; and that&rsquo;s what the market has now quickly priced in.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Another special mention has to be made for the local aged care providers, with all of Regis Healthcare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">REG<\/span>)), Estia Health ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">EHE<\/span>)) and Japara Healthcare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JHC<\/span>)) yet again being exposed as underfunded, low quality, struggling operators in a sector that has not necessarily seen the final piece of bad news just yet.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As well, while share price responses throughout August have been mostly positive, see also CommSec data further below, investors better not lose sight of what has been the main story in share markets for the past few years: gains achieved by new competitors and disruptors are creating headwinds for under-fire incumbents.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Analysts at Citi, on Monday, argued the case that strong momentum for the likes of Sportsbet and BetEasy, where top line and margins are almost literally flying higher as Australian punters are moving online, stand in sharp contrast with declining revenues at Tabcorp Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TAH<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">While optimistic shareholders in Tabcorp might argue bricks and mortar venues will re-open at some point, Citi points out Sportsbet in particular is spending hard and fast to pamper these new clients in an attempt to make them stick.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Tabcorp is equally one of the larger cap stories on the ASX that has provided mostly frustration for investors who thought they were buying into an attractive, cheap looking valuation, with an attractive looking yield.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The share price remains well, well below the pre-covid level, and prior to the sell-off in February those shares had range-traded for five years!<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Citi thinks Tabcorp is still only half way to a more sustainable outlook, post capital raising and that badly needed cut to the payout ratio. Current yield 2.2% on FY21 consensus forecasts.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The broker suggests the incoming CEO needs to reset the wagering business and exit gaming services in order to pull this moribund elephant back onto a sustainable growth path.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The story for all of these, and many other companies remains the same: today&rsquo;s cheap looking share price can only move sustainably higher if and when the successful turnaround arrives, and that means: growth, where art thou?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Australian bank shares, with notable exception of CommBank ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CBA<\/span>)), are still circa -25% below pre-covid prices.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In similar vein as for others in that &ldquo;cheap but frustrating&rdquo; basket of stocks, UBS banking analysts concluded on Monday it&rsquo;s best investors retain a cautious approach to the sector.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">For Australian banks to shake off their current book value discount, UBS suggests the following stepping stones need to fall into place:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-we need to see ongoing reduction in virus cases, preferably with positive news about a vaccine<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-economic data needs to continue to improve<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-the bond market&rsquo;s yield curve (difference between short term and long term bonds) needs to steepen materially<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Of course, there are many more ways for companies and business models under pressure to try to turn around that sagging, moribund momentum.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Long-time struggling telecom reseller amaysim&nbsp;Australia ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AYS<\/span>)) is now selling its energy customers grouped together under the brand of Click Energy to equally struggling energy retailer AGL Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AGL<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">And that other prime example of bad corporate culture and negative ESG scores, IOOF Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IFL<\/span>)) is buying struggling MLC off under-pressure National Australia Bank ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NAB<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">August provided many more examples, both successful and unsuccessful, and investors will be hoping the buyers can get as much (lasting) benefit out of these transactions as the sellers think they do.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Companies that are still looking to sell include BHP Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BHP<\/span>)), Downer EDI ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">DOW<\/span>)), Lendlease ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LLC<\/span>)), and Oil Search ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">OSH<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">With August now done and dusted, FNArena will soon have its final statistics for the season ready, but one observation is easily made: this has been one of the best reporting seasons in a long, long while.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On CommSec&rsquo;s data analysis, 53% of ASX200 companies that reported results saw a lift in share prices on the day of earnings release with an average gain of 0.7% and a gain of 0.8% after two days.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Big gainers include WiseTech Global ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WTC<\/span>)), IDP Education ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IEL<\/span>)) and Monadelphous ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MND<\/span>)) while on the receiving end some of the stand-out punishments were delivered to Whitehaven Coal, Bravura Solutions ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BVS<\/span>)), Nanosonics ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NAN<\/span>)), and Appen ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APX<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Despite persistent weakness towards the end of the month, mostly on macro factors including the strong Australian dollar, the local market rose an additional 2.2% over the season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It got pretty volatile, in particular during the final week, but all in all the undercurrent remained positive.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Of course, the broader context is investors have been hit hard with dividend cuts and many share prices that have not recovered from the February-March mayhem, but companies have shown they still know how to cut costs, and hence beat market expectations.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Irrespective, investors must bear in mind August turned into a positive experience because analysts&rsquo; forecasts were too low, not because corporate Australia has been shooting the lights out.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">A lack of quantitative guidance for the year ahead by companies remains a dominant feature.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On CommSec&rsquo;s numbers, of all companies reporting a profit for FY20, only 48% managed to report growth, with 52% reporting a decline.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Adding all profit reports up for the season, CommSec concludes aggregate earnings were down -38% on a year ago, which in itself was not a great reporting season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">All revenues combined went up by 3.4%, but total expenses rose by 4.1% also because covid-19 required extra measurements, see for example the updates released by Coles ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">COL<\/span>)) and Woolworths ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WOW<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The major pain point, of course, was in dividends.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Even though plenty of companies surprised&nbsp;by unexpectedly paying out a dividend, or a higher dividend, the fact remains, in aggregate, total dividends paid out by Australian companies declined by -36%.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Looking back over the six months to December 2019 (interim results), CommSec reports just over 87% of the ASX200 companies issued a dividend. But for the full year to June 2020, only 69% of companies have elected to pay a cash return to shareholders.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The average over the past 20 reporting seasons stands at 86%.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Still on CommSec data, almost 23% of companies lifted dividends; 12% held dividends steady; 53% of companies reduced dividends or didn&rsquo;t pay a dividend; and 12% of companies that didn&rsquo;t pay a dividend last time (in February) also didn&rsquo;t pay a dividend this time.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Of those trimming dividends, 20% of all companies or 27 companies that paid a dividend last time indicated they won&rsquo;t be paying a final dividend. And 47 companies (34%) paid a reduced dividend.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Of the 94 companies paying a dividend, 33% lifted dividends; 17% kept the payout steady; and 50% reduced the dividend.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">There&rsquo;s plenty of ongoing uncertainty, but also plenty of ongoing support from governments and central banks, leading CommSec to predict the All Ordinaries is likely to remain in a range of 6,350-6,750 by end-2020, with the range for the ASX200 between 6,200-6,600.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Investors might also pay attention to Citi strategists who this week reported Citi&rsquo;s market sentiment gauge, the Panic-Euphoria Model, has surged firmly into euphoria territory.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As a matter of fact, Citi&rsquo;s reading of market sentiment hasn&rsquo;t been this high since early 2001, leading the strategists to warn that, historically, this translates into a 100% probability that share markets are due for a downward correction.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As per always, the exact timing is not yet known.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio still hasn&rsquo;t been enticed into buying shares in Afterpay, but the portfolio has plenty of quality and sustainable growth stocks to keep the performance up.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On my observation from running this portfolio for more than 5.5 years, the portfolio has had mostly positive experiences during each of the February and August reporting seasons, in line with the general observations described earlier.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The portfolio re-allocated some funds into quality, sustainable dividend payers post results in August, and the choice was made to add APA Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APA<\/span>)), Charter Hall Long WALE REIT ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CLW<\/span>)), and Aventus Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AVN<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">We also used share price weakness to add Nanosonics ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NAN<\/span>)) and MNF Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MNF<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">All in all, the Portfolio gained 2.99% over the month, which was slightly better than the ASX200 Accumulation Index at circa 2.7%.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Year to date, since January 1st, the All-Weather Portfolio is up 2.58% whereas the ASX200 Accumulation index is still more than -7% in the negative.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">August Reporting Favours Quality &amp; Growth<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">One observation that has caught my attention is that as times have become tougher for corporate Australia, more companies have decided to release financial results later in the season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">A quick run through recent years&rsquo; reporting seasons has revealed that by this time in August 2018, the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor contained some 70 companies more than it does this year.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">These companies will still be reporting, of course, so expect a tsunami in catch-up financial results releases during the final days of August.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On multiple observations and measurements, reporting seasons in Australia worsened considerably after August 2018 (if we only concentrate on the February and the August seasons).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">No surprise, the balance as to when companies schedule for financial results releases has noticeably shifted towards the final two weeks of each season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Having noted the above, August 2020 has been, all things considered, surprisingly positive thus far.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If current trends hold up for the remaining 140 or so corporate results, then August 2020 will mark a return to the good old days pre-2019; when Australian companies mostly met or beat expectations, and analysts lifted valuations and price targets higher in response.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">[<em><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Paying subscribers can access the archive for Corporate Results Monitors on the FNArena website tracing back to August 2013<\/span><\/em>].<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Thanks to detailed data analysis from JPMorgan, we can now also confirm&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">reporting seasons in Australia are becoming more volatile<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;with sharper price movements occurring in either direction.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Of course, every reporting season generates negative and positive surprises, and share prices tend to reflect this, all else remaining equal. But JPMorgan&rsquo;s analysis clearly shows share prices, on average, respond through bigger moves nowadays and the number of sharp moves remains in an uptrend too.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Underlying all of this, remains a wide dispersion between &ldquo;winners&rdquo; and &ldquo;losers&rdquo; -quality and growth versus lagging value- and post February, a new kind of demarcation has sprung to life as the covid-19 pandemic has created its own set of &ldquo;winners&rdquo; and &ldquo;losers&rdquo;; virus beneficiaries versus victims.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">With uncertainty high and only few companies willing (and able) to provide positive guidance for the year ahead, investors have proved remarkably forgiving&nbsp;in their treatment of companies that didn&rsquo;t quite match expectations.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">While JPMorgan&rsquo;s research is correct in that daily volatility has become sharper and more intense, others are equally making the observation that many more share prices could have been slaughtered under different circumstances, but they received rather mild responses instead.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Indeed, UBS is arguing average volatility this month is actually down in comparison with prior seasons, on its own data analysis.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In ultra-simplistic terms: investors knew uncertainty and unknowns would dominate this season, and they had already decided to adopt the glass half-full approach.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This observation is further underpinned by the fact that share prices for companies that do not provide guidance for the year ahead on average have risen by 2% post financial results release.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Note also: the ASX200 has, on balance, gradually crept up higher as the season progressed. Led by, as UBS likes to emphasise, stocks trading on high Price-Earnings (PE) multiples.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As at Monday, 24<\/span><\/span><\/span><sup><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:7.5pt\">th<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/sup><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&nbsp;August 2020, the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor contained 159 results of which, on our holistic assessment, 54 beat expectations (34%) and only 28 missed (17.6%).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Never in the history of the Corporate Results Monitor have we ever witnessed the Beat\/Miss ratio this close to 2. The highest ratio recorded since 2013 was 1.5 for both August 2015&nbsp;and February 2016.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">I don&rsquo;t think it&rsquo;s unreasonable to expect the percentage of misses to increase over the remaining days.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Equally noteworthy, the numbers yet again look a lot less promising for the ASX50, with only nine beats out of 37 (24%) versus ten fails (27%).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Earnings forecasts are declining, as they do in just about every reporting season, but price targets are going up by more than 4%, which is high on historical precedents, but not unprecedented.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Upgrades and downgrades in broker ratings in response to financial results are to date perfectly balanced; 34 each.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">High valuations, carried by the themes of &ldquo;Quality&rdquo; and &ldquo;Growth&rdquo;, as well as &ldquo;covid-19 beneficiary&rdquo;, have remained one of the stand-out features, yet again, this month.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Despite the gap between &ldquo;winners&rdquo; and &ldquo;losers&rdquo; at an all-time high pre-covid earlier in the year, market strategists at UBS observe that gap is simply refusing to narrow.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If anything, it just keeps getting wider as shares for the likes of Afterpay ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APT<\/span>)), WiseTech Global ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WTC<\/span>)), Netwealth ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NWL<\/span>)), ARB Corp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ARB<\/span>)), etc continue to reach for higher prices, while investors have no appetite for the likes of Whitehaven Coal ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WHC<\/span>)), Vicinity Centres ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">VCX<\/span>)), Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">URW<\/span>)), and Orora ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ORA<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">An important observation in this regard is that analysts&rsquo; expectations for FY21 are for rather benign growth, in particular given the large decline experienced in FY20. Rising costs and the need for additional investments are only part of this story.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Strategists at Morgan Stanley summarised it as follows: the upgrade cycle for corporate Australia has yet again been delayed.