OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

UBS rates RIO as Neutral

UBS expects Rio Tinto’s Simandou iron ore project to commence first shipments by November 2025. Unfortunately, potential delays in production scale-up are expected due to lagging mine-site development, heavy rainfall and political risks in Guinea.

Satellite imagery shows material progress across port and rail infrastructure, though construction at Rio-managed Blocks 3&4 is well behind the WCS-operated Blocks 1&2, explain the analysts.

UBS estimates just 20mt of iron ore exports from Simandou in 2026 versus the Guinean government’s 60mt forecast.

The broker notes Rio Tinto maintains its guidance for first production in 2025 and a 60mtpa ramp-up over 30 months. Within this, Rio’s attributable share is 27mtpa. Workforce growth to 18,900 from 13,300 since January is seen as supportive.

Despite confidence in project delivery, UBS remains cautious due to wet-season disruption and doubts around Guinea’s political timeline, including a delayed transition from military rule. 

A Neutral rating and $120 target are maintained.

Bell Potter rates RRL as Hold

Following a site tour of Regis Resources' Duketon and Tropicana (30% owned) gold projects, including process plants, Bell Potter notes the company is focused on underground operations as open-pit mines move closer to the end of their lives. 

The broker expects production at current or above levels until 1H29 as the share of underground increases, and beyond that, it sees production from underground only.

An update of mine life and production resulted in a shortening of open pit mine life at Duketon and Tropicana's Havana open pit to 2H2028. 

EPS forecast for FY25 cut by -6% and for FY26 by -7% on higher D&A costs. Target price rises to $4.82 from $4.72 as lower milling costs are expected to offset lower gold production, resulting in a 2% lift to NPV.

Hold retained.

UBS rates SUL as Neutral

To evaluate spending intentions of Australia's around 7m youth consumers, UBS surveyed around 1,000 Australian adults between May 15 and June 2.

The broker concludes these consumers retain a more optimistic financial outlook over the next 12 months than the wider population, underpinned by rising incomes, steady employment, and greater confidence in job security.

Overall, the analysts prefer strong operators/market share gainers exposed to the youth consumer in their categories of importance, such as apparel & footwear.

Acorrdingly, UBS has Buy ratings for Accent Group, Collins foods ((CKF)), Premier Investments, and Univeral Store ((UNI)).

For Super Retail, the broker has a Neutral rating and $13.50 target.