##{"id":99762,"date":"2022-02-21T09:03:51","date_gmt":"2022-02-20T22:03:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fnarena.com\/?p=99762"},"modified":"2022-02-21T09:03:53","modified_gmt":"2022-02-20T22:03:53","slug":"the-monday-report-21-february-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/21\/the-monday-report-21-february-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"The Monday Report – 21 February 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
World Overnight<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SPI Overnight<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7094.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 51.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.71%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P ASX 200<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7221.70<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 74.50<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 1.02%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P500<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n4348.87<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 31.39<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.72%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nasdaq Comp<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n13548.07<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 168.65<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 1.23%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DJIA<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n34079.18<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 232.85<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.68%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P500 VIX<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n27.75<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.36<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 1.28%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
US 10-year yield<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.93<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.04<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 2.03%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USD Index<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n96.04<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.22<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.23%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FTSE100<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7513.62<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 23.75<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.32%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DAX30<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n15042.51<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 225.12<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 1.47%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

By Greg Peel<\/p>\n

Macro v. Micro<\/u><\/p>\n

Shelling on the Ukraine border had Wall Street tumbling on Thursday night and our futures down -82 on Friday morning, and by late morning the ASX200 was down -95. Buyers then emerged but made only modest headway in the afternoon.<\/p>\n

The index closed up a net 4 points for the week, as a strong earnings season to date battled against the ebb and flow of geopolitical developments.<\/p>\n

FNArena’s Corporate Result Monitor (link below) continues to show earnings beats running above 50%, but as of Friday we were only around a third of the way through the season, with this week bringing the other two-thirds.<\/p>\n

Friday’s was a comparatively short list of daily reporters in the context, but this did not preclude some big moves, while further big moves were posted by companies having reported earlier.<\/p>\n

All sectors closed in the red on Friday but two stood out.<\/p>\n

CSL ((CSL)) had been the hero of the week in rallying strongly on its earnings result, having been steadily sold down to that point, but on Friday CSL was slapped again by -4.1%, sending healthcare down -3.1%.<\/p>\n

Utilities closed down -4.1% with both Origin Energy ((ORG)) and AGL Energy ((AGL)) having a post Eraring announcement bad day.<\/p>\n

News overnight is that Atlassian co-founder and eco-warrior Mike Cannon-Brookes has teamed up with Canadian asset manager Brookfield to make an offer for AGL. If successful, the new owners will can the planned demerger into old\/new energy companies and simply speed up the exit from coal-fired power.<\/p>\n

The bid to date is nevertheless only just above Friday’s closing price.<\/p>\n

Star earnings reporter on the day was embattled Magellan Financial Group ((MFG)), which had the shorters scrambling for stock after it announced a share buyback. The shares jumped 18.5%. It’s still down -60% from its high.<\/p>\n

QBE Insurance ((QBE)) is known as a perennial disappointer and by that measure did not disappoint with its result, which had the stock down -8.7%.<\/p>\n

Inghams Group ((ING)) has struggled from day one of covid and omicron has only rubbed the chicken salt into the wound. It fell -5.1%.<\/p>\n

Incitec Pivot ((IPL)) did not report earnings, but did report a shutdown of its Louisiana ammonia plant after a technical incident. It fell -6.1%.<\/p>\n

The best performing sector on Friday were materials, in only falling -0.2%. Investors continued to show their displeasure at Twiggy’s own eco-warrioring and sent Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) down another -3.3%, but gold and coal miners filled out the top five winners’ board after Magellan.<\/p>\n

The result season picks up the pace again from today, ahead of an avalanche towards the end of the week. Meanwhile, Putin is yet to invade, Wall Street continued to run scared on Friday night and our futures were down another -51 on Saturday morning.<\/p>\n

Play it Safe<\/u><\/p>\n

Another week has gone by and nothing has changed. Theories abound but the conclusion is consistent: nobody knows.<\/p>\n

Biden insists Putin is definitely set to invade but still the US secretary of state will visit his Russian counterpart this week.<\/p>\n

Friday was another session of up-down-up-down on Wall Street as traders clutched every little straw of new information, of which realistically there was none. While the US earnings season continues, it’s into its long tail, so unlike our market there’s not much else to impact on sentiment at present.<\/p>\n

