Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

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The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: BA-Merrill Lynch, CIMB, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday June 24 to Friday June 28

Total Upgrades: 14
Total Downgrades: 11

Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 40.89%; Hold 43.26%; Sell 15.86%

The number of broker recommendation changes on the Australian share market picked up a little last week. Total changes added up to twenty five, up five from the week prior. The one thing that didn’t change was the skew of sentiment, with Buys again outweighing Sells.

Overall market sentiment in terms of broker positions based on Buy, Hold and Sell calls shifted to a more neutral footing last week. The percentage of Buy calls on the market is down a tenth of a percent point (ppt), Sell calls are down almost half a ppt and Hold calls picked up by a third of a ppt.

While still prominent, mining and related stocks have moved a little to the side to share the stage with a broader spectrum of constituents. Property, infrastructure and insurers were prominent on the upgrade side of the ledger, along with a good number of material stocks. The downgrade side saw a similar mix, with the only noticeable difference being a lower percentage of miners in the mix.

Upgrades

AMP ((AMP)) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 0/7/1

The broker noted AMP suffered a particularly bad May in its Wealth Protection business, which was interesting given management said nothing at the May 9 AGM. But the problems are more structural, the broker suggested, industry wide and not easy to fix. AMP profit warnings resulted in consensus earnings forecast downgrades of around 11.5%. Management suggested the negative impact will be offset by premium increases, which the broker suggested that while necessary, it is high premiums that are part of the underlying problem. The broker reduced forecast earnings by 8%, 5% and 3% in FY13-15 and dropped its target, but the rating was upgraded given the 13% share price fall post the profit warning.

CSL ((CSL)) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 4/3/1

The broker said the performance of CSL is determined by plasma volumes set at the beginning of the financial year. UBS is expecting 8-10% demand growth in FY14 and 10% supply growth, but concurs with CSL's forecast of 12% volume growth, with risk to the upside. The broker then offset by 5% for the Alzheimer's failure and adjusted for a 10% fall in the A$. Then throw in a 10% share price correction and value has emerged in CSL, the broker believes.

Envestra ((ENV)) upgraded to Outperform from Underperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/4/0

Bond yields are rising and Envestra securities have sold down in response. What are investors missing? Macquarie analysts spelled it out: Envestra is in a similar category to APA ((APA)) in that it has a strong growth outlook, which can be sustained beyond the current regulatory horizon. In addition, noted the analysts, Envestra has strengthened the balance sheet through capital raisings and reduced the dependence on the DRP. Macquarie analysts pointed out any immediate impact of recent bond price increases should only be minor given Envestra's hedging approach. Given the heavy discount that is priced in the securities, the rating went up by two steps.

Macquarie Atlas Roads ((MQA)) upgraded to Outperform from Underperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 3/1/2

The broker noted Mac Atlas is particularly sensitive to currency movements, and the A$ has fallen against both the USD and EUR. Another positive catalyst would be if the State of Virginia decided to buy the Dulles Greenway, the broker noted. The broker maintained a 15% valuation discount on the uncertainty of sales and profit timing. But on currency moves, the target rose to $2.18 from $1.83 and the broker upgraded.

Metcash ((MTS)) upgraded to Outperform from Hold by CIMB. B/H/S: 2/5/1

CIMB highlighted Metcash shares look cheap, trading on an implied dividend yield above 7%. To underpin their view, the analysts added the probability of price inflation in grocery remains uncertain, but the signs are better than any time in the past three years. Mild upgrades were made to estimates. The increased forecasts pushed up the price target and the rating.

Newcrest ((NCM)) upgraded to Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 4/1/3

Deutsche Bank analysts yet again lowered price forecasts for commodities, noting most revised prices are now near present spot prices with the analysts forecasting mild increases over 2014. The broad exercise also led to a re-appraisal of stock preferences and valuations. Newcrest Mining was upgraded. It was a valuation thing.

Panaust ((PNA)) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by BA-Merrill Lynch. B/H/S: 6/1/1

The broker came to the conclusion that PNA is about the best way to play copper if you feel the need to. The broker cited both a solid production track record and the fact that production is expected to increase in the 2H on the back of better recoveries. At the same time, the price has come off some 30% in the last three weeks compared to peer OZ Minerals ((OZL)) at just 6% and the copper price at 8%. Multiples are also well below peers yet PNA has more certainty on production. There was only one thing to do, upgrade.