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">FY22 now marks the earliest return of growth for the majority of Australian companies. I think this virtually guarantees the extreme polarisation that has characterised the share market post 2013 is here to stay for longer.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The good news is that when FY22 does live up to current expectations, average EPS growth might jump by 16%, as per current forecasts at Morgan Stanley.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">But there is a long way that yet needs to be traveled between now and then.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">For what it&rsquo;s worth: Morgan Stanley sees the share market as stretched in valuations given the absence of growth between now and FY22.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Only few companies have provided quantitative guidance, and most of such guidance has been negative a la AGL Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AGL<\/span>)), Origin Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ORG<\/span>)), Telstra ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TLS<\/span>)), Challenger ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CGF<\/span>)), and Seek ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SEK<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Macquarie identified the few from the Top100 that have come out with concrete, positive guidance as: WiseTech Global, Goodman Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GMG<\/span>)), Amcor ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMC<\/span>)), CSL ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CSL<\/span>)) and Brambles ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BXB<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">That is by anyone&rsquo;s account, not an extensive list.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Best results delivered so far, according to Maquarie, have come from Charter Hall ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CHC<\/span>)), Nick Scali ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NCK<\/span>)) and Baby Bunting ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BBN<\/span>)), followed by JB Hi-Fi ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JBH<\/span>)), Charter Hall Long WALE REIT&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CLW<\/span>)) and Codan ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CDA<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Worst results were the ones from Vicinity Centres, Santos ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">STO<\/span>)), Qantas ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">QAN<\/span>)), AGL Energy, Seek and GWA Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GWA<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Themes that have emerged as clear winners (and losers) this reporting season, include:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Covid-19 is good for housing with work-from-home putting pressure on offices;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Car ownership is back in fashion too, with public transport on the receiving end;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-This pandemic has created booming conditions for parts of the retail sector;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-Mining and mining services remain robust, as long as there is no connection to coal<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">And then there was the matter of dividends&hellip;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On Macquarie&rsquo;s numbers, nearly 60% of companies have reduced their dividend at least by -10%, while nearly 25% increased dividends by +10% or more.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The good news is nearly 70% of companies are still paying a dividend, with 23% reducing their dividend to zero for the half.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Real Estate delivered most of the dividend cuts, followed by Resources.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On my own observation, many of the laggards have stuck to the script that when all else fails to deliver, it&rsquo;s best to at least provide shareholders a surprise through the dividend.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Witness, for example, even the board at South32 ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">S32<\/span>)) couldn&rsquo;t help itself but pay out a symbolic US1c this half &ndash; better than nothing!<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Within this context it is interesting to note that, on Citi&rsquo;s observation, investors chose to reward banks that delivered better earnings results this month (including through trading updates) rather than an extra effort through paying a dividend.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In line with assessments elsewhere, banking analysts at Citi believe bank share prices look cheaply valued, but the key challenge is yet to come in Q4 when government stimulus is&nbsp;wound back, deferred loan periods have expired and unemployment is expected to peak in Australia.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Market strategists at Citi have identified three key dividend surprises this season: AMP ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMP<\/span>)), Newcrest Mining ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NCM<\/span>)), and Woodside Petroleum ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WPL<\/span>)) in that market forecasts for all three dividends have increased for both this year and next.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On current trends, market consensus is likely to settle around -22% in earnings per share (EPS) retreat for FY20, to be followed by circa 6% growth in FY21, which might then be followed by 13.4% growth in FY22.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Utilities, as a group, are not expected to join in&nbsp;the return of growth, while Technology, Healthcare, Insurance, Gaming and Staples are presenting themselves as key drivers for those growth projections for the years ahead.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Expectations for banks are unusually mixed. The sector is responsible for the largest downward corrections in dividend forecasts this season, followed by real estate, then other financials.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The largest upward revision in price target surely goes to online artwork market-place Redbubble with stockbroker Morgans lifting its target on Monday to $4.33 from 54c previously.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">UBS has tipped NextDC ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NXT<\/span>)) for a potential positive surprise on 27<\/span><\/span><\/span><sup><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:7.5pt\">th<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/sup><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&nbsp;August.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Early Signals From August 2020<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">At first glance, this year&rsquo;s August reporting season is providing support to the strong share market recovery witnessed since April, decisively delivering more &ldquo;beats&rdquo; than &ldquo;misses&rdquo; in corporate results and with stockbroking analysts increasing their price targets on average by 4.79%.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As per always, broader context is necessary to put the first two weeks of August in a proper framework.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The most important factor to consider is that the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor as at the 17<\/span><\/span><\/span><sup><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:7.5pt\">th<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/sup><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&nbsp;August still only includes 55 ASX-listed companies with subsequent broker responses.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">While the Monitor operates on a 24-hour delay, the time needed for analysts to respond and reassess, properly, 55 companies to date is well below prior reporting seasons this far into the month.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Hence, it&rsquo;s dangerous to draw firm conclusions from such a small batch of reports, involving no more than 15 members of the ASX50 and 35 of the ASX200, but it cannot be denied early indications are relatively positive and investors are showing a willingness to look through short-term headwinds, as I anticipated.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">We will all be a lot wiser by this time next week, but as early indications go this season is heading for:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-circa -20% fall in earnings per share<br \/>-circa -38% reduction in dividends, with payout ratios on the rise (again)<br \/>-mild growth forecasts for FY21 (meaning growth won&rsquo;t return until FY22 for many)<br \/>-on balance, net increases to valuations &amp; price targets<br \/>-roughly balanced moves between upgrades and downgrades in stockbroker recommendations<br \/>-ongoing uncertainty with most companies refraining from providing FY21 guidance<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Dividend Surprises<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The biggest positive stand-out has come through numerous&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">upside surprises for shareholder dividends<\/span><\/strong>, including from AGL Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AGL<\/span>)) whose dim outlook surprised many, but the AGL board decided the company shall payout 100% of profits over the next two years.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The AGL example serves as an early guide as to how Australian boards (still) feel compelled to use just about anything at their disposal in order to meet the income requirements from a large group of domestic shareholders.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Apart from AGL, more dividend surprises have come from AMP ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMP<\/span>)), Aurizon Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AZJ<\/span>)), Evolution Mining ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">EVN<\/span>)), GPT Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GPT<\/span>)), Newcrest Mining ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NCM<\/span>)), and QBE Insurance ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">QBE<\/span>)) while CommBank&rsquo;s ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CBA<\/span>)) 98c H2 payout was more than many analysts had penciled in.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Of course, as the above summary indicates, many more companies will not be paying any dividends this year, or next year, but many others won&rsquo;t be holding back, effectively creating yet another demarcation between &ldquo;winners&rdquo; and &ldquo;losers&rdquo;.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As many of the dividend payers are receiving support from government programs such as JobKeeper, a public discussion has broken out about the appropriateness of such payouts.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The irony from this reporting season, thus far, is that the miners are swimming in cash, and showing restraint in paying out dividends, also because costs are rising and more capex needs to be spent.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Positive Beats<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On FNArena&rsquo;s early assessment, some 34.5% (19) of companies reporting has beaten market expectations while only 16.4% (9) delivered a &ldquo;miss&rdquo;.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If these numbers hold up until early September, then 2020 would easily become the best August reporting season in Australia since 2013, but, again, too early to make such projections.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">What we can assess is that already a number of companies have crowned themselves to&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">stand-out winners<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;and losers for the season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On the positive side, Goodman Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GMG<\/span>)) yet again showcased to investors just how strong the shift to online spending has become.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It wasn&rsquo;t that long ago Goodman Group shares offered no more than 3.5% prospective yield, which elicited quite the number of calls denominating the stock &ldquo;grossly overvalued&rdquo;, yet today the yield stretches no farther than 1.6%, signalling the stock has (more than) doubled in price since 2016.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">And still growing strong, with analysts further lifting growth estimates, which elevates price targets further, allowing traders and investors to push up the share price higher without the risk of running out of oxygen.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Another positive stand-out is REA Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">REA<\/span>)) whose FY20 release yet again showcased the true value of operating the number one real estate portal in the property-mad country that is Australia.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As with Goodman Group, REA Group shares have continued to climb and remain close to an all-time record high. The key difference is that analysts&rsquo; price targets are all below the present share price.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Rio Tinto ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RIO<\/span>)) too delivered a strong performance, overshadowed by the board restraining itself with the half-year dividend, while James Hardie ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JHX<\/span>)) remains clearly on a roll, and coal-stricken Aurizon Holdings equally delivered on promises and potential.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Some results were strong, but the market had other ideas. Hence the likes of ResMed ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RMD<\/span>)) and Breville Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BRG<\/span>)) received capital punishment post market update.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Long-term oriented investors should keep in mind these companies still have a lot of potential growth ahead of them.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">At the risk of stating the obvious, it has become evident already some retailers are enjoying boom-conditions because Australians, simply put, don&rsquo;t know where to spend their money otherwise.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Major disappointments<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">I&rsquo;ll say it again: highly valued companies are no more likely to disappoint during reporting seasons than laggards and cheaply priced companies.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">What you won&rsquo;t easily find is a highly valued stock that rallies 10% or more upon the release of company financials.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As such, owners of shares in AMP ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMP<\/span>)), Treasury Wine Estates ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TWE<\/span>)), Baby Bunting ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BBN<\/span>)) and Navigator Global Investments ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NGI<\/span>)) are feeling a lot happier today than those who own Goodman Group and REA Group.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">But what about shareholders in AGL Energy? Challenger Financial ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CGF<\/span>))? Or in Telstra ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TLS<\/span>)) which, according to some analysts, seemed poised to drop the mantle of perennial disappointer this month, but it simply was not to be.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Telstra pretty much dropped yet another booby trap among investors, creating even more doubt about dividend sustainability and the way forward for Australia&rsquo;s largest telco.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It wasn&rsquo;t that long ago that I reminded investors that with so many unhappy customers, a conglomerate so much under pressure is highly unlikely to elevate itself to a position -ever- from where it can deliver long-lasting, sustainable benefits for loyal shareholders.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Post Telstra&rsquo;s FY20 report, the share price is back hovering above the $3 mark, not far off from the March low, while analysts&rsquo; updated forecasts are implying lower dividends this year, and yet again in FY22.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Investors should also consider the annual receipts from the NBN will cease not long thereafter.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">I am increasingly leaning towards the idea that Telstra is looking into creating value through cutting itself up in smaller pieces, which shall be spun-off in order to make the sum of the parts count for more than the conglomerate in its current form.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Job classifieds market operator Seek ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SEK<\/span>)) too spooked investors with a much more fragile assessment of what the future might look like ex-China.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">A special mentioning goes out to Hamish Douglass and the rest of the crew at Magellan Financial Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MFG<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Not only are they one of few asset managers in Australia who operate on the right side of the market shift caused by low growth, low inflation, ageing demographics and super-charged technological disruption, like other iconic success stories elsewhere, Magellan has yet again proven a great company is not afraid to disrupt itself.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Instead of staring oneself blind on a high\/low Price-Earnings (PE) ratio, or high\/low implied dividend yield, many an investor would do their portfolio one massive favour by paying attention to the attributes that don&rsquo;t show up in an Excel data overview, but which shall be the subject of academic dissertations for years to follow.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Investors should also note stocks like Goodman Group, REA Group, and ResMed are proudly owned by the FNArena\/Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio (see also further below).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Paying subscribers can check up on my research into All-Weather stocks via a dedicated section on the website (with fresh updates on Dividend Champions):<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/analysis-data\/all-weather-stocks\/\"><span style=\"color:#12417F\">https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/analysis-data\/all-weather-stocks\/<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">August 2020: Early Results<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The local reporting season in Australia is slowly gathering pace. Let&rsquo;s remind ourselves how important financial results are for market sentiment and thus for how share prices will be treated for the weeks and months ahead.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Often, how companies are being judged is through the lense of: beat or disappointment? Black or white. Superb or poor.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">That judgment is made not on the 30% profit growth, or the decision to pay out a dividend, or the heavy losses incurred during lockdowns or bushfires, but on how the financials compare to what analysts had penciled in their modeling.