There may have been some interested buyers about on Friday night but the general feeling was don’t go home long ahead of a long weekend – not under these circumstances. There has been much talk of Putin perhaps waiting for the Olympics to end, so as not to upset his mate, and last night they ended.<\/p>\n

It’s no more than a waiting game.<\/p>\n

For the record, the trend in this US quarterly earnings season of high-flying growth stocks being shot out of the sky continued on Friday night, with streaming service Roku and online sports betting company DraftKings each dropping -22%.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, there’s still much debate about Fed policy, but given the upheaval that would follow a Russian invasion and subsequent sanctions, particularly on oil exports, nothing is set in stone.<\/p>\n

If Putin invades tonight, Wall Street is closed.<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/u><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gold (oz)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1899.20<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 1.10<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.06%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Silver (oz)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n23.92<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.10<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.42%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Copper (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n4.55<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.01<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.16%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aluminium (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.49<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.28%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lead (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.07<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.00<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.27%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nickel (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n11.11<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.10<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.88%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zinc (lb)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.64<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.01<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.58%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
West Texas Crude <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n91.07<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.52<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n– 0.57%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brent Crude<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n93.54<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 0.66<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.71%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Iron Ore (t)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n133.50<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n+ 2.85<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n2.18%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Nothing much to see here, other than iron ore made a bit of a comeback.<\/p>\n

The Aussie is down -0.1% at US$0.7182.<\/p>\n

The SPI Overnight closed down -51 points or -0.7% on Saturday morning.<\/p>\n

The Week Ahead<\/u><\/p>\n

Aside from it being the biggest week in the local earnings season this week by a margin, we’ll also begin to see lead-in data for Australia’s December quarter GDP result, due next week.<\/p>\n

Wednesday brings construction work done and the wage price index – the latter critical to the RBA’s own rate hike timing. Thursday it’s private sector capex.<\/p>\n

Wall Street will begin the week with the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence survey and end with the Michigan Uni bi-monthly consumer sentiment survey (no difference – just semantics), along with durable goods orders and PCE inflation.<\/p>\n

The RBNZ holds a policy meeting on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

The US is closed tonight and Japan is closed on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

For upcoming earnings result dates, and a summary of results to date, please refer to the<\/em> FNArena Corporate Results Monitor<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BHP<\/td>\nBHP Group<\/td>\nDowngrade to Hold from Add<\/td>\nMorgans<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BRG<\/td>\nBreville Group<\/td>\nUpgrade to Buy from Hold<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CSL<\/td>\nCSL<\/td>\nUpgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight<\/td>\nMorgan Stanley<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\nUpgrade to Accumulate from Hold<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EDV<\/td>\nEndeavour Group<\/td>\nUpgrade to Neutral from Underperform<\/td>\nCredit Suisse<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EVN<\/td>\nEvolution Mining<\/td>\nDowngrade to Underperform from Neutral<\/td>\nCredit Suisse<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\nDowngrade to Neutral from Outperform<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\nDowngrade to Hold from Add<\/td>\nMorgans<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FBU<\/td>\nFletcher Building<\/td>\nUpgrade to Outperform from Neutral<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FMG<\/td>\nFortescue Metals<\/td>\nDowngrade to Neutral from Outperform<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GMG<\/td>\nGoodman Group<\/td>\nDowngrade to Hold from Accumulate<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GOZ<\/td>\nGrowthpoint Properties Australia<\/td>\nUpgrade to Outperform from Neutral<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NEA<\/td>\nNearmap<\/td>\nUpgrade to Neutral from Underperform<\/td>\nMacquarie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NWL<\/td>\nNetwealth Group<\/td>\nUpgrade to Buy from Neutral<\/td>\nCiti<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\nDowngrade to Accumulate from Buy<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ORG<\/td>\nOrigin Energy<\/td>\nDowngrade to Neutral from Outperform<\/td>\nCredit Suisse<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\nDowngrade to Lighten from Hold<\/td>\nOrd Minnett<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TWE<\/td>\nTreasury Wine Estates<\/td>\nUpgrade to Outperform from Neutral<\/td>\nCredit Suisse<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WES<\/td>\nWesfarmers<\/td>\nUpgrade to Neutral from Sell<\/td>\nCiti<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report<\/a>, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.<\/p>\n

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here<\/a>. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)<\/em><\/p>\n

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's – see disclaimer on the website)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":99764,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99762"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99762"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99762\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/99764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.fnarena.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}