Daily Market Reports | Feb 12 2021
This story features AMP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight (Mar) | 6777.00 | – 2.00 | – 0.03% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 6850.10 | – 6.80 | – 0.10% |
| S&P500 | 3916.38 | + 6.50 | 0.17% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 14025.77 | + 53.24 | 0.38% |
| DJIA | 31430.70 | – 7.10 | – 0.02% |
| S&P500 VIX | 21.25 | – 0.74 | – 3.37% |
| US 10-year yield | 1.16 | + 0.03 | 2.21% |
| USD Index | 90.39 | – 0.04 | – 0.04% |
| FTSE100 | 6528.72 | + 4.36 | 0.07% |
| DAX30 | 14040.91 | + 107.94 | 0.77% |
By Greg Peel
Thanks but no thanks
Ares Management has decided it’s no longer interested in acquiring AMP ((AMP)). This was announced along with AMP’s -30% drop in full year profit, which missed forecasts. The stock fell -11.0% to be the worst index performer yesterday.
The days of wealth management behemoths are gone.
Earnings were the primary focus on the ASX yesterday with Wall Street again not doing much. The ASX200 didn’t do much either as a whole, trading in an up 20, down -20 range before closing basically flat.
Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) was the index winner on the day after beating forecasts and increasing its dividend payout policy. It rose 4.0%.
Dividends were also the driver of a 2.5% gain for Telstra ((TLS)), simply by paying out as expected (fears unfounded). The telco also announced a plan to take back its branded stores from licencees, and noted its business trifurcation process should be complete by the end of this year.
One of those licencees is, or was, Vita Group ((VTG)), which holds the licence on around a third of Telstra stores. That stock fell -27% yesterday. Around half of stores are licenced to independents.
Nearmap ((NEA)) has come under attack from a US short seller who has claimed a rival US aerial photography company has superior technology and that management is overstating its US numbers. The stock fell -7.3%.
Telcos were the best performing sector on the day thanks to Telstra, rising 0.9%. Materials rose 0.6% on across-the-board strong commodity prices. The banks and healthcare sat it out.
The consumer sectors were hit for no apparent reason, other than they have had a very solid run this year. Discretionary fell -0.6% and staples -1.0%.
Technology was worst performer (-2.0%), led down by Afterpay ((APT)) after its jump up the day before. Afterpay is now to the technology sector as Telstra is to telcos – most of it.
Another dull session on Wall Street has our futures down -2 this morning, so it will no doubt be another day locally in which earnings results will be the only focus.
That was quick
Tilray fell -47% last night. That means if you bought the cannabis stock yesterday, when it rallied 45%, you’re already underwater.
Some pot stocks fell even harder last night. Having had the best day ever on Wednesday, collectively, pot stocks had their worst day ever on Thursday.
Meanwhile, a small but angry group of the Reddit crowd are holding an ongoing protest outside Robinhood’s headquarters in California. They might now be joined by another group, who can’t stop giggling.
The cannabis trade was about the only point of interest in another lacklustre session on Wall Street, which was a mirror of the lacklustre session on Wednesday night in which it was the Dow that had outperformed, slightly, and the Nasdaq that had underperformed. Last night it was the other way around as the FANGs came back, which is likely linked to the rise and fall of Tilray and co.
Last week saw 793,000 Americans file for unemployment. This was down from 812,000 the week before, but ahead of 760,000 forecasts. Those still on the dole fell by -145,000 but the total is still 4.5 million. And that’s just the unemployed who bother trying to find work. The full number is estimated to be around 11 million.
While the figures are sobering for Wall Street, they also underscore Biden’s push to get his relief package through. Given he can do so without bipartisan support, ex the minimum wage increase, it’s just a matter of going through the time-consuming motions.
Wall Street appears to have hit an exhaustion point in the rally from the election (when vaccines were also first revealed) while at the same time having little reason to correct.
The earnings result run-rate continues to hold above 80% beats, for a whopping average 17% above-forecast earnings. But this has not much excited Wall Street, given such upside, and more, was already priced in.
Perhaps the impeachment trial is also a point of distraction, although (a) it is conducted in the evenings and (b) the result is already known. For fear of retribution from the Trump Army, the vast majority of Republican senators will vote to acquit.
Something will ultimately give on Wall Street, but what that might be is not yet clear.
Commodities
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 1823.60 | – 18.00 | – 0.98% |
| Silver (oz) | 26.96 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Copper (lb) | 3.74 | + 0.01 | 0.34% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 0.94 | + 0.00 | 0.19% |
| Lead (lb) | 0.96 | + 0.01 | 0.82% |
| Nickel (lb) | 8.40 | – 0.03 | – 0.40% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.25 | + 0.03 | 2.08% |
| West Texas Crude | 57.90 | – 0.63 | – 1.08% |
| Brent Crude | 60.81 | – 0.49 | – 0.80% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 165.95 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
China is now on its week-long New Year break so base metal markets will go quiet and iron ore will come to a standstill.
Oil prices have finally dipped back, surprising no one after a lengthy run up.
I don’t know why the Aussie is so volatile at present. Is Reddit in there? The Aussie is up 0.4% at US$0.7753 with the US dollar again barely changed.
Today
Looks like we’re in for another exciting day with the SPI Overnight closing down -2 points.
Earnings results will again be the in the spotlight.
FNArena's Corporate Results Monitor is updated daily throughout the month: https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ASX | ASX Ltd | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
| CGF | Challenger | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie | ||
| CIM | Cimic Group | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
| COH | Cochlear | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
| CWN | Crown Resorts | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| DRR | DETERRA ROYALTIES | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| GEM | G8 Education | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Macquarie |
| GXY | Galaxy Resources | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
| HVN | Harvey Norman Holdings | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| IAG | Insurance Australia | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| NST | Northern Star | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
| SUN | Suncorp | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's – see disclaimer on the website)
All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.
Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com
FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On
Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms
CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP - AMP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NCM - NEWCREST MINING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TLS - TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VTG - VITA GROUP LIMITED