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The ruling narrative is companies which disappoint might see their share price underperform for up to four months, while those who manage to surprise positively are most likely rewarded with longer-lasting outperformance.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">That&rsquo;s one side of the story.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The other side is that sustainable, structural growers can disappoint with their market update, and all of CSL ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CSL<\/span>)), Cochlear ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">COH<\/span>)), REA Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">REA<\/span>)), TechnologyOne ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TNE<\/span>)), and others have at varying times done exactly that, with direct consequences for the share price in the immediate aftermath.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">But take a longer-term view, and what do we see? Every single one of those sell-offs today looks nothing but a temporary blip in an ongoing, long-term uptrend.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">And that, I like to think, is the key message investors should keep in mind when volatility hits this reporting season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The early stage of the August reporting season saw REA Group showing off its in-built resilience, while ResMed&rsquo;s result was better-than-expected but downgraded as &ldquo;low quality&rdquo; with cautious guidance by management not received well by flighty traders.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Clearly, day-to-day operations for healthcare bellwethers CSL, Cochlear and ResMed have been impacted by the virus and forced lockdowns, but the real question investors should be asking is whether this means these companies are running out of puff and soon will find themselves having turned ex-growth.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">You know my opinion on this. All three, as well as REA Group, remain firmly embedded in my selection of All-Weather Stocks on the ASX.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Admittedly, a continuing strengthening of the Aussie dollar, as predicted by some, will complicate the outlook for foreign earners in Australia, but when it comes to forecasting FX, most experts&rsquo; track record is not something to boast about.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Shorter term, market forecasts and expectations have seldom been as wide as for FY20, including for healthcare companies with most having withdrawn guidance, leaving analysts and investors to speculate what can and should be expected.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">One positive stand-out to date is Ansell ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ANN<\/span>)), not a typical healthcare stock, but Credit Suisse believes this is the early stage of a structural switch that will put the company&rsquo;s growth outlook on much firmer footing.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The most talked about remains, of course, Australia&rsquo;s number one biotech stock, CSL. It&rsquo;ll be interesting to see how much guidance management is prepared to share regarding the outlook for plasma and other parts of the business in FY21, and beyond.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">CSL is too complex for most investors during less complicated times. This time around it&rsquo;s anyone&rsquo;s guess what will become the focus post reporting on August 19.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Outside of the local healthcare sector, analysts are still busy assessing what might and can be revealed this month, but investors should appreciate uncertainty has seldom been at this year&rsquo;s level.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">For sectors including airports, airlines, accommodation, travel and leisure, and Australian banks, August comes too early; many questions will remain unanswered. Analysts anticipate companies might defer to the AGM season in November when attempting to predict what comes next.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Iron ore producers are generating lots of cash, but how cautious will company boards be when deciding how much to pay out in dividends to shareholders?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Sectors like oil and gas producers will have horror updates to make, including the scrapping of dividends and capex\/expenses, while writing down the value of assets &ndash; but investors are very well aware of it all.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Meanwhile, portfolio rotation (or at least: attempts to it), currency movements and other macro factors will continue to impact on general sentiment and share prices.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">August 2020: Nothing Like The Past<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Corporate earnings have not been front of mind for share market investors over the year past.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Last year&rsquo;s August reporting season marked the weakest performance for corporate Australia since the GFC, yet 5.5 months later the ASX200 surged to an all-time record high of 7162.50.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Meanwhile, in the background of it all, dividend payers in Australia, including the major banks, had already started to reduce nominal payouts.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Corporate reporting in February was fully overshadowed by the realisation that a global pandemic was spreading fast.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Since then we had global lockdowns, social distancing, an accelerated race for a vaccine, treatment or cure, recessions, central banks liquidity and credit support, government safety net programs, and regional virus drawbacks, but no profit warnings as company boards in Australia have been temporarily excused from the legal requirement to keep investors fully informed.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It is probably a fair assessment that August 2020 is taking place amidst the highest level of uncertainty for a very long time.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As to how exactly investors are going to respond to corporate profits and the lack thereof throughout the month ahead is anyone&rsquo;s guess, especially with so many expert voices proclaiming equities are pricing in too much optimism.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">first eight corporate results<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;during the final week of July don&rsquo;t offer much in terms of blue print. Only one of those eight -Credit Corp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CCP<\/span>))- was able to issue earnings guidance for the year ahead.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">None of the share prices put in a big rally post event, but several have seen profit-taking and weakness kicking in since, including Credit Corp.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Then again, Credit Corp&rsquo;s in-line FY20 profit result was no less than -78% below prior guidance, which had been withdrawn in March.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Cimic Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CIM<\/span>)) missed expectations, Emeco Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">EHL<\/span>)) reported in-line with just about everyone calling the stock undervalued and Rio Tinto ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RIO<\/span>)) surprised on the upside in what could become the broad context for the commodities sector in general this month.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">A cautious Rio Tinto board did not surprise with a bigger-than-expected dividend announcement.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Covid-19 has accelerated the adoption and acceptance of new technologies and trends, further widening the gap between winners and losers in the share market, so it probably shouldn&rsquo;t surprise online retailer Temple &amp; Webster&rsquo;s ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TPW<\/span>)) result was generally well-received.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Again, Temple &amp; Webster shares have seen some profit-taking kicking in post event.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Three of the eight companies have indicated how important government support programs are to their operations and profitability. This too adds to the general uncertainty.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Investors will continue their focus on dividend reliability and sustainability, but in many cases they will have to make assessments in the absence of any concrete guidance from the companies themselves.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Realistically, how much can one expect from airports and airlines, for example, whose revenues have been decimated without any insights as to when their operations might &ldquo;normalise&rdquo;?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Numbers from the US too confirm more companies prefer not to issue guidance for the year ahead with only circa one-in-four confident enough to do so, and this includes negative adjustments.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">I wouldn&rsquo;t be drawing on too many references from the past this reporting season. It&rsquo;s a whole new ball game this season, and macro matters remain plenty and all-important.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">One of the key characteristics of 2020 is that the virus has disrupted the concept of what makes a &ldquo;defensive&rdquo; company or asset.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Even outside of banks, and operators of&nbsp;toll roads and airports, many financials and industrial companies are now offering reduced yields.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It&rsquo;ll only further add to the determination of many an income-hungry investor.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Australian investors already had to adjust for the erosion of the age-old concept of blue chips in the share market. Now &ldquo;defensive&rdquo; no longer means what it used to be.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Which shoe will be dropping next? Safe as houses?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On most forecasts, dividend reductions this year might approach the carnage of the GFC, possibly worse. And August is not necessarily the end of this sorry narrative.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Analysts at Citi recently lined up forecasts for the top 50 dividend payers on the ASX. The small list of stocks that are expected to&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">continue increasing dividend payments<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;in the years ahead includes CSL ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CSL<\/span>)), Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">URW<\/span>)), Amcor ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMC<\/span>)), Coles ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">COL<\/span>)), APA Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APA<\/span>)), Goodman Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GMG<\/span>)), Aurizon Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AZJ<\/span>)), ResMed ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RMD<\/span>)), Medibank Private ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MPL<\/span>)), Magellan Financial Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MFG<\/span>)), Computershare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CPU<\/span>)), Evolution Mining ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">EVN<\/span>)) and Charter Hall ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CHC<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Not all these stocks are trading on low enough multiples to guarantee a reasonable yield. UR-Westfield remains under threat of a capital raising as well as further write-downs of asset values.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Companies for whom a dividend reduction might just be a one-off include BHP Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BHP<\/span>)), Wesfarmers ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WES<\/span>)), AusNet Services ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AST<\/span>)), Dexus Property Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">DXS<\/span>)), GPT Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GPT<\/span>)), Janus Henderson ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JHG<\/span>)), Sonic Healthcare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SHL<\/span>)), Mirvac Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MGR<\/span>)), Lendlease ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LLC<\/span>)), and Coca-Cola Amatil ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CCL<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In what might well be regarded as very uncharacteristic for the decade&rsquo;s best performing sector on the ASX,<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">&nbsp;healthcare<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;has traded in early safe haven outperformance for notable underperformance post late-March.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Behind this observation hides yet another widening gap, with the likes of ResMed, Sonic Healthcare, Ansell ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ANN<\/span>)), &nbsp;and Fisher &amp; Paykel Healthcare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FPH<\/span>)) surging to new all-time record highs, while CSL, Cochlear ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">COH<\/span>)) and Ramsay Health Care ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RHC<\/span>)) have been left behind.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Recent analysis by JP Morgan revealed many institutional investors have been adding to their healthcare exposure in June, no doubt encouraged by the relative de-rating for the laggards in the sector.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">JP Morgan strategists reported they are equally inclined to follow suit as the outlook for risk assets favours a more defensive portfolio stance.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Data suggest the largest fund inflows went into ResMed and Ramsay Health Care shares in June.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">JP Morgan reports funds managers&rsquo; skew towards healthcare stocks has reached the highest positive level in the history of its survey.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Equally noteworthy is that more and more institutional portfolios have been adding banks to their top ten positions, while reducing exposure to &ldquo;Materials&rdquo; (essentially miners and energy producers).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">To read more about the raging debate about what to expect from CSL this month:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2020\/07\/16\/rudis-view-whats-wrong-with-csl\/\"><span style=\"color:#12417F\">https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2020\/07\/16\/rudis-view-whats-wrong-with-csl\/<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">You wouldn&rsquo;t pick it from the outside, but&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Australian telcos<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;could potentially turn into one of few stand-out performers this August reporting season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Analysts at Goldman Sachs point out all major telcos have reiterated guidance for FY20, and thus investor focus will zoom in on what each company is willing to share about the outlook for FY21.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Goldman Sachs thinks every telco under coverage will provide guidance, which will be unique this season, albeit with the added understanding that some companies might prefer to issue a rather broad range.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Irrespective, if Goldman Sachs&rsquo; assessment is correct, telecommunication might be vying for top sector spot in terms of reliability and accountability this month.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The broker&rsquo;s top three favourites ahead of the season are (in order of preference) Telstra ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TLS<\/span>)), NextDC ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NXT<\/span>)), and Vocus Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">VOC<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Telstra is expected to attract additional interest on confirmation of dividend sustainability.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Sector analysts at Morgan Stanley agree with the general sentiment, but they also see potential friction for the industry because the combined TPG\/Vodafone ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TPG<\/span>)) is ambitious enough to disturb the relative peace from the past twelve months.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In contrast with the above, analysts at Credit Suisse suspect&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">diversified financials<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;might be one of the disappointment hot spots this month.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">All of Challenger ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CGF<\/span>)), Computershare, ASX ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ASX<\/span>)) and Hub24 ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">HUB<\/span>)) have received one big question mark to their name and Credit Suisse sees risks as firmly to the downside.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Only one sector constituent continues to offer scope for upside surprise, Credit Suisse believes, and that one stand-out name is, of course, Magellan Financial Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MFG<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The analysts are anticipating positive commentary on new product launches, as well as regarding the fresh investment banking startup, Blackwattle.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">All other non-bank financials ex-insurers are trading amidst neutral to mixed operational conditions, and Credit Suisse cannot muster the slightest hint of excitement.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Plenty of analysts elsewhere who&rsquo;d find Credit Suisse&rsquo;s neutral view on the likes of Platinum Asset Management ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PTM<\/span>)), IOOF Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IFL<\/span>)) and Link Administration ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LNK<\/span>)) potentially too rosy.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Another sector under immense pressure is media, in particular those business models depending on revenues from advertising, which also includes outdoor advertising facilitators.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Cyclical earnings risk galore is probably the appropriate label to use here. Morgan Stanley sees only one winner (or should that be: survivor?) among traditional media players, and that&rsquo;s Nine Entertainment ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NEC<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">While valuations for online media and modern-day tech companies are back near all-time highs, the debates amongst analysts and investors continues to rage, and to divide, whether current multiples are outrageous or fully justified.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Aristocrat Leisure ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ALL<\/span>)) remains Morgan Stanley&rsquo;s gaming &amp; casino sector favourite and that&rsquo;s partially because of the growth potential from online gaming.