Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AMA as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter believes AMA Group refrained from FY25 guidance at 1H25 result because repair volumes were weak in 2Q in Victoria, and it wanted to see if there was any rebound in 3Q.

Based on anecdotal volumes, the broker is positive volumes rebounded in Victoria and other states, suggesting the company could upgrade guidance for FY25.

The guidance could come as early as the 3Q update in April or May, the broker notes.

Target price of 8c and Buy rating are retained.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.032
If AMA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -

Morgans reckons a common theme from recent big bank quarterlies was a weakening in risk-weighted assets which could reduce buyback or need for more regulatory capital to meet CET1 requirements.

The broker notes credit growth has accelerated according to RBA data, with 6.5% y/y rise in January from 4.9%.

ANZ Bank recorded solid net loan growth in Q1 and a rise in customer deposits but the CET1 capital ratio of 11.5% was affected by an increase in the floor for regulatory capital. The broker believes the higher RWA reduces buyback potential.

The broker made minor changes to EPS forecasts and raised the FY26 dividend forecast, assuming a higher payout ratio of 70%.

Target price lifts to $26.66 from $26.34, and rating upgraded to Hold from Reduce. At current price, the broker estimate the stock is trading at a 5.8% cash yield (70% franked).

Target price is $26.66 Current Price is $28.72 Difference: minus $2.06 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.24, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Hold (3) -

Morgans reckons a common theme from recent big bank quarterlies was a weakening in risk-weighted assets which could reduce buyback or need for more regulatory capital to meet CET1 requirements.

The broker notes system credit growth accelerated according to RBA data, with a 6.5% y/y rise in January from 4.9%, and housing credit is now growing in line with the trend, based on APRA data.

The broker lowered the Bank of Queensland's interest income forecasts on lower loan growth and its liquids asset base. The FY25 and FY26 EPS and DPS forecasts were cut by -3% and -4% respectively.

Target price is $7.14 (was $6.03 in December). Rating retained at Hold.

Target price is $7.14 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $0.69
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CAR as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett has upgraded Car Group to Buy from Hold on valuation grounds. No change to the $39 target price.

The broker notes one of the reasons for the -15% decline in share price since early February was expectations of a soft 2H for recreational vehicle sales. But its recent calls with US-based dealers indicated a modest recovery in sales since January.

Overall, the broker expects the impact of tariffs on sales to be modest and higher used car sales to offset some of the declines.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $35.04 Difference: $3.96
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.63, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Reduce (5) -

Morgans reckons a common theme from recent big bank quarterlies was a weakening in risk-weighted assets which could reduce buyback or need for more regulatory capital to meet CET1 requirements.

The broker notes system credit growth has accelerated according to RBA data and housing credit is growing in line with trend, based on APRA data.

Commbank's housing credit is growing above the system rate, the broker notes.

The broker marginally reduced the net interest margin for FY25, and lowered FY26 forecast by -1%. FY26 EPS and dividend forecasts reduced by -1% on earnings changes.

The broker believes potential medium-term returns are too compressed at current prices considering the bank's earnings and dividend outlook and elevated trading multiples.

The analyst also notes the surprisingly strong share price rally has been partly driven by foreign fund manager buying. Target price cut to $101 from $102. Rating stays at Reduce.

Target price is $101.00 Current Price is $148.14 Difference: minus $47.14 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.29, suggesting downside of -27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Accumulate (2) -

Goodman Group's development update on data centre projects revealed mixed signals, according to Ord Minnett, with lower completion volumes in the short term despite two sites close to vertical construction.

The broker has incorporated higher capital cost in its forecasts on increased project risks and downgraded the operating EPS estimates by -1-2% for FY25-27.

Target price drops to $33.50 from $37.00. Accumulate rating maintained as operating EPS, despite the downgrade, is expected to grow at a compounded annual rate of 10.8% over the next five years.

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $30.72 Difference: $2.78
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.84, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights funds under management for February rose 0.1% month-on-month for GQG Partners, with positive net inflows of US$1.1bn versus a monthly average of US$1.6bn.

The analyst notes market movements and performance as a headwind of around -US$1bn, including weakness in emerging markets.

Macquarie makes minor changes to EPS forecasts, lowering 2025 by -1% and raising 2026 by 0.2%.

The Outperform rating and $3 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.82
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes GQG Partners' February net inflows of $1.1bn beat its forecast of $0.8bn but was lower sequentially from January's $1.7bn.

More importantly, the broker notes the strategy mix was lower with higher US equity inflows offsetting outflows in the core emerging markets strategy which will impact revenue accretion.

The broker also notes softness in the key sub-advised product (Goldman Sachs GQG Partners International Opportunities Fund) has persisted after accounting for the seasonal trends in Dec/Jan.

No change to the $2.55 target price and Neutral rating.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.37
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JDO as Hold (3) -

Morgans reckons a common theme from recent big bank quarterlies was a weakening in risk-weighted assets which could reduce buyback or need for more regulatory capital to meet CET1 requirements.

The broker notes system credit growth accelerated according to RBA data, with a 6.5% y/y rise in January from 4.9%, and housing credit is now growing in line with the trend, based on APRA data.

No change to Judo Capital's forecasts. Target price of $2.08 and Hold rating are unchanged.

Target price is $2.08 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.15
If JDO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Macquarie Group is hosting its 2025 EMEA region investor tour over Monday to Thursday this week in Paris and London.

