##{"id":96188,"date":"2021-09-01T09:13:31","date_gmt":"2021-08-31T23:13:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/?p=96188"},"modified":"2021-09-01T10:21:06","modified_gmt":"2021-09-01T00:21:06","slug":"the-overnight-report-summer-winding-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2021\/09\/01\/the-overnight-report-summer-winding-down\/","title":{"rendered":"The Overnight Report: Summer Winding Down"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
World Overnight<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SPI Overnight (Jun)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7444.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 33.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.44%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P ASX 200<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7534.90<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 30.40<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.41%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P500<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n4522.68<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 6.11<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.13%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nasdaq Comp<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n15259.24<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 6.65<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.04%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DJIA<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n35360.73<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 39.11<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.11%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P500 VIX<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n16.48<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.29<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.79%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
US 10-year yield<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.30<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.02<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.48%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USD Index<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n92.67<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.03<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.03%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FTSE100<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7119.70<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 28.31<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.40%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DAX30<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n15835.09<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 52.22<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.33%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

By Greg Peel<\/p>\n

Lovely Display<\/u><\/p>\n

A funny thing happened on the ASX yesterday. The ASX200 did not shoot up, pull back and then rally, rather it opened quietly and tracked a relatively steady path to be up 50 points with 20 minutes to go. Then in came some profit-takers.<\/p>\n

While a close of up 0.4% did actually match the S&P500 overnight, and it was the final day of individual stock influence from earnings reports, the session smacked largely of end-of-month window dressing. Hence the late sell-off, and noting the fact the futures are down -33 points this morning for no obvious reason.<\/p>\n

So we reset for September, historically the weakest month of the year, ahead of October, historically the most volatile.<\/p>\n

With our earnings season now out of the way, and the long US earnings season all but over, we head into a bit of a dead period in September, at least until the Fed meeting in three weeks. Otherwise, vaccination rates will be clearly in the spotlight and on that count we (finally) seem to be doing quite well.<\/p>\n

Sector wise, we saw technology up 1.9% yesterday, following the Nasdaq, industrials up 1.2%, property up 1.2%, staples up 1.1%, and, with more index clout, healthcare up 0.9%. Telcos managed 0.8% and discretionary 0.4%, weighed down by a post-result drop for Harvey Norman ((HVN)).<\/p>\n

Energy fell -1.4% and utilities -1.2%, the former exacerbated by Worley ((WOR)) going ex-div, while the banks and materials took the day off.<\/p>\n

Notably, on the last day of earnings season, not one top five index winner on the day reported earnings. Clinuvel Pharmaceutical ((CUV)), which is not covered by FNArena database brokers, jumped 10.7%, followed by three tech stocks and a lithium miner, all of which had reported prior.<\/p>\n

Mesoblast ((MSB)), also not covered, was the result train crash of the day in falling -15.9%, but thereafter Worley managed to come in at second place on the losers’ board just by going ex. Harvey Norman fell -3.2% for fourth spot.<\/p>\n

In economic news, Australia posted its ninth consecutive current account surplus in the June quarter, thanks to selling rocks at high prices. The last run anything like it was seven consecutive quarters over 1972-75 (during another commodities boom, and into a recession).<\/p>\n

With all the lead-in numbers in, economists are forecasting a June quarter GDP result today of 0.5% quarter on quarter growth and a sly 9.2% annual growth, cycling last year’s big lockdown plunge. Sounds good, but is of little relevance. The delta-impeded September quarter is what matters now.<\/p>\n

Yawn<\/u><\/p>\n

Wall Street can often be volatile on the last day of any month as the profit-takers fight it out with the window-dressers, but not last night. Last night the market just stopped.<\/p>\n

When what little dust there was settled, the Dow closed up 1.2% for the month, the S&P 2.9% and the Nasdaq 4.0%. The S&P marked its strongest eight month gain since 1997.<\/p>\n

With Jackson Hole now out of the way and the Fed meeting not for three weeks, and the earnings season as good as over, Wall Street may make the most of the last few days of the summer break, which unofficially ends with the Labor Day long weekend this weekend.<\/p>\n

There will nevertheless be the August jobs numbers to deal with on Friday night.<\/p>\n

Not providing much impetus was the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index, which has slid to a six-month low of 113.8 from 125.1 in July. Economists had forecast 123.1 so it’s a significant miss, driven, according to the survey, by delta and inflation fears.<\/p>\n

This survey corroborates Michigan Uni’s separate survey numbers, which fell in each of its fortnightly surveys in August to also miss expectations.<\/p>\n

The question for Wall Street now is can the market book yet another month of gains? In the seasonally weakest month of the year? There has not been one -5% pullback all year.<\/p>\n

The bears suggest a pullback simply must be due, but then they’ve been saying that for months. The bulls point to the fact that while the market PE is still elevated, significant earnings growth (E) revealed in the result season means PE is not nearly as stretched as it was prior, despite persistent all-time highs (P).<\/p>\n