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">August 2020 will mark&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">a sharp divide for the mining sector<\/span><\/strong>, explain commodity analysts at Credit Suisse.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In particular coal producers are struggling with a persistently tough environment. The analysts have removed all estimates for any form of dividend payments to shareholders.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">For others, including Alumina Ltd ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AWC<\/span>)) and Iluka Resources ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ILU<\/span>)) Credit Suisse has adopted cautious forecasts of US2c and AU4c respectively while BHP Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BHP<\/span>)), irrespective of no positive surprise from Rio Tinto&rsquo;s ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RIO<\/span>)) interim result, has the capacity to do better than cautious market expectations.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It&rsquo;s all about the price of iron ore remaining above US$100\/tonne, and this is the reason why Fortescue Metals ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FMG<\/span>)) could pay out more than expected as well.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">For now, the analysts have penciled in AU77c for Fortescue Metals shareholders and US43c for BHP shareholders, but both estimates could be proven conservative.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Capital management<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&nbsp;will be greatly welcomed amidst extreme uncertainty, and one of the companies often mentioned in this regard is Aurizon Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AZJ<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The company bought back $400m worth of its own shares in FY20. More is expected in the year ahead.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In contrast, Brambles ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BXB<\/span>)) has only bought circa 25% of its announced $240m on market share buyback.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Analysts are worrying the new dividend policy might result in a disappointing outcome for shareholders.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">All of the above, and much more, shall be dismissed or confirmed over the weeks ahead.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Coming Soon: The August Reporting Season<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On many accounts, the August reporting season about to be unleashed upon investors in Australia will mark a new low post-GFC, which ended 11 years ago.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This does not by default imply the Australian share market is ready for a big sell-off in the weeks to come.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Investors are being reminded markets do not compare in absolute numbers or values. It&rsquo;s all about matching what is forecast, what is priced in and what can ultimately be achieved.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Reporting seasons are mostly about changes to forecasts (and perceptions) rather than what companies have achieved.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Within this framework it remains an open question as to what conclusions exactly can be drawn from company financials and updates when macro developments remain all-important, and unpredictability of events and outcomes high.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">We are less than 3.5 months away from the US presidential election, to name but one of the obvious obstacles to make far reaching predictions with any sense of conviction.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Companies will be reluctant to provide concrete guidance, but those who can\/do will be rewarded for it.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Analysis of the five months since the pandemic spread teaches us that concrete guidance will be rewarded with share price outperformance.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Makes a lot of sense, if you think about it, as long as that guidance doesn&rsquo;t need to be withdrawn later.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Bad news is not necessarily the equivalent of a fatal blow, as also shown by energy producers and shopping mall owners pre-season. Large write-downs of assets had investors merely shrugging their shoulders: tell us something new!<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">We saw those write-downs coming from many miles away.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Investors are definitely looking forward, in many cases to FY22 which is not one but two years away, which means high tolerance for bad news in the short term, as long as it doesn&rsquo;t impact on FY22 estimates and derived valuations.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">(This also shows, once again, why the macro picture remains the all-important denominator).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">There is some anticipation that boards and management teams will grab the opportunity to clean balance sheets and get rid of a lot more baggage than otherwise would have been the case.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Again, this means: even more bad news will be thrown into the open.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Earnings estimates, on average, have been reduced by -15% and dividend cuts will be larger still, double the cuts in profits on some forecasts, which will make 2020 the worst year for income seekers in a long while.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Equally noteworthy: most forecasts assume no growth, on average, in FY21. A lot of weight is thus placed on recovery prospects by FY22.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Wat sets this year apart from past references is that the global pandemic created beneficiaries in the form of medical tests, ventilators, sanitisers, home entertainment and online shopping.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">There were no obvious beneficiaries around when the Nasdaq bubble burst or when Lehman Bros went bankrupt.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Hence, more so than ever, this year&rsquo;s August reporting season comes at a time of extreme share market divergence &ndash; winners versus losers.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Whereas the losers might be enticed to spill the beans, throw out the kitchen sink, clean all the cupboards and create a springboard for future recovery and growth, no such leniency will be granted to companies whose share prices are trading near the all-time high.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Assessments will be made on a case-by-case basis.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">None of this means losers won&rsquo;t be punished or winners cannot positively surprise. If past reporting seasons can be our guide, day-to-day volatility might spike a few extra notches.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">There is always room for disappointment and surprise.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Potential strong performances will be delivered by producers of iron ore and retailers enjoying the spoils from government stimulus programs JobKeeper and JobSeeker. In both cases investors will be wondering: how sustainable is this?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Dividends from mining companies are expected to make up one third of total payouts, also because banks probably won&rsquo;t be paying anything.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Some analysts are forecasting a big revival for banking profits in 2021. Some are forecasting a large fall in profits for mining companies next year.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">These questions will not be resolved in August.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Sectors that on current forecasts are looking towards two subsequent years of pain are transport, insurance, diversified financials, and infrastructure.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Cash flows and balance sheets will be in constant focus, as will be &ldquo;dividend certainty&rdquo;.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">More write-downs and revaluations are expected, as well as additional capital raisings.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Meanwhile, it&rsquo;s probably still OK to talk about consensus forecasts and average reductions, but underneath the bonnet the divergences are as wide as during the GFC &ndash; expect large resets either way.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Some analysts are grabbing the opportunity and reiterating their conviction in forecasts that are well out of synch with consensus.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Wilsons, on Tuesday, nominated ARB Corp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ARB<\/span>)), a2 Milk ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">A2M<\/span>)), Nick Scali ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NCK<\/span>)), SomnoMed ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SOM<\/span>)), Bravura Solutions ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BVS<\/span>)), NRW Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NWH<\/span>)), and Perenti Global ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PRN<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Other companies for which simply achieving guidance would imply a significant upward adjustment for market consensus include AMA Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMA<\/span>)), AP Eagers ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APE<\/span>)), Costa Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CGC<\/span>)), Whitehaven Coal ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WHC<\/span>)), New Hope Corp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NHC<\/span>)) and Monadelphous ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MND<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Wilsons sees downside risk for GUD Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GUD<\/span>)), Ramsay Health Care ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RHC<\/span>)) and Nanosonics ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NAN<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Goldman Sachs likes QBE Insurance ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">QBE<\/span>)), Suncorp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SUN<\/span>)), Computershare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CPU<\/span>)), Pendal Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PDL<\/span>)) among non-bank financials, while investors are advised to sell ASX ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ASX<\/span>)), Platinum Asset Management ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PTM<\/span>)) and Medibank Private ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MPL<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Stockbroker Morgans believes domestic cyclicals need to deliver better-than-expected results plus confirmation of an improving outlook for the ASX200 to be able to break out of its current narrow range.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Tech stocks may find beating forecasts is difficult given high expectations, but resources companies, in particular those exposed to iron ore and copper, might be able to surprise both on profits and dividends.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Candidates for a potential positive surprise include a2 Milk, AP Eagers, AGL Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AGL<\/span>)), Superloop ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SLC<\/span>)), Afterpay, Amcor ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMC<\/span>)), and Domino&rsquo;s Pizza ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">DMP<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Morgans sees Telstra ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TLS<\/span>)) potentially surprising through capital management.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Nominated for possible disappointment are Ramsay Health Care ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RHC<\/span>)), Link Administration ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LNK<\/span>)), Orora ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ORA<\/span>)), Qube Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">QUB<\/span>)), Coca-Cola Amatil ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CCL<\/span>)), and Woodside Petroleum ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WPL<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Morgans also suggests both CSL ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CSL<\/span>)) and Cochlear ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">COH<\/span>)) look vulnerable for a valuation de-rating.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Finally, while expectations are low -admittedly for good reason- average valuations look sky-high, which usually provides the ideal scenario for lots of volatility to kick in.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">I wrote a story earlier in the month why valuations are probably not as much out of order as many are arguing, see further below.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">I leave the closing statement to Morgan Stanley:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&ldquo;<em><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Despite investor feedback that earnings &#039;don&rsquo;t matter&#039; amid the Covid-19 crisis, we think FY20 earnings&nbsp;<u>are<\/u>&nbsp;important. In a world where guidance has been withdrawn, earnings estimates are stale and earnings dispersion is very wide, the looming refresh will provide much-needed context and depth to what have typically been updates that have been narrow in focus and scant on detail. Cash flows, margins, capex and balance sheets can now come back to base<\/span><\/em>.&rdquo;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><u>ON THE FEBRUARY REPORTING SEASON:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>****<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">February Reports: The Green Divide Is Real<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">What a difference six months&nbsp;makes in the share market. It&#039;s still early days for the local corporate results season in Australia but a number of positive trends are vindicating the strong buying that supported equities in January:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-companies are finding it easier to meet or beat market expectations;<br \/>-earnings estimates last week made a trend change and are now rising instead of falling.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Of course, the cynics among us can counter-argue that market expectations leading into the February reporting season were rather low. This is true, but the same observation applied to the August season last year, and that turned out the worst reporting season post-GFC for corporate Australia.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Bottom line: things are improving, without getting too carried away, also helped by the fact investors are willing to take a supportive view, as long as the financial performance doesn&#039;t fall too much behind what should reasonably be expected.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">One prominent victim this month appear to be speculators with short positions. Sharp rallies in share prices of companies including Breville Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BRG<\/span>)), JB Hi-Fi ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JBH<\/span>)) and Carsales ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CAR<\/span>)), often well beyond upgraded valuations and price targets post the event, suggests&nbsp;shorters scrambling to reduce their losses has been one of the key characteristics during the opening two weeks of this reporting season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">When speculators take a short position on a stock, they are relying on future disappointment to depress the share price to their benefit. If, however, the share price rallies instead, it might open up the prospect for sizable losses, and thus those with a short position can turn into desperate buyers at all cost instead.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The Early Numbers<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Early winners this season include Mineral Resources ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MIN<\/span>)), IDP Education ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IEL<\/span>)), Nick Scali ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NCK<\/span>)), IPH Ltd ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IPH<\/span>)), Challenger ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CGF<\/span>)), the aforementioned Breville Group, JB Hi-Fi and Carsales, Magellan Financial ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MFG<\/span>)), Pinnacle Investment ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PNI<\/span>)), ResMed ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RMD<\/span>)), Goodman Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GMG<\/span>)), CommBank ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CBA<\/span>)) and, yet again, CSL ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CSL<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Amongst the early losers we can count Blackmores ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BKL<\/span>)), Synlait Milk ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SM1<\/span>)), Insurance Australia Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IAG<\/span>)), Suncorp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SUN<\/span>)), Orora ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ORA<\/span>)), Downer EDI ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">DOW<\/span>)), IGO ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IGO<\/span>)), and Treasury Wine Estates ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TWE<\/span>)), Cimic Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CIM<\/span>)), and Nearmap ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NEA<\/span>)) from the pre-season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Multiple retailers and consumer-exposed stocks have surprised to the upside. So far, the report card for resources stocks and sector contractors has been rather mixed. Sector analysts at Bell Potter point out Decmil Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">DCG<\/span>)) also issued a profit warning pre-season, alongside Downer EDI and Cimic Group.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Don&#039;t be surprised to see more of the same from other peers this month, is their warning. Bell Potter agrees with analysts elsewhere the underlying trend is improving for the sector, on the back of increased spending by bulk miners and the energy sector, but short term plenty of potential exists for cost overruns on projects that were won through aggressive bidding over the past 12-24 months.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Bell Potter&#039;s three sector favourites are Monadelphous ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MND<\/span>)), Lycopodium ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LYL<\/span>)), and Service Stream ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SSM<\/span>)). The latter has already reported, and avoided both disappointment and project mishaps.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As can be read from FNArena&#039;s Corporate Results Monitor on Monday,&nbsp;37.3% of corporate results (25) thus far has beaten expectations against 19.4% of released reports (13) that can be categorised as a clear &quot;miss&quot;. This means more than 80% of the 67 reports recorded thus far has either met or bettered analysts&#039; forecasts.