Premier Investments ((PMV)) upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Citi. B/H/S: 2/4/0

The broker reviewed its retail coverage and this saw some minor earnings upgrades for PMV, but only because of an accounting change for Breville ((BRG)). A 4% cut to expected retail earnings lead to the lower price target. On the other hand, shares had dropped some 22% over the past three months, which encouraged Citi to lift its recommendation, thinking most of the possible bad news is already in the price.

QBE Insurance Group ((QBE)) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 2/6/0

The broker increased its forecast earnings for QBE by 2% and 9% in FY14-15. While the upgrades were due in part to the lower A$ and higher US interest rates, benefits from QBE's cost-out program and a more benign claims outlook were mostly behind the broker's adjustments. The price target rises was lifted to $17.10 from $14.40, which was sufficient to prompt an upgrade.

Regis Resources ((RRL)) upgraded to Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 4/4/0

Deutsche Bank analysts yet again lowered price forecasts for commodities, noting most revised prices are now near present spot prices with the analysts forecasting mild increases over 2014. The broad exercise also led to re-appraisal of stock preferences and valuations. Regis was upgraded on valuation.

Senex Energy ((SXY)) upgraded to Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 4/1/0

Two things happened. First, the company has reported a 2.2mmcf/d flow-rate at Hornet-1 and also released its anticipated Cooper gas contingent resource estimate, which came in at 153bcf of 1C reserves, 835bcf of 2C and 2,374bcf of 3C. All that is left is for planned appraisal drilling to narrow the resource range and improve prospective well productivity. The stock has underperformed the energy Index by around 20% since mid-May and the broker was already seeing value before the news. Now Deutsche Bank sees "significant value upside". With the company’s oil business accounting for almost all of the valuation, the broker said this increasingly valuable looking Cooper option is being offered for free at current prices. With more good news expected from Hornet, a 30-well oil drilling program already underway and 43% upside to the broker’s price target, the recommendation was lifted.

The Reject Shop ((TRS)) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 1/1/1

The outlook for retailers remains challenging, suggested analysts at UBS, and The Reject Shop should thus remain a beneficiary because of its discount variety model. In addition, TRS is accelerating store roll-outs alongside incremental margin improvements, with little or no threat from competitors. How can anyone not like this company?  Healthy growth remains on the agenda post the present year, if UBS's revised forecasts can be relied upon. The analysts suggested the appreciating USD/depreciating AUD will have a limited impact only. DPS forecasts were lifted too.

Toll Holdings ((TOL)) upgraded to Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 2/4/1

The analysts cited three key reasons for the upgrade. The stronger core business has offset the weakness in Global Forwarding, positioning the company better to leverage any cyclical recovery, in their view. There's also greater discipline with cost control/reduction and a strategy for improved returns, plus the shares are presently trading at a discount to the market with only 3.4% underlying EBITA growth factored into the stockbroker's FY14 forecasts.

Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Citi. B/H/S: 3/4/1

The broker liked the company’s move to an 80% payout ratio, believing it to be sustainable at least out to 2020 and depending upon how new projects work out, and maybe even indefinitely. The broker also ran three scenarios through the machine that range from no new growth projects to having FID on all of the major projects by 2016. The best case was an 8% dividend yield, the worst 5.4% and the most likely 7.4%. With the stock also offering 20% upside to the broker's price target, the recommendation was lifted.

Downgrades

AMP ((AMP)) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by BA-Merrill Lynch and to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 0/7/1

BA-Merrill Lynch noted that for some reason Aussies are dying at a higher rate than AMP expected, and in a time of a weak economic backdrop. This impacted on the Wealth Protection business, leading to a significant profit downgrade. The broker downgraded forecast earnings by 12% and 8% in FY13-14. AMP is offering value appeal, but the fact that everything was fine at the May AGM and this downgrade has followed suggested to the broker there are broader issues at play.

Deutsche Bank noted underlying 1H profit will come in 13% below the broker, with wealth protection experience losses blamed as the culprit. Weaker wealth operating trends were also implied, with no clarity likely until the result in August. FY13 EPS was cut by 11%, with out years trimmed by 6%-8% on higher expected wealth protection claims and softer wealth operating trends. That being done, the broker thought the sell-off post announcement was very overdone, although the uncertainty about how long these pressures will last does mean the move to Neutral was warranted.

