Australia | Jun 18 2010
This story features ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABP
The company is included in
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Next week (June 24) a whole bunch of Australian listed property trusts will pay out their half-year dividend, or their quarterly dividend in some cases. Why, I hear you ask, why would you care unless you are a long term shareholder in the likes of Abacus Property Group ((ABP)) or ING Office Fund ((IOF))?
Well, explain analysts at Citi today, historically A-REITs have held their dividends post these pay-outs, meaning investors purchasing A-REITs have been able to buy cum, sell ex dividends within
a four-day trading window.
It means investors can buy prior to these securities going ex-dividend without losing any of the original capital, and with full entitlement to distributions.
They analysts observe that during the December 09 distribution period, the A-REIT index actually gained post trading ex.
And for those investors willing to take a slightly longer term view (but only slightly), Citi analysts add that historically August tends to mark a month of clear outperformance for the sector. On Citi's calculations, A-REITs tend to outperform the broader market on average by 2.4%.
The analysts have lined up no less than 16 listed property trusts that all go ex-dividend on June 24. See the FNArena calendar for more details.
Meanwhile, quant strategists at Macquarie point out investors should not underestimate the importance of the news that News Corp is trying to buy out other shareholders in BSkyB. It means Rupert and his mates are finally ready to start using News Corp's balance sheet strength, the strategists point out.
In plain English this becomes: expect more such plans to be announced from here onwards.
Another stand out stock, offers Macquarie's quant desk, is Rio Tinto ((RIO)) – this week's update on commodity prices has again brought this to the fore with Macquarie's price target for Rio rising to $92.
The quant analysts have updated what they believe are the best ideas around in the Australian share market as at today, labelled Macquarie Marquee Ideas.
The list consists of Boart Longyear ((BLY)), Brambles ((BXB)), News Corp ((NWS)) -see above-, Qantas ((QAN)), QBE Insurance ((QBE)), Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and a switch into Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) and outside ANZ Bank ((ANZ)).
Investors should note that all the stocks mentioned are rated Outperform, with the exception of Brambles (Underperform) and ANZ (Neutral).
In further confirmation that Brambles' presence on the list is to be interpreted in negative sense, today's report mentions the following concern: “The full-year result may provide a disappointing outlook into FY11 whilst the further customer losses remain a concern”
Over at UBS, market strategists have had another look into how vulnerable FY11 earnings estimates are to potential downgrades. Their analysis shows the market is presently assuming an increase in margins, which seems but logical given two years of decline, the strategists argue.
Also, excluding resources, present market forecasts project earnings growth of around 14% for Australian companies, with UBS positioned at 12%. Hardly the stuff that reeks of exuberant optimism, argue the same strategists.
UBS strategists confirm what I have been reporting since April: market consensus estimates are now in decline, but only mildly so. They expect this trend to continue, including the mild nature of downgrades.
Report the strategists: stocks that have underperformed year to date but seen no significant changes to earnings forecasts include BHP Billiton ((BHP)), Boart Longyear, OZ Minerals ((OZL)), Fairfax Media ((FXJ)) and Incitec Pivot ((IPL)).
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABP - ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ - ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BHP - BHP GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BLY - BOART LONGYEAR GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BXB - BRAMBLES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CBA - COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NWS - NEWS CORPORATION
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OZL - OZ MINERALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QAN - QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QBE - QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO - RIO TINTO LIMITED