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">FNArena&#039;s Corporate Results Monitor:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/reporting_season\/\"><span style=\"color:#12417F\">https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/reporting_season\/<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Two more important observations to point out are:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-the numbers look notably less attractive for Australia&#039;s large cap stocks. Scroll down when visiting FNArena&#039;s Monitor and you&#039;ll find the numbers for the ASX50 are 6 &quot;beats&quot; versus 5 &quot;misses&quot;; for the ASX200 this becomes 17 &quot;beats&quot; versus 11 &quot;misses&quot;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-hiding underneath these early statistics is the fact that when it comes to quality and pace of growth, leading international players are still outperforming domestically oriented peers, and this is again translating into &quot;Quality&quot; and &quot;Growth&quot; shares outperforming &quot;Value&quot; during the opening seven weeks of calendar 2020.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">To put this in another way: companies whose share price has been carried by positive momentum pre-February have tended to release&nbsp;performances that are good enough to allow that positive momentum to continue. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have calculated the relative outperformance of such positive momentum stocks, no doubt including ResMed, CSL, Goodman Group and the likes, has risen to 15% since January 1st versus the value-laggards in the Australian share market.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Life is tough for investors who&nbsp;preferred the likes of &quot;undervalued&quot; Flight Centre ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FLT<\/span>)), FlexiGroup ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FXL<\/span>)) and Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">URW<\/span>)) over, say, ResMed, CSL and Goodman Group. Even as many among the laggard stocks spike higher this season, including GUD Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GUD<\/span>)), Bapcor ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BAP<\/span>)), Pinnacle Investment, and the aforementioned selected retailers.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Clearly, expectations that a bounce in property&nbsp;prices across the main cities of Australia will have a positive impact on household spending have been proven correct. Though the jury is still out whether building materials and construction companies will become major beneficiaries too.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Meanwhile, the precise impact from the coronavirus on China and the rest of the world remains anyone&#039;s guess.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">A few extra statistics from the equities desk at Goldman Sachs:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-the average stock post&nbsp;results release has outperformed the market by 1.5%<br \/>-companies that&nbsp;beat expectations saw their share price outperforming by 4.4% on average<br \/>-companies that missed expectations still saw their share price&nbsp;on average performing in-line with the broader market<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In my preview ahead of the February reporting season, I suggested investors seemed prepared to wear rose-tinted glasses this season, and that last observation made by Goldman Sachs supports this view.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Sustainability No Longer A Phantom In Australia<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Some investment experts have declared ESG investing &ndash;rules based on Environmental, Social and Governance principles&ndash; a defining new feature for the decade ahead, meaning investors are no longer in a position in which they can ignore these additional filters when making investment decisions, including in Australia.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Share market analysts at Morgan Stanley, for example, are predicting ESG is likely to grow into a secular, multi-year theme, comparable to TMT (telephony, media and technology) in the late nineties and FAANG in recent years (and&nbsp;the BRIC countries in between).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If correct, and taking guidance from past experiences, this implies this new emerging theme is still in its infancy and has many more years to develop. Morgan Stanley suggests these themes outperform for circa five years, while suggesting ESG as a defined share market theme is probably only 6-9 months old.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">ESG started as predominantly a European phenomenon, but observers of US share markets have&nbsp;more recently witnessed&nbsp;it traveling across the Atlantic Ocean.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It would seem decarbonisation is the main focus for early ESG adopters, which benefits utilities in particular. No surprise thus quant analysts offshore have been observing a positive correlation between share prices in utilities and Quality and Growth stocks positively re-rating&nbsp;and trending upwards.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Conversely, increased attention for decarbonisation should negatively impact on fund flows into the energy sector.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On Morgan Stanley&#039;s assessment, positive re-ratings for European stocks including Alstom, Covestro, Kingspan, Neste and German utility RWE are at least partially driven by ESG and decarbonisation. They see similar observations emerging in US markets. Taking a positive view, the analysts suspect ESG Leaders might close the relative valuation gap with Quality and Growth in the years ahead.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In Australia, the &#039;Green&#039; theme hasn&#039;t attracted much attention as yet, but I suspect this is because&nbsp;its impact mostly occurs through share prices unable to rally. In other words: to date ESG mostly impacts through what we don&#039;t see when we look at&nbsp;share prices; the likelihood that prices would have rallied higher and for longer under different circumstances.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">For those who know what to look out for, ESG and decarbonisation are undeniably making their presence felt this reporting season in Australia. Below are some examples from the early wave of corporate reports:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&ndash;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Amcor<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMC<\/span>)) &ndash; At face value, management at one of the world&#039;s leading packaging companies did many things investors usually like. The financial performance for the six months to December was not too far off from expectations and that large Bemis acquisition is being integrated smoothly, with more synergies to be achieved in the short term.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Management&nbsp;created for itself the opportunity to increase EPS growth guidance for FY20 to 7-10%. But the share price has moved lower since the release of interim financials, despite the fact the consensus price target post the event has lifted higher.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Hidden inside the finer details is downward pressure on rigid packaging with analysts now questioning whether demand for bottled water is coming under pressure across the globe. A move by Swiss consumer products giant Nestle to provide less details about its bottled water sales going forward seems to point in this direction.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Prior to last week&#039;s report, Amcor&#039;s share price had returned to where it was&nbsp;mid last year, after which global concerns about the future of plastic packaging weighed on the share price. It is possible this is more of a sentiment-related barrier, for now, with analysts covering the company convinced Amcor remains at the forefront of this industry&#039;s transition into a more sustainable modus operandi, but absolute certainty is not included.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Amcor has developed AmLite, which is being marketed as a &quot;unique line of metal-free high barrier packaging that is recycable in markets where recycling streams exist&quot;. Critics counter-argue that while technically the 100% recyclability might be possible, it might take a long while yet until it is economically feasible.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It is a genuine possibility that Amcor shares, down less than -2% since the start of the year when the broader market has gained circa 6.5%, will continue to play catch up for longer while investors mull over a number of existential, longer-dated questions. In the meantime, the shares are offering 4.9% in prospective yield, on FY21 forecasts.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&ndash;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Boral<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BLD<\/span>)) &ndash; No doubt already one of the big disappointments this reporting season. Don&#039;t look, but Boral shares were trading at $7.74 two years ago, in January 2018. To say&nbsp;the acquisition of US-based Headwaters has cost shareholders dearly is quite the understatement.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Apart from fraud and accountancy irregularities, Headwaters also catapulted Boral into the North-American fly ash market, which looked interesting and potentially attractive at the time the acquisition was first announced. It has since dawned upon investors that coal fired power stations are in decline in the US, and this means management at Boral might have to revisit the numbers and projections for their North-American operation.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Fly ash is a by-product from the burning of coal used for its cementitious properties. Less burning of coal means less fly ash byproduct will be available in the future.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Without wanting to sound too dramatic about it, but could it be possible that Boral&#039;s acquisition of Headwaters might join the likes of Riversdale Mining by Rio Tinto in 2011 or CSR&#039;s ill-fated acquisitions of Pilkington and DMS glass businesses in 2007 and 2008? Both expansions cost shareholders dearly in the subsequent years.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">According to the US EIA, US coal power generation declined -15% in 2019. A further -9% decline is expected for 2020.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&ndash;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Bapcor<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BAP<\/span>)) &ndash; The Bapcor&nbsp;logistics network of delivering car parts, predominantly to mechanics, has proved itself as one of the most resilient businesses listed on the ASX. Last week&#039;s interim report simply revealed more of the same. But that initial share price rally didn&#039;t last long, though the shares are still trading at a higher level than immediately prior to the results release.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">A bit disappointing, really, considering analysts&#039; targeted valuations are, without exception, all double digit percentages above today&#039;s share price.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">I suspect, what is holding back the Bapcor share price is the persistent negative trend in new car sales, not just in Australia (22 consecutive months of negative sales growth) but across the globe. Businesses and consumers are increasingly preferring electric vehicles, though no accurate data are available in Australia. Apparently, Tesla, which is the market leader in this emerging new segment, does not share any sales data locally.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The big question on investors&#039; mind is: how is this transition to electric vehicles going to impact on Bapcor&#039;s business and resilience post the medium term? In the meantime, management is adding an additional avenue of growth through accelerated investment in Taiwan.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Incidentally, a noticeable gap has opened up between how local insurers Suncorp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SUN<\/span>)) and Insurance Australia Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IAG<\/span>)) view the emergence of autonomous vehicles. Suncorp thinks the speed of adoption is likely to surprise many in the decade ahead. IAG on the other hand, sees plenty of obstacles through legislation and infrastructure, to support its own view this transition will be rather slow and gradual.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Both insurers, of course, will be&nbsp;struggling to maintain business as usual if the recent bushfires on Australia&#039;s east coast are to become more of a regular feature in the decade ahead, alongside extreme temperatures&nbsp;and weather-related events in either direction.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Some other snippets with less direct impact in the short term:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&ndash;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">AGL Energy<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AGL<\/span>)) reported insurance costs for coal assets continue to rise, also because such power stations seem to have more outages;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&ndash;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Aurizon Holdings<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AZJ<\/span>)), which derives some 40% of annual revenues from hauling thermal coal,&nbsp;has $525m worth of corporate bonds expiring in October. With&nbsp;lenders to its major coal customers facing heightened pressure to ditch thermal coal investments, investors&#039; attention will be focused on how Aurizon&#039;s debt refinancing might proceed;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">-As more companies globally are joining the goal to be carbon neutral, if not negative, by 2050, companies are rethinking travel plans for their C-suite and staff members. A recent executives survey by Credit Suisse revealed 63% of respondents are prepared to limit travels in order to achieve a more sustainable outcome.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Lastly, while positive beneficiaries from the increased focus on ESG, decarbonisation and sustainability mostly involves micro cap stocks on the Australian stock exchange, it should not be forgotten&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Macquarie Group&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong>((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MQG<\/span>)) is one of the world&#039;s leading investors in the green theme.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Ahead of the curve, as always.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">FNArena has been running a dedicated ESG news section since late 2018:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/financial-news\/daily-financial-news\/category\/esg-focus\/\"><span style=\"color:#12417F\">https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/financial-news\/daily-financial-news\/category\/esg-focus\/<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">February Reports: Equity Favourites And Warnings<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Paying attention to stockbroking analysts announcing their Conviction Buys and Sells can be highly beneficial to one&#039;s investment portfolio, as no doubt experienced by many an FNArena subscriber.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Over the past two years in particular, I have&nbsp;methodically kept track of Conviction Calls in the market, and those have included ResMed, Magellan Financial Group, IDP Education, Cochlear, Goodman Group, Appen, EML Payments and various other high flyers.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Every now and then these Conviction Calls generate an absolute blooper; the stinker that leaves a bad taste that simply won&#039;t go away. Boral and Challenger Financial come to mind, as well as EclipX Group and G8 Education.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In January we had the profit warning from&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Treasury Wine Estates<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TWE<\/span>)) which, on one hand, vindicated the persistent Sell rating maintained by analysts at Citi, irrespective of their peers releasing more bullish assessments.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On the other hand, the Buy ratings that stood out prominently in December and early January subsequently led to four downgrades to Neutral while for Citi it&nbsp;was time to upgrade to Neutral, as the share price tanked.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">One team of analysts that hasn&#039;t budget post profit warning and quite the significant de-rating for the stock is the team at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">CLSA<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The analysts were left licking their wounds, but subsequently stated they had been negative on the US market anyway. It&#039;s the company&#039;s growth prospect in China that keeps optimism alive, and CLSA&#039;s rating on Buy.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Analysts Richard Barwick and Deija Li cannot believe how &quot;cheap&quot; the share price looks today (it has been falling on most days since the day of warning).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">But even they have to acknowledge, Treasury Wine has now de facto become&nbsp;a long-term story. Short term, there are a number of investors out there who lost a lot of money, and they&#039;d be vying for blood &amp; revenge. Don&#039;t be surprised if Treasury Wine remains in the naughty corner for quite a while.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In the meantime, there are no guarantees the bad news flow won&#039;t continue for longer.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On my own observations, and I have some incomplete data&nbsp;to support this statement, most declared Conviction Calls perform better than the market average, which is why I thought it apposite to share the various favourites and Hot Stocks that have been picked ahead of the February reporting season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The obvious comment to make is that sudden warnings, like the one issued by Treasury Wine, if such event were to occur, can change a stock&#039;s trajectory dramatically. The same goes for share price movement and the profit report release itself this month.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Diversified financials<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&nbsp;are expected to release weak results this month, potentially with the exception of Magellan Financial. Analysts at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Credit Suisse<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;see potential for negative surprises and have lined up Challenger Financial ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CGF<\/span>)), Netwealth ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NWL<\/span>)), Perpetual ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PPT<\/span>)), Hub24 ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">HUB<\/span>)), and Link Administration ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LNK<\/span>)) as stocks carrying additional negative potential.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Noteworthy: outside of Magellan, no other stock in this sector is seen as a potential upside surprise.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Credit Suisse finds more hope could be emerging from the insurance sector where even AMP ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMP<\/span>)) is seen as a stock that might have upside on a not-as-bad-as-feared results release, accompanied by some clarification from management around customer remediation.