And the PE should be above average anyway given Fed support.<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/u><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gold (oz)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1814.10<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 3.90<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.22%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Silver (oz)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n23.88<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.12<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.50%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Copper (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n4.29<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.03<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.81%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aluminium (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.22<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.01<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.76%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lead (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.09<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.01<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.86%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nickel (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.87<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.31<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n3.62%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zinc (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.36<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.35%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
West Texas Crude <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n68.50<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.71<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 1.03%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brent Crude<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n72.99<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.29<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.40%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Iron Ore (t)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n152.60<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 5.15<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 3.26%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The surge in the nickel price last night was a result of the latest inventory data, particularly in Shanghai, which is not sufficient to meet current demand. Demand strength reflects the fact nickel consumers are putting in orders well ahead of actual need, in order not to be caught out by shipping delays.<\/p>\n

The steady rise upward of late for aluminium is a case of demand meeting constrained supply from the world’s biggest producer of the stuff – China — as Beijing clamps down on heavily energy intensive, and water intensive, smelting for environmental reasons.<\/p>\n

Iron ore has taken another bit of a tumble but for now seems to be trying to consolidate in the US$150-160\/t region.<\/p>\n

The Aussie is up 0.3% to US$0.7316, despite the greenback being little moved, likely on yesterday’s current account numbers.<\/p>\n

Today<\/u><\/p>\n

The SPI Overnight closed down -33 points or -0.4%.<\/p>\n

GDP numbers today, along with August house prices.<\/p>\n

Globally we’ll see August manufacturing PMIs today.<\/p>\n

August private sector jobs numbers are out in the US.<\/p>\n

Quite a few stocks going ex-dividend today, with Wesfarmers ((WES)) the biggest.<\/p>\n

Metcash ((MTS)) holds its AGM.<\/p>\n

Summaries of analyst responses to the prior day’s results are available on the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor<\/a>.<\/p>\n

(https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/index.php\/reporting_season\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
A2M<\/td>\na2 Milk Co<\/td>\nUpgrade to Buy from Neutral<\/td>\nCiti<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ABC<\/td>\nAdBri<\/td>\nUpgrade to Add from Hold<\/td>\nMorgans<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ALG<\/td>\nArdent Leisure<\/td>\nUpgrade to Buy from Sell<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ALU<\/td>\nAltium<\/td>\nDowngrade to Neutral from Outperform<\/td>\nCredit Suisse<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ASG<\/td>\nAutosports Group<\/td>\nUpgrade to Outperform from Neutral<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BKL<\/td>\nBlackmores<\/td>\nUpgrade to Outperform from Neutral<\/td>\nCredit Suisse<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
COE<\/td>\nCooper Energy<\/td>\nDowngrade to Underweight from Equal-weight<\/td>\nMorgan Stanley<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FCL<\/td>\nFineos Corp<\/td>\nUpgrade to Accumulate from Hold<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FLT<\/td>\nFlight Centre Travel<\/td>\nDowngrade to Lighten from Hold<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ILU<\/td>\nIluka Resources<\/td>\nUpgrade to Neutral from Underperform<\/td>\nCredit Suisse<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LNK<\/td>\nLink Administration<\/td>\nUpgrade to Accumulate from Hold<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\nDowngrade to Neutral from Buy<\/td>\nCiti<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LOV<\/td>\nLovisa<\/td>\nDowngrade to Neutral from Outperform<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MCR<\/td>\nMincor Resources<\/td>\nDowngrade to Neutral from Outperform<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MYX<\/td>\nMayne Pharma<\/td>\nUpgrade to Buy from Neutral<\/td>\nCiti<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NXT<\/td>\nNextDC<\/td>\nDowngrade to Accumulate from Buy<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PAR<\/td>\nParadigm Biopharmaceuticals<\/td>\nUpgrade to Hold from Reduce<\/td>\nMorgans<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PLS<\/td>\nPilbara Minerals<\/td>\nDowngrade to Hold from Buy<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
QUB<\/td>\nQube Holdings<\/td>\nUpgrade to Outperform from Neutral<\/td>\nCredit Suisse<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\nUpgrade to Hold from Reduce<\/td>\nMorgans<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WES<\/td>\nWesfarmers<\/td>\nDowngrade to Neutral from Outperform<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WGN<\/td>\nWagners Holding Co<\/td>\nDowngrade to Neutral from Outperform<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report<\/a>, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.<\/p>\n

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here<\/a>. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)<\/em><\/p>\n

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's – see disclaimer on the website)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.<\/em><\/p>\n

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com<\/em><\/p>\n

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wall Street went quiet last night ahead of a long weekend, with jobs numbers in the frame for Friday. Dow down -39. (Available for non-subscribers after 10am)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":96194,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96188"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96188\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96194"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}