Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

This story features MACARTHUR MINERALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MIO

The company is included in

– Last week saw 14 downgrades and 9 upgrades
– Resources stocks most affected
– Second straight week downgrades outweigh upgrades
– Consensus earnings downgrades heavy as well

By Andrew Nelson

Quarterly reporting, especially from the miners, kept brokers busy with their recommendations last week. Upgrade and downgrade momentum was skewed to the downside, with 14 calls lowered versus nine recommendation increases.

Stockbrokers are using the production updates to factor in less favorable economic forecasts into their models. This, in combination with some disappointing production updates, is causing profit estimates and valuations to drop and can serve as an explanation as to why weaker recommendations are dominating the landscape.

Leading off with the upgrades, Credit Suisse lifted its recommendation on Boart Longyear ((BLY)) to Buy from Hold. It’s been a busy month for the stock, Credit Suisse’s move was the fourth upgrade over the past four weeks. The recent trends in exploration activity and commodity price movements saw the broker cut its earnings by an average of 30% going forward. Despite the cuts, the broker still thought an overly bearish outcome was factored into the price. On Credit Suisse's numbers, exploration activity would have to remain 31% below 2012 levels and drilling services margins would have to remain at trough levels to justify the current share price. The FNArena Sentiment Indicator has turned positive for the stock after this run of upgrades.

JP Morgan lifted its recommendation on Envestra ((ENV)) to Hold from Sell after having a look at returns from the network providers. Capital and operating expense assumptions were updated to align with management guidance and the broker's estimates increased 1.6% on average across FY13 to FY15. JP Morgan has strong returns expectations. Sentiment for the stock is negative.

Evolution Mining((EVN)) was boosted all the way to Buy from Sell by Credit Suisse, despite the company posting its worst production quarter since the end of 2011. Rainfall at Mt Rawdon flooded the pit and slowed down work. grades slipped at Pajingo, maintenance slowed throughput at Edna May, there was lower mine production at Cracow and on it went. There was, however, no change to FY guidance and reserves were upgraded. Rising costs are still a concern, but the share price had fallen enough for the broker to upgrade its recommendation. Sentiment for the stock is positive.

Miclyn Express Offshore ((MIO)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Macquarie after the company flagged FY13 earnings of $90-$91m and confirmed FY14 earnings forecasts around $110m. Macquarie said the company is on track for earnings growth in the medium term and believes the chance of an offer for the company is heightened. Conversely, JP Morgan downgraded MIO to Hold from Buy, noting Headland Capital and CHAMP have picked up another 16% of the company off-market at $2.20. The two companies now own 75.2% of Miclyn. The broker was very unhappy about all of this, conjecturing the pair are taking advantage of the soft share price post the recent FY13 guidance downgrade to take control of the company at the expense of minority stakeholders. Sentiment remains positive post the changes.

Citi upgraded its call on Newcrest Mining((NCM)) to Hold from Sell. The broker thought production was ok, but noted costs were higher on a number of operational issues. FY13 production guidance was maintained, with Cadia East continuing to perform in line with expectations. The broker continued to view FY13 as a transitional year, with the major capex program undertaken over the past few years finally starting to come on stream. This investment program should provide for strong cash flow generation in the longer-term, although there are still a few near-term operational risks that need to be dealt with as projects move toward full production. The prospects and recent share price weakness combined to see the recommendation upgraded. Sentiment is positive.

The broker also upgraded its call on OZ Minerals ((OZL)) to Buy from Hold, while UBS lifted to Hold from Sell. March quarter production fell short of Citi, with a continued slippage of the South Wall not expected. This has seen the company downgrade its FY13 guidance. The copper guidance was downgraded to 82-88kt from 90-95kt, while the cost guidance was also increased. The broker also trimmed its forecasts to bring them inline and lowered its price target. Despite all this, Citi said it sees compelling valuation support. March quarter production was in line with UBS and after the fall in the share price, the company is starting to look interesting from a valuation perspective. Sentiment is positive.

BA-Merrill Lynch upgraded its position on Sims Metal Management ((SMX)) all the way to Buy from Sell on the view the structural issues in the North American scrap industry are now factored into the price. While still reliant on an improving US macro environment, Sims is now BA-Merrill Lynch's top pick in the Australian steel space. Sentiment is positive.

Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH)) moved to Buy from Hold on Citi’s books. The broker said the company is doing a great job in growing its online market share despite the aggressive marketing by bookmakers. Citi also noted steady growth coming from online and notes solid leverage to continued growth in the high margin sports category. While the current FY14 PER of 18x is admittedly a bit steep, Citi expects EPS growth of 12% between FY13 and FY15, which it feels justifies the premium. The broker also noted that its current valuation doesn't account for the possibility of a settlement of the legal case against the Victorian government. A win here could add as much as 90c per share to the valuation. Sentiment for Tabcorp is positive.

The downgrades begin with CFS Retail Property Trust ((CFX)), which was cut to Hold from Buy by Macquarie. The broker said the next flow of news out of Emporium will likely be negative, while the company’s lower-quality tail also remains in focus. This adds to recent concerns about the change in definition to the payout ratio. Macquarie said it likes the stock, noting it provides a solid and defensive exposure to what is a well leased, high quality, mostly regional retail shopping centre portfolio. Also, the changes to the distributable earnings should mean a slightly higher dividend. Sentiment is negative.

Coffey International ((COF)) was dropped to Hold from Buy by UBS after the company warned the outlook had deteriorated significantly and earnings guidance for a better second half is unlikely to be met. Sentiment is neutral.

Deutsche Bank downgraded Commonwealth Property Office Fund ((CPA)) to Sell from Hold on the view the stock appears fully priced on a risk adjusted basis and noting there is over 120,000 square metres of proposed incremental supply that could significantly affect the company's ability to lease vacancies in FY15. Furthermore, Deutsche Bank thinks there are limited incremental levers to drive earnings via acquisitions. Sentiment is negative.

Crown Limited ((CWN))  was cut to Sell from Hold on Credit Suisse’s accounts, the broker citing a triple whammy of softening main floor gaming trends at Crown Melbourne, higher operating expenses at Crown Perth post capacity additions, and recent share price strength. Sentiment is positive. CS also downgraded Santos ((STO)) to Hold from Buy after 4Q production fell a bit shy because of maintenance issues and cyclones. FY13 production guidance was maintained. Revenue came in a bit short despite better prices, the broker blaming weak third party gas sales. It all added up to CS trimming its production and oil price expectations, which saw FY13-14 EPS lowered by 10% and 3.5%. Sentiment for the stock remains positive.

BA-Merrill Lynch made two more changes last week, cutting both David Jones ((DJS)) and Toll Holdings ((TOL)) to Sell from Hold. The key reasons for the downgrade on David Jones included unrealistic earnings expectations by the market in FY14, high execution risk as management implements a three-year transformation strategy, unlikely monetisation of property assets and a potential weakening macro environment in the second half of this year. The broker’s prior, more positive view was based on the inherent value of the property assets, but these appear fully valued at current prices. Recent commentary from the company suggests any potential sale of the property is unlikely, with this monetisation unlikely to occur before FY15/16. Sentiment is negative.

Toll was downgraded on the broker’s suspicion that the weak Australian economy must be having an impact. Feedback from unlisted transport companies indicated to the broker that there has been little increase in volumes since the start of 2013. The recent uptick in Australian retail sales has been driven, in part, by discretionary sectors, so Merrills is not convinced this has translated into a material volume uplift for Toll either. Sentiment is negative.

Deutsche Bank moved Decmil Group ((DCG) to Hold from Buy saying the outlook for the construction business is uncertain, given slowing iron ore capex, increased competition and LNG project delays/cancellations. Offsetting this somewhat are the accommodation earnings and the EDE acquisition, which offer strong growth potential from less cyclical energy markets. Sentiment for the stock is positive.

The broker also downgraded Dexus Property ((DXS)), going to Sell from Hold on the view that while the company’s exit from the US market may be a positive, it is hard to get excited about the redeployment of capital domestically. The company's office asset base is of the highest quality compared with peers, in the broker's view, which should allow for a re-rating of asset values in a tightening cap rate environment. Still, the broker thinks this is already captured in current prices. Sentiment remains positive.

Citi reduced its call on IOOF Holdings ((IFL)) to Hold from Buy, having noted that March quarter net flows were negative despite an overall improvement in trends. Outflows were well down on what was being seen in December, although total platform flows turned positive in the March quarter and investment management flows were finally moving in the right direction. EPS forecasts and the price target were lifted on the signs of improvement, but the recommendation was downgraded given the view that after the recent run up, now would be a good time to take some profits. Sentiment remains positive.

The broker also downgraded Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) to Hold from Buy after the company announced it would be paying a 63c fully franked special dividend and lifting its payout ratio to 80% near term. While the 63c is largely what broker was expecting, the 80% payout ratio was a surprise. The temporarily increased payout ratio told the broker that growth must be long dated, while the decision to return capital in the meantime instead of chasing low-returning growth projects was a good sign management have their heads in the game. On the other hand, with growth so obviously long dated and thus risky, the dividend should support the price, but will likely not drive it materially higher. Expected total returns this year are running at 13% after the strong share price performance on the news, but this is still short of the 15% the broker needs to see (to retain a Buy rating). Sentiment remains positive.

JP Morgan dropped DUET Group ((DUE)) to Sell from Hold after a review of network providers showed multiples were looking stretched. The broker expects DUET to grow the asset base by 1.3% per annum over the next three years, which compares with a sector average of 4.6%. The main reason for the difference is the Dampier to Bunbury Natural Gas Pipeline, which JP Morgan expects will have no earnings growth in FY13 to FY15. Sentiment for the stock is negative.

Our last downgrade comes from CIMB, with Westpac Banking Corp ((WBC)) cut to Sell from Hold on the view that shares are really starting to look expensive after the recent share price run. Broker sentiment is now negative.

There were a few significant changes to consensus price targets pushed through last week, with most of the moves to the downside. Wesfarmers ((WES)) got the biggest boost, its target up 3.6% over the week. In contrast, OZ Minerals'  target went down 12.2%, Evolution Mining slipped 9.6% and Newcrest was down 4.3%.

There were a few more significant changes to consensus EPS forecasts, with Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) lifting 17.4%, Bank of Queensland ((BOQ) saw a 12.7% increase, Arrium ((ARI)) was up 7.5% and earnings forecasts for Australian Pharmaceutical Industries ((API)) were up over 5%. The opposite was happening for miners, with numerous changes to consensus earnings in excess of 10%. The biggest was a 102.5% cut to OZ Minerals, with Imdex ((IMD)) down 23.9%, Evolution Mining was 20.6% lower and St Barbara ((SMB)) was down 19.8%.

Note: FNArena monitors eight leading stockbrokers on a daily basis and the tables below are based on data analysis from the week past concerning these eight equity market experts. The eight experts in casu are: BA-Merrill Lynch, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie, CIMB (formerly RBS) and UBS.

 

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
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