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">QBE Insurance ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">QBE<\/span>)), AUB Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AUB<\/span>)) and Steadfast Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SDF<\/span>)) are equally believed to carry upside surprise potential. The odds seem less favourable for the likes of Suncorp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SUN<\/span>)), Insurance Australia Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IAG<\/span>)), Medibank Private ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MPL<\/span>)) and nib Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NHF<\/span>)), at least&nbsp;if Credit Suisse&#039;s pre-release assessments prove accurate.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Stockbroker&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Morgans&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong>is concerned elevated share prices might not necessarily be followed up with robust looking earnings results this month.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On its assessment, the best looking tactical buys this season -stocks whose share price looks poised to react positively to the release of results- include&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">BHP Group<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BHP<\/span>)),&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Rio Tinto<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RIO<\/span>)),&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Telstra<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TLS<\/span>)),&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Aurizon Holdings<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AZJ<\/span>)), and&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Baby Bunting<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BBN<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Stocks that are expensively priced and probably due for disappointment, according to Morgans,&nbsp;include Wesfarmers ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WES<\/span>)), AGL Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AGL<\/span>)) and Qube Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">QUB<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Morgans has also pinpointed some potential recovery stories through Ansell ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ANN<\/span>)), Amcor ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMC<\/span>)), Santos ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">STO<\/span>)), and Woodside Petroleum ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WPL<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Other candidates for earnings upside risk are Australian Finance Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AFG<\/span>)), Infigen Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IFN<\/span>)), and Adairs ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ADH<\/span>)) while yet others seem poised for a better-than-priced-in outlook guidance, including Afterpay ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APT<\/span>)), Generation Development ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GDG<\/span>)), IDP Education ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IEL<\/span>)), Mainstream Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MAI<\/span>)), Pro Medicus ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PME<\/span>)), and Megaport ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MP1<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">JPMorgan<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">&#039;s key picks among small industrials are cloud services provider&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Rhipe<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RHP<\/span>)) for positive news (Top Pick) and debt collector&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Collection House<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CLH<\/span>)) with a negative outlook (Bottom Pick).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Analysts at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Wilsons<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;updated their Conviction Insights, revealing two new additions and two removals.&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Nuchev<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NUC<\/span>)) and&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Telix Pharmaceuticals<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TLX<\/span>)) are now in, while National Veterinary Care ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NVL<\/span>)) and Ridley Corp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RIC<\/span>)) are out.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Other stocks on the list are Bravura Solutions ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BVS<\/span>)), EML Payments ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">EML<\/span>)), ReadyTech ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RDY<\/span>)), Whispir ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WSP<\/span>)), ARB Corp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ARB<\/span>)), ImpediMed ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IPD<\/span>)), Countplus ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CUP<\/span>)), EQT Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">EQT<\/span>)), Pinnacle Investment ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PNI<\/span>)), Mosaic Brands ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MOZ<\/span>)), Mastermyne ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MYE<\/span>)), Perenti Global ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PRN<\/span>)), and Whitehaven Coal ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WHC<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Market strategists at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Morgan Stanley<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;are equally worried about the ever-widening gap between share price valuations and reported earnings in Australia.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It is their view that overall conditions for corporate Australia are not that flash, highlighting the need for more broader stimulus. But will the RBA and the Australian government hear the message?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Changes made to Morgan Stanley&#039;s Model Portfolio include removing Insurance Australia Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IAG<\/span>)), Coles Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">COL<\/span>)), South32 ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">S32<\/span>)), Viva Energy Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">VEA<\/span>)), and Charter Hall ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CHC<\/span>)) while instead buying&nbsp;shares in&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Janus Henderson<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JHG<\/span>)),&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Sandfire Resources<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SFR<\/span>)),&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Karoon Energy<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">KAR<\/span>)), and<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">&nbsp;Wesfarmers<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Also, the Model Portfolio has again moved&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">underweight the banks<\/span><\/strong>, while opting for&nbsp;more concentrated sector allocations, to reduce overall risk.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Strategists at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Macquarie<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;suggest investors should not be deterred from growth-leveraged companies with the coronavirus temporarily putting a dent into the global recovery story, but it&#039;s only a delay, in their view. The Chinese economy will be supported by further stimulus, while the US economy is anticipated to continue its recovery.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Post coronavirus, Macquarie sees bond yields ticking higher, which will reduce the attractiveness of defensives and yield proxies in the share market.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">To gain from the immediate coronavirus impact, Macquarie suggests investors should buy into falling share prices of&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">a2 Milk&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong>((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">A2M<\/span>)),&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">BHP Group<\/span><\/strong>, and&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Fortescue Metals<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FMG<\/span>)). All three are rated Outperform and included in the broker&#039;s Model Portfolio.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Other companies facing headwinds from the coronavirus, and likely candidates to bounce back later in the year, include Star Entertainment ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SGR<\/span>)) and Flight Centre ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FLT<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Macquarie&#039;s view is certainly not widely dismissed elsewhere, but investors might also pay attention to the latest research effort put in by analysts at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Citi<\/span><\/strong>. On their account, short-term headwinds are building in China, and they have not as yet been priced into global commodity markets.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Citi&nbsp;sees iron trade trading down to US$70\/tonne, copper to US$5300\/tonne, palladium to US$2100\/oz and Brent crude oil to US$47\/bbl in the near term.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Citi&#039;s analysis has revealed the seven worst impacted provinces&nbsp;from the coronavirus in China account for 35%-40% of Chinese GDP, automotive output, property new starts, and in excess of 70% of air conditioner&nbsp;output.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The same regions only contribute 7%-26% of Chinese metals production, with exceptions of copper smelting at 45% and lead at 70%.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The Large Cap Portfolio at&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Shaw and Partners<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;managed to keep pace with the fast running Australian share market in 2019, but since the coronavirus caught the world&#039;s attention, the headwinds have been quite tangible.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In response, the portfolio has moved&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Overweight local banks<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;while abandoning REITs that are not covered by analysts in-house.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Shaw and Partners too believes any impact from the virus will prove temporary.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The portfolio has doubled down on&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Flight Centre<\/span><\/strong>, while increasing exposure to&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Macquarie Group<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MQG<\/span>)),&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">South32<\/span><\/strong>, and&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Goodman Group<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GMG<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Potentially the most cautious ahead of the bulk of corporate results is&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Baillieu<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;chief investment officer Malcolm Wood, who clearly believes the RBA et al are way too optimistic and the situation on the ground for the bulk of Australian companies looks a lot less promising.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The Baillieu strategist thinks market consensus is&nbsp;too optimistic. Top line growth will remain sluggish this season, Wood predicts, with companies about to reveal a lack of pricing power. Most companies have been enjoying some easing of raw material cost pressures, but forward guidances are likely to remain cautious, on his assessment.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">What this translates to is an over-priced share market that thus becomes extremely vulnerable to any piece of negative news. Contrary to general optimism elsewhere, Wood sees earnings estimates trending lower throughout February, with companies in particular in consumer, financial, utilities and domestic facing industrials and healthcare sectors believed to be vulnerable.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">To support his scepticism, Wood has kept track of local profit warnings since October last year. His line up contains&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">65 &quot;significant profit warnings&quot;&nbsp;offset by 16 upgrades<\/span><\/strong>. While the profit warnings have been broad based, positive warnings have come from global leaders and high-growth emerging companies.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In what may surprise investors, the Materials sector has issued most of the negative warnings with Incitec Pivot, Syrah Resources, Nufarm, Boral, Perenti Global and peers&nbsp;pulling back market expectations on the back of disappointing operational performances.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Financials are the next three market segments co-responsible for the bulk of negative warnings, led by the likes of Cleanaway Waste Management, MaxiTrans and Prospa Group, Jumbo Interactive, G8 Education&nbsp;and Kogan, and FlexiGroup, IOOF Holdings&nbsp;and Medibank Private.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Even the healthcare sector delivered its fair share. Outside the international market leaders (of course), but through Monash IVF, Mayne Pharma, Estia &nbsp;Health, Healius, Regis Healthcare, and Australian Pharmaceutical.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The sixteen companies having issued &quot;significant upgrades&quot; over the period are Bapcor ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BAP<\/span>)), oOh!media ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">OML<\/span>)), a2 Milk, ResMed ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RMD<\/span>)), Sigma Healthcare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SIG<\/span>)), James Hardie ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JHX<\/span>)), Amcor, Genworth&nbsp;Mortgage Insurance Australia ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GMA<\/span>)), Macquarie Group, Emeco&nbsp;Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">EHL<\/span>)), John Lyng Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JLG<\/span>)), Afterpay, Bingo Industries ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BIN<\/span>)), Appen ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APX<\/span>)), Fortescue Metals, and Charter Hall.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">FNArena monitors corporate results the whole year around. Currently we are keeping track of February results releases. Paying subscribers to the service also have access to detailed reports for past seasons going back to August 2013. Make sure you check it out regularly:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/reporting_season\/\"><span style=\"color:#12417F\">https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/reporting_season\/<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Four Tips For Reporting Season<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Continuing from our reporting season cooperation in recent years, FNArena&nbsp;is sharing insights from this year&#039;s February with readers and subscribers at&nbsp;Livewire Markets.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This year the cooperation includes an interview with yours truly, having been titled &quot;Rudi&#039;s four tips for reporting season success&quot;.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">A written summary of the interview can be accessed here, alongside the video:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livewiremarkets.com\/wires\/rudi-s-four-tips-for-reporting-season-success?\"><span style=\"color:#12417F\">https:\/\/www.livewiremarkets.com\/wires\/rudi-s-four-tips-for-reporting-season-success?<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The video is also accessible via YouTube:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\"><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/5QvL9GSGM2g\"><span style=\"color:#12417F\">https:\/\/youtu.be\/5QvL9GSGM2g<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">February Reports: Optimism Is Back<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If Mr Market were a person of flesh and blood, he\/she would have returned from the December holiday with a joyful spring in the step.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Expectations are&nbsp;2020 will be a better year for global economic growth and for corporate profits after both trended down throughout calendar year 2019.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Extremely loose policies by&nbsp;central banks, including in Australia, the US and China, plus a reduction in geopolitical tension have laid the groundwork for a recovery later into 2020, so goes the narrative, and early economic signals are providing the necessary support for it.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This easily explains the unusual exuberance during the first weeks of January this year, until an unexpected coronavirus outbreak in China caused a pause in the uptrend.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Given the apparent validity behind this new narrative, and investors&#039; willingness to get set six to nine months ahead, it seems unlikely the latest virus scare can fully derail the share market&#039;s newfound optimism. But investors will still be looking for as much confirmation as they can get along the way.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This is where the February reporting season fits in perfectly. Times have been tough for many a domestic-oriented retailer or cyclical company. Share prices are up (for most). Now investors want to receive some comfort from businesses their money is parked with the right people.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This set-up makes some experts uncomfortable, fearing too many businesses won&#039;t be able to deliver.&nbsp;And broad indices have only just touched at new all-time record highs. However, reading through copious amounts of previews and updates on ASX-listed corporates, I&nbsp;sense a general preparedness to look beyond the occasional niggle and short-term challenge.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Investor responses to early financial report releases have been encouraging: it&#039;s not the tangible evidence of the big turnaround we are all looking out for; we simply want enough comfort that things are starting to look up, and that management will be able to deliver.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">An early update delivered by car parts manufacturer GUD Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GUD<\/span>)) looks highly encouraging, indeed. Strictly taken, the six-monthly financial performance missed analysts&#039; expectations, but management was able to provide enough assurance that things are improving, and the next six months should make up for the initial &quot;miss&quot;.