At the start of the tour, management noted net operating income in Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) continues to grow significantly, but is now mainly due to higher investment income, not specifically green investments.

The noted delay in sale for Cera solar aligns with investor fears around the group's exposure to renewable energy investments, suggest the analysts.

Listed renewable energy stocks have de-rated significantly from a price earnings perspective in the past few months, highlights Morgan Stanley

Overall FY25 guidance was left unchanged.

The Overweight rating and $253 target are retained. The industry view remains In-Line.

Target price is $253.00 Current Price is $208.29 Difference: $44.71
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $225.71, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Reduce (5) -

Morgans reckons a common theme from recent big bank quarterlies was a weakening in risk-weighted assets which could reduce buyback or need for more regulatory capital to meet CET1 requirements.

The broker notes credit growth has accelerated according to RBA data, with 6.5% y/y rise in January from 4.9%, and housing credit is now growing in line with the trend, based on APRA data.

National Australia Bank's housing credit is growing below the system rate, the broker notes.

The broker highlights the bank's operating profit growth was stronger than expected in 1Q25 but credit impairment was higher, along with higher credit-RWA intensity.

The analyst raised the operating revenue forecast for FY25 but also increased credit impairment forecast.

The broker made minor changes to the EPS forecasts but the DCF-based valuation is lower on increased CET1 investment to meet higher RWA. 

Target price cut to $29.07 from $29.29. Reduce maintained.

Target price is $29.07 Current Price is $34.07 Difference: minus $5 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.08, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OBM as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (-1) -

Macquarie initiates coverage of Ora Banda Mining, a WA gold miner with 100% ownership of the Davyhurst gold project, which has transitioned from open pit to underground, with a Neutral rating and a $1 target price.

The analyst expects FY25 production to increase 122% to 150kozpa from FY24 but questions the sustainability of these production levels over a decade without major drilling success across assets that have so far been "starved" of capex.

Macquarie suggests Ora Banda shareholders have significantly benefited from Creagh's appointment as MD in September 2022, which underpinned the pivot to underground mining and the uplift in production.

The share price has risen 18x since his appointment, including gains from the higher gold price. At current levels, Macquarie believes the stock is fully valued.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: minus $0.045 (current price is over target).
If OBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PFP as Overweight (1) -

Propel Funeral Partners is highlighted as one of Morgan Stanley's key small/mid-cap ideas given conviction on earnings and the positive outlook post a volatile reporting season.

This volatility suggests to the broker an exposure like Propel may be sought for its structural growth, exposure to non-discretionary spend, and capacity to raise prices.

It's also thought the share price decline of nearly -11% year-to-date provides an attractive entry point.

Further, the analysts highlight management aims to spend around -$40m per year on M&A, which is typically EPS accretive.

Overweight. Target $6.30. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $1.11
If PFP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie explains St. Barbara has downgraded its FY25 production guidance by -14%, while all-in-sustaining-cost guidance has increased by 19%, which the broker states was not "unexpected."

The production downgrade at Simberi reflects challenges in achieving grades in the current half-year at two locations.

Revised guidance stands at 55-60koz versus 65-70koz previously, with all-in-sustaining costs of $3,900-$4,000 against the former guidance of $3,200-$3,600, the analyst details.

Macquarie raises its cost assumptions by 6%, lowering the forecast FY25 EPS by -19%.

The broker is currently on research restriction.

Current Price is $0.22. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TUA as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Tuas to report better-than-expected first-half earnings on March 19, driven by mobile and broadband growth.

The broker anticipates higher broadband costs, including subsidies from Singapore's Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA) grant program, to support the transition of more customers to 10Gbps plans.

Margins for 1H25 are likely to surprise to the upside, and Goose App downloads (global travel eSIM) are tracking above 5,000, according to Citi's innovation lab.

The stock remains Buy-rated with a $7.10 target price.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.33 Difference: $0.77
If TUA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -

Morgans reckons a common theme from recent big bank quarterlies was a weakening in risk-weighted assets which could reduce buyback or need for more regulatory capital to meet CET1 requirements.

The broker notes system credit growth accelerated according to RBA data, with a 6.5% y/y rise in January from 4.9%, and housing credit is now growing in line with the trend, based on APRA data.

Westpac's housing credit is growing below the system rate but the bank is leading the sector's strong lending growth to non-financial businesses, the broker notes.

The broker highlights the bank's net profit rose 3% in 1Q vs 2H24 as higher revenue offset costs and impairment charges were subdued. The bank's RWA increase was partly due to higher IRRBB.

The analyst cut FY25-27 EPS forecasts mainly on lower net interest margins and lifted RWA forecasts by 3-6%. The decline in DCF-based valuation on increased CET1 investment was offset by higher assumed terminal returns.

Target price rises to $27.85 from $27.77. Rating upgraded to Hold from Reduce.

Target price is $27.85 Current Price is $30.40 Difference: minus $2.55 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.72, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WEB as Neutral (3) -

Due to recent share price volatility, Citi believes an "opportunity" in Web Travel may be emerging.

Looking at the offshore reporting season, the broker is assessing factors that could make it more optimistic about the stock, including strength in the hotel sector in 4Q 2025 and a shift in growth focus to Europe.

The analyst notes revenue margins remain under pressure, hence the Neutral, High Risk rating.

Target price slips to $5.55 from $5.65.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: $0.84
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources