##{"id":99636,"date":"2022-02-15T09:00:10","date_gmt":"2022-02-14T22:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/?p=99636"},"modified":"2022-02-15T10:29:27","modified_gmt":"2022-02-14T23:29:27","slug":"the-overnight-report-second-guessing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/15\/the-overnight-report-second-guessing\/","title":{"rendered":"The Overnight Report: Second-Guessing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
World Overnight<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SPI Overnight<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7083.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 64.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.90%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P ASX 200<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7243.90<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 26.60<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.37%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P500<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n4401.67<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 16.97<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.38%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nasdaq Comp<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n13790.92<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.24<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.00%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DJIA<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n34566.17<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 171.89<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.49%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P500 VIX<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n28.33<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.97<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n3.55%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
US 10-year yield<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n2.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.04<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n2.10%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USD Index<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n96.33<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.25<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.26%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FTSE100<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7531.59<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 129.43<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 1.69%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DAX30<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n15113.97<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 311.15<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 2.02%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

By Greg Peel<\/p>\n

Macro-Micro Muddle<\/u><\/p>\n

Funny old market. On Friday night the S&P500 fell -1.9% but our futures suggested only a -0.5% for the ASX200 on Monday. The index opened down -36 points but swiftly rebounded to ultimately close up 26.<\/p>\n

Last night the S&P500 fell -0.3% and our futures are showing down -0.9% this morning.<\/p>\n

I noted yesterday that a volatile macro overlay for the market during reporting season is unfortunate as it distorts assessments of individual company performances. But it also works the other way. Defiant strength in the ASX200 yesterday was as much about positive earnings results as it was about oil and gold.<\/p>\n

A geopolitically driven jump in oil prices on Friday night had our energy sector up 3.4% yesterday and utilities up 1.9%. Beach Energy ((BPT)) also provided a strong result on the day, and topped the index with a 9.4% gain.<\/p>\n

The following four top five positions were filled by gold miners, with 7-8% gains.<\/p>\n

Yet the materials sector fell -0.4%, on a weaker iron ore price and lithium\/battery stocks going off the boil. Battery tech company Novonix ((NVX)) topped the index losers with a -10.8% fall, while miners Liontown Resources ((LTR)) and Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) fell -7.9% and -7.6%, respectively.<\/p>\n

Financials stood out with a 1.5% gain, as the big banks caught a bid and Bendigo & Adelaide Bank ((BEN)) gained 4.4% on its earnings result.<\/p>\n

You can always rely on a JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) result – it rose 5.4%, but weak responses followed results from Boral ((BLD)) and Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ)), while investment platform Praemium ((PPS)) was hammered -13.9%.<\/p>\n

It was another poor session for healthcare (-1.7%) as CSL ((CSL)) struggles with US plasma collections.<\/p>\n

The other interesting sector move to note was technology. It fell -0.3% with the Nasdaq down -2.8% on Friday night.<\/p>\n

Amongst several earnings reports due today, that of Australia’s biggest company will be the one in the spotlight.<\/p>\n

We have oil prices up again overnight, and gold up again, while iron ore has slipped slightly and base metals were mixed.<\/p>\n

As to why the futures are down more emphatically than Wall Street this morning is unclear.<\/p>\n

Russian About<\/u><\/p>\n

It was a down-up-down-up session on Wall Street last night as the market responded to every little snippet of the constantly developing Ukraine-Russia story.<\/p>\n

At different times we had the Russian foreign minister suggesting diplomatic talks will continue, German chancellor Sargent Sholz shuttling between Kyiv and Moscow, the Ukrainian president announcing Russia will invade on Wednesday, which turned out to be an ironic snipe at Western scare-mongers, and the US closing its embassy in Kyiv and moving it west to near the Polish border, destroying all communications hardware before departure.<\/p>\n

So what’s going to happen? That’s the problem – everyone has an opinion but nobody, other than perhaps Putin, knows, and even he may not be certain.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the flight to safety was again apparent in gold and the US dollar, but the US ten-year yield climbed up once more, by 4 basis points to 1.99%.<\/p>\n

The Dow recovered from dropping more than -430 points early to close down -171, while the Nasdaq this time outperformed the rest in closing flat, despite higher yields.<\/p>\n

The VIX volatility index has in the last few sessions traded above 30 on the day before slipping under by the close (28 last night). The 30 level is considered that beyond which it’s best left only to the day-traders. Everyone else stay out.<\/p>\n

One interesting move in the S&P last night was that of the energy sector. WTI rose another 1.8% but the energy sector fell -2.2% to be the worst performer on the day.<\/p>\n

It is suggested that while higher oil prices are clearly a positive for energy companies, when you get towards US$100\/bbl you are facing demand-destruction and a possible economic downturn.<\/p>\n

All we know for now is that Putin will either invade tomorrow, or next week, or after the Olympics so as to not upset his mate Xi, or not. It could just all be a big try-on.<\/p>\n

Or not.<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/u><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gold (oz)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1872.20<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 13.20<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.71%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Silver (oz)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n23.84<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.27<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.15%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Copper (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n4.49<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.04<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.99%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aluminium (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.42<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.02<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 1.57%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lead (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.04<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.35%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nickel (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n10.71<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.02%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zinc (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.64<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.01<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.33%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
West Texas Crude <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n94.73<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 1.63<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.75%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brent Crude<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n95.73<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 1.29<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.37%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Iron Ore (t)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n149.40<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.75<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.50%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

As discussed. Note gold’s further gain defied both the US dollar and US yields, making it the clear store-of-wealth play.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin has been all over the shop.<\/p>\n

Today<\/u><\/p>\n

The SPI Overnight closed down -64 points or -0.9%.<\/p>\n

The US will release January PPI data tonight, just to remind us monetary policy as also a source of volatility at present.<\/p>\n

On that subject, the minutes of the February RBA meeting are out today.<\/p>\n

BHP Group ((BHP)) reports earnings, among others.<\/p>\n

For upcoming earnings result dates, and a summary of results to date, please refer to the<\/em> FNArena Corporate Results Monitor<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BAP<\/td>\nBapcor<\/td>\nUpgrade to Buy from Hold<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DOW<\/td>\nDowner EDI<\/td>\nDowngrade to Neutral from Outperform<\/td>\nCredit Suisse<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MGR<\/td>\nMirvac Group<\/td>\nUpgrade to Buy from Neutral<\/td>\nCiti<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VSL<\/td>\nVulcan Steel<\/td>\nDowngrade to Neutral from Outperform<\/td>\nCredit Suisse<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report<\/a>, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.<\/p>\n

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here<\/a>. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)<\/em><\/p>\n

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's – see disclaimer on the website)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.<\/em><\/p>\n

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)<\/a>" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com<\/em><\/p>\n

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Every little piece of geopolitical news or speculation has Wall Street rushing backward and forward. Dow down -171. (Available for non-subscribers after 10am)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":99642,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99636"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99636"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99636\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/99642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}