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">GUD Holdings shares have risen every day since reporting on February 2. Even though earnings forecasts have fallen slightly, the consensus target price has lifted to $11.95 from $10.72 on the day of reporting. Prior to that day, the shares had already recovered some 40% from the low point in August last year.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If the experience of GUD Holdings can be extrapolated over the remainder of February, the Australian share market is in for a treat, with plenty of positive vibes looking promising for the laggards in the market, those stocks the professionals like to label as &quot;value stocks&quot;.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This by no means implies highly valued growth stocks automatically fall out of favour. The performance bar might be&nbsp;a tad higher, but that hasn&#039;t stopped many a structural growth performer from reaching fresh all-time highs. ResMed ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RMD<\/span>)) is traditionally among the early reporters in Australia and its financial update was, yet again, better-than-expected. No reason to start worrying&nbsp;here.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The Big Dip Lays Behind Us<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">To understand the comfortable optimism with which investors are embracing this year&#039;s February reporting season, we must look back at what happened in August last year.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On many metrics, August 2019 marked the worst performance by corporate Australia post-GFC. Average profit growth for FY19 came out below zero. Aggregate dividends went backwards for only the second time in the decade. And if all that wasn&#039;t depressing enough, the subsequent banking reporting season saw Bank of Queensland ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BOQ<\/span>)),&nbsp;National Australia Bank ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NAB<\/span>)) and Westpac ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WBC<\/span>)) all cut dividends for shareholders.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">No surprise, the pendulum of share market momentum swung swiftly back to reliable, sustainable and predictable performers such as CSL ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CSL<\/span>)), REA Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">REA<\/span>)), and Woolworths ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WOW<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The Big Dip in the second half last year&nbsp;put the brakes on the broad market with the ASX200 only adding an additional 3% in total return on top of the circa 20%&nbsp;accumulated over the first six months. Underlying, trends and performances returned to their polarised divergence from 2018.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Then came the bushfires, and things were really not looking that rosy. In an ultra-rare occurrence,&nbsp;negative December&nbsp;didn&#039;t even allow for the traditional Santa rally leading into the new calendar year.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It&#039;s Not A Bubble<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If the trend stops worsening, things can actually start getting better. Investors&nbsp;believe there are sufficient signals and indications, historically and otherwise, suggesting the outlook is&nbsp;for better performances later in the year. Witness, for example, how the release of disappointing retail sales numbers for December on Thursday was mostly greeted with a shrug of the shoulders.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Most importantly, the 2020-will-be-better-thesis doesn&#039;t rely on a Big Turnaround. Only a small uplift from last year&#039;s trough should do the trick. Even the IMF and the RBA are on side, judging by their latest&nbsp;statements.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">But what about those elevated share prices, I hear you ask. Are we not witnessing a share market bubble much greater than the 1930s in stocks like CSL, Xero ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">XRO<\/span>)), Afterpay ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APT<\/span>)), Woolworths, and Wesfarmers ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WES<\/span>))? What should a prudent investor do in the face of Price-Earnings (PE) ratios beyond GFC highs, and for some at never before witnessed multiples?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Market analysts at UBS calculated recently the average PE ratio for industrials ex-financials in Australia has re-rated upwards to a multiple of 25x. They think this is the highest multiple seen in Australia since at least the 1930s. But to accurately assess today&#039;s stock valuations one also has to take into account that long-term bond yields are at exceptionally low levels. Low bond yields push up valuations elsewhere.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Investing in the share market today is&nbsp;attractive on the premise that bond yields will not make a sudden step-jump higher in the foreseeable future. Were this to happen,&nbsp;it wouldn&#039;t just hit the share prices of quality and growth stocks, but of share markets generally. And as witnessed during the brief bear market of late 2018, cheaper laggard stocks will fall just as hard as those that have outperformed.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This is the cloud of uncertainty that will simply never go away in its entirety.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Investors Looking Beyond Short Term<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">So how are we positioned for February 2020?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The broad Australian share market is estimated to deliver growth in earnings per share (EPS) of between 3%-5% in FY20 (depending on one&#039;s view about commodity prices). This looks a lot better than the negative number for FY19.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Earnings estimates have been trending upwards leading into February, but only because of upward adjustments to forecasts for resources companies. Ex-miners and energy producers the underlying trend remains negative, albeit predominantly because of small cap stocks that have been hit by bushfires, lacklustre consumer spending or the coronavirus fallout.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Usually, adjustments during reporting season pull the estimated pace of growth down, but this year some analysts are optimistic&nbsp;that by March&nbsp;average growth expectations might have actually increased slightly. We&#039;ll have to wait and see.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Solid contributions are expected from the technology sector and from general industrials, which also includes healthcare and the food and beverages sector. Financials are expected to perform weakly and that goes for banks, as well as for insurers, as well as for asset managers.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Health insurers in particular seem under the pump with both nib Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NHF<\/span>)) and Medibank Private ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MPL<\/span>)) having issued a profit warning. Airlines, airports, tourism and leisure operators, as well as casino owners are all expected to issue cautious statements due to the known unknowns from the coronavirus impact.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">One of the topics of discussion is to what extent will booking agents such as Webjet ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WEB<\/span>)) and Flight Centre ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FLT<\/span>)) be impacted? Expectations are equally low for traditional media companies.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Infrastructure owners are enjoying the benefits from cheaper funding costs, but assets might have been impacted by bushfires and other weather-related events. Utilities, as a group, are positioned for negative growth, while REITs look unspectacular, but solid (with lots of internal sector divergence).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">A lot hinges on the sustainability of the current uptrend for property prices and the follow-on&nbsp;impact for construction activity in Australia. This not only feeds into optimism for retailers such as Harvey Norman ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">HVN<\/span>)), GWA Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GWA<\/span>)) and Reece Australia ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">REH<\/span>)), but equally so for Super Retail ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SUL<\/span>)), Autosports Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ASG<\/span>)) and Automotive Holdings&nbsp;((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AHG<\/span>)), as well as for the likes of Adelaide Brighton ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ABC<\/span>)), Brickworks ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BKW<\/span>)) and CSR ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CSR<\/span>)), as well as Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GMA<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Stockbroker Morgans has already expressed&nbsp;confidence in local specialty retailers, suggesting the environment for consumer spending is better than last year, which should allow the sector to release &quot;OK&quot; reports this month, despite a number of share prices having run already. Morgans&#039; three sector Top Picks are Adairs ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ADH<\/span>)), Baby Bunting ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BBN<\/span>)), and Bapcor ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BAP<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Shares in furniture retailer Nick Scali ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NCK<\/span>)) were trading around $6 in November and they had lifted above $7 prior to Thursday&#039;s interim result release. The stock sprinted another 10.80% on the day of the release, as higher margins allowed for an earnings &quot;beat&quot;.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Reductions in dividends are expected to be less of an issue, though&nbsp;a number of shareholders will still be&nbsp;disappointed. Cimic Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CIM<\/span>))&nbsp;already announced there will be no dividend this month after a large write-down from the abandoned operations in the Middle East.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Bulk commodity producers BHP Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BHP<\/span>)), Rio Tinto ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RIO<\/span>)) and Fortescue Metals ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FMG<\/span>)) are all believed to&nbsp;be swimming in cash, offering ongoing potential for enlarged payouts to shareholders. Gold miners should be among&nbsp;beneficiaries as well.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Big miners seemed poised for a gold medal performance this month until the coronavirus appeared. Now the anticipated slowing in Chinese demand is putting a big question mark in front of the sector.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Renewed optimism has also descended upon engineers and contractors, though this sector in general remains beset with both&nbsp;hits and misses, as also proven by early profit warnings from Downer EDI ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">DOW<\/span>)) and Cimic Group.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Lastly, post unprecedented bushfires and Perpetual ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PPT<\/span>)) acquiring an ESG investor in Boston, it is&nbsp;likely investors&#039; focus will increasingly include questions about carbon footprint, risk from changing weather patterns, the modern slavery act, and the like.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Newcrest Mining ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NCM<\/span>)) has already flagged further absence of rain will limit its production capabilities next year. Despite potential for an uptick in investment by energy producers, contractor Worley ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WOR<\/span>)) has signaled appetite to diversify into green energy projects.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Confession season prior to February has seen a number of companies issuing profit warnings, including all three major general insurers and a number of retailers on top of eye-catching disappointments from the likes of Treasury Wine Estates ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TWE<\/span>)) and Nearmap ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NEA<\/span>)). Here the good news is the number of warnings this time around has been well below the numbers seen prior to February and August last year, further fueling the narrative things seem to be getting better\/less bad, with further improvement to follow.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As the fallout from the East Coast bushfires continues to ring home, building repairer Johns Lyng Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JLG<\/span>)) has announced itself as the first beneficiary from the rebuild post misery.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Hits &amp; Misses: The Candidates<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In terms of individual companies, analysts at UBS believe there is potential for upside surprises from BHP Group and Fortescue Metals, as well as from Charter Hall ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CHC<\/span>)), Goodman Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GMG<\/span>)), Dexus Property ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">DXS<\/span>)) and Mirvac Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MGR<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">The odds seem in favour of disappointing updates by the likes of Southern Cross Media ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SXL<\/span>)), Seven West Media ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SWM<\/span>)), HT&amp;E ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">HT1<\/span>)), Domino&#039;s Pizza ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">DMP<\/span>)) and Inghams Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ING<\/span>)), as well as from Scentre Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SCG<\/span>)), Vicinity Centres ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">VCX<\/span>)), Lendlease ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LLC<\/span>)), Flight Centre, Crown Resorts ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CWN<\/span>)), and Star Entertainment ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SGR<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">UBS also believes expectations are likely too high for what CommBank ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CBA<\/span>)) can possibly deliver this month. Small caps considered prime candidates for disappointment this month include Bega Cheese ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BGA<\/span>)), InvoCare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IVC<\/span>)) and Japara Healthcare ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JHC<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Small cap stocks likely to surprise, according to UBS, include Appen ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APX<\/span>)), NRW Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NWH<\/span>)), Webjet, and Flexigroup ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">FXL<\/span>)). The latter was kind of a favourite among analysts to be a likely winner this month, but the company&nbsp;issued a profit warning and so has become one of the early prominent disappointments. Just goes to show: there are no watertight certainties during reporting season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Several analysts are expecting an excellent performance from Goodman Group, with some suggesting management looks poised to lift full-year guidance.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Macquarie finds upside potential rests with a2 Milk ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">A2M<\/span>)) while market consensus seems too high for Suncorp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SUN<\/span>)), Insurance Australia Group, and Medibank Private -all insurers!- as well as for South32 ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">S32<\/span>)) and Newcrest Mining.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">JB Hi-Fi ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JBH<\/span>)), often targeted during times like these through short positioning, is mentioned for its ability to deliver yet another strong result. Citi has&nbsp;high expectations for James Hardie ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">JHX<\/span>)), Coles ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">COL<\/span>)), and BlueScope Steel ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BSL<\/span>)). The analysts contradict peers with positive forecasts for Shopping Centres Australasia ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SCP<\/span>)), and with an ongoing negative outlook for Healius ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">HLS<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Other stocks mentioned with a negative bias include BWP Trust ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BWP<\/span>)),&nbsp;Cleanaway Waste Management ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CWY<\/span>)), OZ Minerals ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">OZL<\/span>)),&nbsp;Regis Resources ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RRL<\/span>)),&nbsp;Qantas ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">QAN<\/span>)), Boral ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BLD<\/span>)), Iluka Resources ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ILU<\/span>)), Qube Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">QUB<\/span>)), Whitehaven Coal ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WHC<\/span>)), Reece Australia, Adelaide Brighton, and Brickworks.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Stockbroker Morgans has also nominated Australian Finance Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AFG<\/span>)), Infigen Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IFN<\/span>)), Telstra ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TLS<\/span>)), Afterpay, QBE Insurance, Santos ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">STO<\/span>)), Generation Development ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GDG<\/span>)), IDP Education ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IEL<\/span>)), Mainstream Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MAI<\/span>)), Pro Medicus ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">PME<\/span>)) and Megaport ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">MP1<\/span>)) for a positive surprise.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Additional prime candidates for a negative surprise according to the broker include AGL Energy ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AGL<\/span>)), Spark Infrastructure ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SKI<\/span>)), Link Administration ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">LNK<\/span>)), Bapcor, Apollo Tourism &amp; Leisure ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ATL<\/span>)),&nbsp;and Costa Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CGC<\/span>)) while weaker outlook statements might be forthcoming from companies including Wesfarmers, AP Eagers ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APE<\/span>)), Coronado Global Resources ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CRN<\/span>)), Corporate Travel ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CTD<\/span>)), National Tyre &amp; Wheel ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NTD<\/span>)), and AMP ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMP<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Earlier around mid-January Ord Minnett also pointed at Domain Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">DHG<\/span>)) for a potential upside surprise, alongside CSL, but the latter&#039;s share price has rallied strongly since.