The Overnight Report: Peace In Our Time

This story features BEACH ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT

The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	7174.00	+ 71.00	1.00%
S&P ASX 200	7206.90	– 37.00	– 0.51%
S&P500	4471.07	+ 69.40	1.58%
Nasdaq Comp	14139.76	+ 348.84	2.53%
DJIA	34988.84	+ 422.67	1.22%
S&P500 VIX	25.70	– 2.63	– 9.28%
US 10-year yield	2.05	+ 0.05	2.45%
USD Index	95.96	– 0.37	– 0.38%
FTSE100	7608.92	+ 77.33	1.03%
DAX30	15412.71	+ 298.74	1.98%

By Greg Peel

It’s Academic

The futures had suggested a surprisingly weak -64 point drop for the ASX200 yesterday morning as compared to the S&P500 but the index managed to only fall -45 points ahead of a lunchtime rally that petered out in the afternoon.

We have since heard news of Russia pulling out troops, and this morning our futures are up 71.

Which leaves the focus on yesterday’s local events.

The minutes of the February RBA meeting revealed little beyond what Philip Lowe has already put forward in a speech and testimony to parliament in the interim. “Patience” remains the buzz-word, and the board would like to see two more CPI prints, ie March and June quarters, before deciding to move on rates.

This suggests the first hike would not come before August, although CBA economists yesterday brought their expectation forward to June, expecting a big jump in March quarter CPI. Except that the data will not be out before early June, so go figure.

On the stock market, the energy sector led the market up on Monday with a 3% gain and yesterday led it down with a -3% fall despite another rise in oil prices. The sector followed its S&P500 counterpart on Monday night. Beach Energy ((BPT)), which topped the boards post result on Monday, topped the other board yesterday in falling -10.5%.

Materials was one bright spot on Monday but turned tail yesterday by -1.0% as the iron ore price was thumped on more Beijing carry-on. This overshadowed BHP Group’s ((BHP)) record earnings and dividend release.

The standout result yesterday was that of Sims ((SGM)), which jumped 13.7% to win the day, while Seek ((SEK)) was similarly applauded (+6.1%) and JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) kicked on further from its Monday result release (+3.8%).

In between was Brambles ((BXB)) – yet to report but up 6.2% on takeover rumours.

The banks have been quite volatile lately, down -0.9% yesterday perhaps because they’d rather see a rate rise sooner rather than later.

CSL’s ((CSL)) woes continue, although last night Wall Street became excited about a clear downward trend in omicron cases, which might bode a little better for plasma collection ahead. Healthcare fell -0.6%.

Wall Street was also excited about news Russia has pulled some troops back from the border. The mood may be a little more positive on the ASX today, as the day’s list of reporting companies makes a step-jump in size.

A Glimmer

Spirits lifted ahead of the open on Wall Street last night after Putin said Moscow is ready for talks with NATO on limits to missile deployments in Europe, following a claim that Russia is withdrawing some troops in the area “having completed military exercises”.

The pullback has not been verified.

Yet it was enough to bring back the buyers, albeit if you weren’t quick you would have missed out. The Dow opened up around 400 points, and closed up around 400 points.

There was a slight wobble with half an hour to go as President Biden delivered a rousing speech that emphasised the non-verification of troop movements and warned that an attack may still yet be on the cards. The Dow slipped back -100 points briefly but late buying righted the ship.

Safe-haven markets all went into reverse as well. The US yen-year yield rose 5 points to 2.04%. The US dollar fell back -0.4%, and gold dropped twenty dollars.

The biggest move was reserved for oil prices, which fell -3%.

The move in yields occurred ahead of the release of US January wholesale inflation numbers. Following the release, they didn’t move. Nor was Wall Street put off.

Economists had forecast a 0.5% increase in the PPI in January but instead it rose 1.0%. The core rate rose 0.9%. But…and this is a big but…the annual headline PPI fell to 9.7% from 9.8%, and the core to 6.9% from 7.0%.

One swallow does not a summer make, but the US will soon be cycling the initial spike in inflation that kicked off in the March quarter last year. This should eventually bring the numbers right down, as while inflation remains elevated, it won’t be following up with the same quantum of spike two years running.

In other news, the daily omicron case-count in the US is now plunging – down over -75% from the peak. With easing geopolitical tensions providing a (tenuous) green light, last night saw all things travel-related take off, from airlines to hotels to booking agents. Airlines are reporting summer flight bookings up 200% or more from last year.

Light at the end of the tunnel? Never underestimate covid.

Commodities

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	1852.70	– 19.50	– 1.04%
Silver (oz)	23.34	– 0.50	– 2.10%
Copper (lb)	4.52	+ 0.03	0.58%
Aluminium (lb)	1.46	+ 0.04	2.48%
Lead (lb)	1.05	+ 0.01	0.80%
Nickel (lb)	10.84	+ 0.13	1.24%
Zinc (lb)	1.64	+ 0.00	0.12%
West Texas Crude	92.06	– 2.67	– 2.82%
Brent Crude	93.27	– 2.46	– 2.57%
Iron Ore (t)	136.20	– 13.20	– 8.84%

Beijing has once again come down hard on the iron ore market. Several iron ore companies were reportedly called to a meeting with the economy’s top planning body in Beijing, while the official China Daily newspaper railed against what it called “guerrilla war” by speculators in China and outside.

The attack comes following Beijing’s lifting of its steel production restrictions – the trigger behind the US$50/t bounce in the iron ore price this year. Beijing believes it should be able to boost steel production but not pay a too-high price for inputs.

Will you tell them or will I?

Recently the price tumbles sparked by such Beijing rhetoric have proved only temporary. It’s called demand/supply.

The Aussie is up 0.3% on the greenback’s fall to US$0.7150.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 71 points or 1.0%.

China will report inflation numbers today, as will the UK tonight.

The US will see data for retail sales and industrial production, and the minutes of the last Fed meeting are due.

A lot of local earnings reports today.

Note Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) goes ex-div today.

For upcoming earnings result dates, and a summary of results to date, please refer to the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor.

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
BEN	Bendigo & Adelaide Bank	Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight	Morgan Stanley
BPT	Beach Energy	Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral	Macquarie
CWN	Crown Resorts	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Credit Suisse
DOW	Downer EDI	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Credit Suisse
IAG	Insurance Australia Group	Downgrade to Hold from Add	Morgans
MGR	Mirvac Group	Upgrade to Buy from Neutral	Citi
VSL	Vulcan Steel	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Credit Suisse

For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

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