International | Sep 25 2006
By Chris Shaw
Junichiro Koizumi steps down as Japan’s prime minister this week, to be replaced by 52 year old Shinzo Abe, the nation’s youngest ever PM and the first born after World War II.
It will be a tough act to follow, as Koizumi was able to maintain his popularity among the Japanese public and his control of the various factions that make up the dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which in turn kept him in power for the maximum time allowable under party rules.
Abe’s starting position is made more difficult by the fact few people know exactly where he stands on various issues, as he has generally shied away from specifics in terms of policy. He has stated some broad goals such as increasing the level of patriotism among the Japanese and making the country a leader rather than simply a follower in international affairs, but a lack of experience may make achieving such goals more difficult if the various party factions move to undermine his authority.
The experience issue is significant, as Abe’s first cabinet post was last year when Koizumi appointed him as chief cabinet secretary. This means he must still prove himself among the party’s main factions, leaving him vulnerable to attack.
A recent survey in Japan suggests such an outcome is more than possible, as 44% of respondents in a poll expected Abe to be replaced as prime minister by the end of 2007 as the LDP is tipped to lose some seats in next year’s upper house elections.
Another survey shows only 29% of respondents consider Abe capable of exercising strong leadership, one quality never in doubt during Koizumi’s time as leader. Abe may prove more flexible though, as he has declared his intention to speak directly to Chinese leaders to improve ties between the two countries.
He has also shown a greater willingness to consider the impact on international relations of visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which houses some of Japan’s war criminals as well as its war heroes. This is especially true with respect to China and Korea, who were against dealing directly with Koizumi given his continual visits. Abe’s more considered approach is seen as likely to earn him some respect in both nations.
Continuing the reforms commenced by Koizumi is one of Abe’s primary policy objectives, as is a plan to revise Japan’s constitution and especially Article 9, which restricts the role of Japan’s military to a self-defence force. Abe has also indicated he may be willing to open Japan’s doors to more migrants, which could be a major issue in coming years given the ageing of the population and the shortage of skilled workers in fields such as nursing.
Another goal is to limit government spending, a sensible move given Japan’s debt problems. Here too Abe’s policy will put him at odds with some in his party though, as his preference for greater control over spending is at odds with the growing support for the debt and pension systems problems to be dealt with by an increase in the nation’s consumption tax, which currently stands at 5%.
Abe takes over from Koizumi on October 1st, with the world set to watch how he deals not only with economic issues but issues within his own party, which may prove more relevant to the length of his career as Japan’s newest prime minister.