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">I will be watching Amcor&#039;s ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">AMC<\/span>)) result closely on February 17. If that&#039;s a good one, it may finally allow the share price to break free from its post-Orora spin off stasis.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">****<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><strong><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">February Reports: Global Uncertainties, Profit Warnings, And..?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Last year, the two major corporate reporting seasons attracted larger than usual numbers of profit warnings in the weeks leading up to February and August. January this year has not generated similarly large numbers, but profit warnings are&nbsp;coming through nevertheless.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">With share market indices near an all-time high, the response from nervy investors can be quite unsettling for shareholders owning the shares of companies issuing a warning.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">One would have thought with bushfires raging through towns and villages in NSW and Victoria, and with anecdotal evidence signaling consumers stopped spending post Boxing Day, while the Aussie dollar tried to rally above US70c in the meantime, investors would be a little cautious ahead of the upcoming February reporting season, but the start of the new calendar year showed no such restraint.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">We can all but wonder where the share market would be without the coronavirus, but the observation remains that&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">profit warnings<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;remain part and parcel of corporate profit seasons in Australia.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Market strategists at JPMorgan have kept track of the numbers, and shared some of their observations. Since mid-December, 17 companies included in the ASX300 have &quot;confessed&quot; their operations are not running in line with market expectations. Of these &quot;profit warnings&quot;,&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">discretionary retailers and industrials<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;are responsible for the lion share, with the former sector alone accounting for one-third of all warnings thus far.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In response, one-day share price punishments have been quite severe with the average share price fall -16.5%. JP Morgan strategists observe the average downgrade to forecast earnings has been -15.5%, which is not dissimilar.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It is important to note JP Morgan&#039;s research does not include all profit warnings issued, which can be partially explained by a certain discretion about when negative news is a profit warning. I note, for example, insurers Suncorp and QBE Insurance are missing from the report, but Insurance Australia Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">IAG<\/span>)) is included. Equally, there is no mentioning of Gentrack Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GTN<\/span>)) or Beacon Lighting ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">BLX<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Equally important, the strategists point out despite these warnings, the broader earnings trend for Australian companies remains positive leading into the February season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Again, this remains subject to interpretation. On FNArena&#039;s observation, earnings estimates are definitely falling, an observation backed by analysts at Macquarie, though we agree with JP Morgan it appears small cap companies are faring worse than large caps.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">At least thus far.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">What cannot be denied is that multiple companies are enjoying upgrades in earnings forecasts and among those are companies that recently updated on&nbsp;financial performances, including Credit Corp ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">CCP<\/span>)), Afterpay ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">APT<\/span>)), GUD Holdings ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">GUD<\/span>)), ResMed ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">RMD<\/span>)), and Virgin Money UK ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">VUK<\/span>)).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Under &quot;normal&quot; circumstances, one might expect rising earnings forecasts translate into a rising share price, but with coronavirus and other macro-factors hitting investor sentiment, this has now become less of a certainty. Investors should note: this means there will be opportunities with less risk when companies perform well operationally but their share prices are being held back by macro-angst.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">My own suggestion would therefore be to look for excellence in performance potentially followed by share price weakness because of macro concerns and herd behaviour. ResMed once again seems to fit the profile.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Looking For Beaten Down Bargains<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Investors being investors, and above all: human, the animal instinct will direct many eyes towards the beaten down share prices of companies that disappoint this month. After all, everything has a price,&nbsp;<em><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">n&#039;est-ce pas<\/span><\/em>?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">It depends on one&#039;s strategy and horizon. Analysis and observations from past reporting seasons teaches us that shares in&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">companies that surprise to the upside are most likely to outperform<\/span><\/strong>, at times up until three months and longer after the event, while share prices in companies that disappoint can continue to oscillate around bargain-basement price level, until the next catalyst arrives, which potentially could&nbsp;be the August reporting season in six months&#039; time.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">My personal insight is to watch what happens to analyst forecasts and valuations post reporting. If forecasts rise and valuations are pushed higher, and the share price isn&#039;t already trading well above&nbsp;revised valuations and price targets, you have most likely discovered an outperformer who might continue to outperform for longer.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Exactly the same formula works the other way around, unless an extremely cheap valuation triggers take-over speculation, or something similar. Investing in the share market is often said to be all about cashflows and profits, but when it comes to drawing lessons from corporate profit reports investors tend to be best off when they correctly assess the&nbsp;<em><u><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">trend<\/span><\/u><\/em>&nbsp;in profits and in profit forecasts.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Which is why jumping on cheap-looking stocks post unexpected profit warning is a strategy beset with elevated risk. I suggest, for investors with a longer-term horizon it is imperative to&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">assess whether a profit warning has changed the growth outlook for the company beyond the short term<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In many cases it will do exactly that. This means investors need to re-assess what the outlook for this company looks like in the new context. This is not easy, given we&nbsp;are all influenced by the past, not in the least where share prices and valuations have been pre-profit warning.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">From a personal perspective, I don&#039;t like companies that issue profit warnings. I can understand management teams cannot anticipate everything, and there is always room for an Act of God or an unpredictable setback, but in most cases profit warnings should have alarm bells ringing, and ringing loudly.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Most likely, they reveal not everything is running smoothly inside the organisation. Or management does not have a firm grip on the business, or doesn&#039;t understand the risks well, or is too optimistic in its messaging. It is also possible that sector dynamics are very fluid. Or that competition is getting a lot tougher. Or current management is simply not up to the challenge.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">None of these reasons make for an attractive longer term investment, irrespective of how deeply a share price falls.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">For investors who happen to own shares in companies that heavily disappoint, and that don&#039;t look like a great investment anymore within the revised context, I have but one key message:&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">it is never too late to sell.<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;It only takes one look at the share price graph of, say, Slater &amp; Gordon ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">SGH<\/span>)) shares to underpin that statement.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Treasury Wine<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This year&#039;s January confession season has impacted on my stable of preferred exposures in the local share market, with&nbsp;Treasury Wine Estates ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">TWE<\/span>)) and Nearmap ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">NEA<\/span>)) both issuing profit warnings. In both cases the share market reaction has been nothing short of&nbsp;savage.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Within my framework of finding All-Weather Performers, and combining my short-list of high quality performers with companies that have longer dated growth trajectories, I had included Treasury Wine under &quot;Prime Growth Stories&#039; and Nearmap under &quot;Emerging New Business Models&quot;.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In both cases, the inclusions proved quite prescient for a while as share prices climbed to ever higher levels, but that was then. Now we know that, in Treasury Wine&#039;s case, the strategy to develop a new distribution model in North America is in tatters, and new management is looking for answers via an in-depth review.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Meanwhile, the odds seem very much in favour this company might be hit with more negative developments. Not in the least because Chinese cafes and restaurants are operating under the cloud of the spreading coronavirus. In Australia, grapes have been impacted by bushfires and the smoke these fires spread around.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">For good measure: coronavirus-related impacts might prove temporary only and a shortage in high quality grapes locally might not have a large impact on the company&#039;s production of premium wines short-term, but these&nbsp;are tangible&nbsp;risks that won&#039;t go away simply because the share price has tanked.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Last year the Treasury Wine share price had weakened on speculation of hidden inventory build-up among distributors in China. It was a narrative spread around by hedge funds that had gone short the stock. As time went by, it seemed this malicious narrative didn&#039;t seem to stack up, and thus the FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio added some Treasury Wine shares.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">By&nbsp;December, however, upon reading about problems inside the US division, it was decided to offload all those shares and reduce the portfolio&#039;s exposure to zero. In hindsight, this proved&nbsp;prescient. Or to use another term: lucky. We had no idea a profit warning was forthcoming only weeks later before the February half-yearly update.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Treasury Wine had been an outstanding performer from mid-2015 as the former division of Foster&#039;s finally got rid of its mediocre management-legacy and successfully executed on a strategy of &quot;premiumisation&quot; and increasing market share in China.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Taking a step back from all the positives that have occurred in the years past, of which some will continue in the years ahead, we have to conclude there is now potential for a lot of negative news flow, while risks remain elevated.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">If the Model Portfolio hadn&#039;t sold all its shares in December, we would have sold post profit warning. Treasury Wine is hereby removed from the selection of Prime Growth Stories on the website. This doesn&#039;t mean all hope should be abandoned and this company can never again recover from the damage done.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">What this does mean is that the company&#039;s overall risk profile doesn&#039;t suit the cautious, lower risk approach we prefer for the Portfolio. For similar reasons, we decided to sell the portfolio&#039;s remaining small exposure to WiseTech Global ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">WTC<\/span>)) in December. Too many unresolved question marks about the accounting in between subsidiaries and the mother ship need to be addressed with more transparency by the company.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Nearmap<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Another grave disappointment was delivered by Nearmap, a company that arguably has everything at its disposal to become an international success story.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On Monday, Citi analysts explained why they&nbsp;remain optimistic longer-term post the January disappointment: Nearmap has a scalable business model, the current market share in North America, which is a large addressable market, remains tiny and there&nbsp;remains plenty of potential to move into additional geographies.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On the flipside, things clearly have not been running smoothly internally, an admission that was explicitly included in the written statement to the ASX. While management is likely to reduce the cash burn, the company is still not profitable and if more bad news were to follow, investors might start speculating about the need for extra capital.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">This is probably partially why the share price is where it is today, which is well below targets set forth by stockbroking analysts (even post profit warning). I think the market is now anticipating a slower pace of growth for Nearmap in the years ahead. This might not be bad news in se, as it also reduces the potential for management to stretch itself and the company&#039;s resources too far.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">But slower growth is slower growth, and if it turns out too slow this in itself can potentially result in more bad news through the share market allocating a lower valuation and, not to be completely dismissed, the company running out of cash before reaching break-even.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">One observation that is firmly on my radar is the fact that management at Nearmap has now delivered three disappointments to the market in less than twelve months. This can be a sign of more negative news flow to come. Some of the corporate disaster stories from years gone by, including Slater &amp; Gordon, iSentia ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ISD<\/span>)) and Eclipx Group ((<span style=\"color:#12417F\">ECX<\/span>)), started off with exactly the same pattern of successive&nbsp;disappointments.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Which is why&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\">Nearmap now sits in the naughty corner<\/span><\/strong>. One more negative piece of news, and we&#039;ll probably sell without thinking twice about it. In the meantime, we continue to re-assess, including asking ourselves questions about where to&nbsp;allocate the funds in the portfolio in the best possible manner.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Heavy turnover volumes in Nearmap shares post profit warning is likely an indication&nbsp;some institutional shareholders have now abandoned the register, while others have been waiting for the opportunity to get on board at a heavily discounted price, judging by the rally in the share price on Monday, when broad selling is dominating most ASX-listed entities.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">As per always, this is what makes a market. Though not everybody is in it for the longer haul. Always good to keep this in mind.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Investors should know their own risk profile, level of experience, strategy and objectives, and act accordingly.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><u><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">All-Weather Model Portfolio<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">Apart from the few minor adjustments in December as explained earlier, no changes were made to the FNArena-Vested Equities Model Portfolio thus far in 2020. Direct impact from slowing growth or the coronavirus on the portfolio&nbsp;should be rather benign, on our assessment, and we already shifted into a more cautionary composition in August last year, as explained at that time.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">In January, the Portfolio&#039;s performance kept track with the broad share market. For the financial year to date (from July 1st onwards) the performance remains in excess of 4% above the ASX200 Accumulation Index, taking total return ex-costs to near 12.50%.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">On our observation, expectations for a general revival of laggards\/value stocks in Australia continue to be hampered by obstacles on the ground, while high quality performers continue doing what they do naturally and best.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:0cm;margin-right:0cm\"><span style=\"color:black\"><span style=\"font-family:open sans,sans-serif\"><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt\">I intend to conduct a general update on my stock selections post this reporting season in March.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: &quot;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index4.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&amp;n=29EB960D-9DFF-C00E-7F6B464E5D52E250\">Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>&quot; &#8211; Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>FNArena&nbsp;is proud about its track record and past achievements: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/03\/rudis-view-ten-years-on-the-world-is-still-turning\/\">Ten Years On<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A comprehensive assessment of Australia&#8217;s corporate results in February and August 2020, amidst coronavirus pandemic and fall-out, economic disruption, more extreme central bank policies and ongoing tension between the world&#8217;s two super powers<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":89052,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89027"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89027\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89052"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}