Ausdrill ((ASL)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by CIMB. B/H/S: 3/3/1

The broker took a fresh look to account for the continued softening in mining capex. FY13-15 earnings forecasts were pulled back by around 2%, with the broker noting its FY14 number was 12% below consensus. There is still valuation support and the potential for strong free cash flow, but with equipment hire and exploration drilling plans increasingly being shelved and the gold price tanking, the broker saw diminishing prospects for any share price upside. The valuation is still supportive for a more positive longer-term view, said CIMB.

Caltex ((CTX)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 0/4/3

The broker took a trip out to the Lytton Refinery in Brisbane and said the company remains at the top of its game. The Kurnell closure is also progressing well. The one problem the broker did see was lower sales levels of higher grade/higher margin fuels. Still, the impacts here were minimal. FY13 earnings were cut on unfavourable FX moves and a resultant inventory loss in 1H13. This problem will not go away quickly and is well beyond the company’s ability to control, said CS. With FX expected to remain unfavourable and economic headwinds expected to persist, the broker downgraded.

Endeavour Mining ((EVR)) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 0/1/0

The broker has lowered its gold price forecasts to US$1440/oz in FY13 from 1600, 1325 from 1625 in FY14 and 1200 from 1500 in FY15. Forecast earnings on the broker's gold stocks under coverage fell by an average 31% in 2014 and 53% in 2015. Base metal companies with gold by-products saw an offset on a lower A$ forecast. The way it ended up, Endeavour was downgraded to Neutral.

Goodman Fielder ((GFF)) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi. B/H/S: 3/3/2

It was a bit of a good news bad news scenario for GFF, the broker noted the company has successfully renewed its private label Baking contract with Coles, but also issued an FY13 earnings guidance that fell around 3% short of the broker. The FY13 earnings forecast was trimmed by 3.1% in response, the broker said one-off supply disruptions in the Asia Pacific poultry market were mostly to blame. Citi still expects better than 10% earnings growth in FY14, but the valuation is beginning to look stretched at 13.3x FY14 earnings. The recommendation was downgraded, the broker wanting to see innovation and more marketing spend to lift sales growth.

Medusa Mining ((MML)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank.B/H/S: 1/1/0

Deutsche Bank analysts yet again lowered price forecasts for commodities, noting most revised prices are now near present spot prices with the analysts forecasting mild increases over 2014. The broad exercise has also led to re-appraisal of stock preferences and valuations. Medusa Mining had the questionable honour of being the only stock that has received a recommendation downgrade as a result of the broad sector update.

Miclyn Express Offshore ((MIO)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/3/0

Macquarie analysts remained of the view that, at some point, one of the suitors will launch a full takeover bid and the price will start with a 2. However, now that the two independent directors have resigned, there are no independents left on the company's board. This was sufficient for Macquarie to pare back its rating, negating the upgrade that was put in place exactly two months ago.

Perseus Mining ((PRU)) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 5/2/0

The broker was disappointed by last week’s update from Perseus given the implied 20% drop in production from last quarter. The news posed many questions about the sustainability of production rates for Edikan going forward, said JP Morgan. The broker suspected it is all due to a drop in milled grades more so than maintenance and power outage issues. The news means costs will push higher and on JP Morgan’s numbers, which account for corporate and exploration costs, the company is looking at a breakeven result in the June quarter. Shares may have come off significantly of late, probably too much thought JP Morgan, but it was still not enough to stop the broker from downgrading.

Regis Resources ((RRL)) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 4/3/0

The broker has lowered its gold price forecasts to US$1440/oz in FY13 from 1600, 1325 from 1625 in FY14 and 1200 from 1500 in FY15. Forecast earnings on the broker's gold stocks under coverage fall by an average 31% in 2014 and 53% in 2015. Base metal companies with gold by-products see an offset on a lower A$ forecast.

Toll Holdings ((TOL)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by CIMB. B/H/S: 2/4/1

Times remain tough for Toll, but at least management is now making the hard decisions to increase productivity in global forwarding rather than growth, suggested analysts at CIMB. Their view is that Toll Holdings will prove to be a profitable investment for investors with a horizon of at least 12 months, preferably longer. The price target has fallen to $5.47 from $5.52 and the rating dropped because the share price has had quite a good run of late. The key characteristic (and what should attract investors) is the company's exposure to an improvement in the broader domestic economy, pointed out the analysts.

Significant consensus target price and earnings forecast changes tabled below.

 

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
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