Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates ADH as Buy (1) -

Adairs' 1H25 revenue growth of 6.6% was a good improvement from the last trading update in October and ahead of Bell Potter, however slightly below consensus. The outperformance was driven by the core Adairs brand.

Furniture remained challenged with the dominant exposure to Victoria.

The broker factors in the minor beat led by Adairs and Mocka but revises down Furniture revenue assumptions driven by a lower revenue per sqm and a reduction in the growth of new stores in FY26-29.

Bell Potter cuts its target to $2.65 from $2.85 driven by near term earnings downgrades, while the target PE multiple is unchanged at 12.5x. 

The broker continues to see tailwinds led by the core Adairs brand and improvements from the ongoing store refresh/product initiatives together with some catalysts related to expansion in Furniture from FY26 onwards. Buy retained.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.28
If ADH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AEL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Amplitude Energy reported 1H25 underlying earnings of $93m, ahead of Bell Potter's $85m estimate. The company is negotiating terms with OG Energy regarding participation in the three-well East Coast Supply Project program.

The ECSP drill program and its capital costs are yet to be guided, and the development assumes exploration success.

However, the targets are considered low risk prospects, Amplitude’s balance sheet is increasingly supportive and JV alignment is becoming clearer, the broker notes. 

Bell Potter has upgraded to Buy from Hold in recognition of de-risking the ECSP’s value over the next 12 months. Target rises to 26c from 22c.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.055
If AEL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGI as Outperform (1) -

Ainsworth Game Technology’s 2024 result was in line with guidance, notes Macquarie, with pre-tax profit (PBT) of $23m excluding currency impacts, down -44% year-on-year.

Sequential revenue improved by 18%, supported by the launch of the A-Star Raptor cabinet and strong demand in Latin America, explains the analyst.

Product development investment increased to -$50m annually, up 16% from pre-covid levels, reflecting confidence in higher future volumes, suggests the broker.

Macquarie raises the target price to 90c from 85c and retains a Neutral rating, citing the need for sustained sales growth before turning more positive.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.095
If AGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AHL as Buy (1) -

Adrad's 1H25 revenue was 4% above Bell Potter but pro forma earnings were -16% below.

The miss was driven by several factors including a negative FX impact from purchases, a customer acquisition program and renegotiation of a key OEM contract.

AGM guidance of “full year FY25 revenue and earnings expected to track above FY24, albeit weighted to 2H25” was not reiterated, rather management said it's “confident of achieving continued revenue growth”. 

Adrad did also mention the order book in the HTS business is strong and includes two prototype Alufin radiator units.

Target falls to $1.05 from $1.12, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.36
If AHL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AHL as Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Add (1) -

Morgans notes Adrad’s 1H25 result was weaker than expected, with both revenue and EBITDA missing its forecast. EBITDA margin was down -290bps to 10.5% but cash conversion was strong at 123% vs 105% the year before.

Overall, earnings for both divisions were lower despite higher revenue. The company expects revenue growth in 2H but no longer provided guidance for earnings growth.

The broker is forecasting FY25 revenue growth of 7% to $152.8m but -5% EBITDA decline to $17.2m.

Target price cut to $0.85 from $1.10. The broker believes earnings may be volatile in the short term and therefore has downgraded to Speculative Buy from Add for more risk-tolerant investors.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.16
If AHL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Ampol’s second-half earnings (EBITDA) of $1,199m declined -32% year-on-year, with refining earnings (EBIT) at -$42m due to weaker margins, explains Macquarie.

Convenience Retail EBIT remained stable at $357m, supported by strong premium fuel penetration despite lower base-grade sales, observes the analyst.

Management re-affirmed guidance, with 2025 capital expenditure expected at -$600m and de-gearing anticipated in the second half as Ultra Low Sulfur Fuels project costs stabilise.

Macquarie lowers its target price to $29.45 from $30.65. Despite the weak 2024 result, the broker upgrades the rating to Outperform from Neutral, citing improving refining margins and strong retail execution.

Target price is $29.45 Current Price is $26.13 Difference: $3.32
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.18, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APA as Hold (3) -

APA Group's 1H25 EBITDA of $1.015bn beat Morgans' forecast of $987m, mainly due to some one-offs like insurance recovery and lease restructure.

The company maintained FY25 guidance at $1.960-2.02bn, and the broker upgraded its forecast to the top end of the range.

The company also reaffirmed FY25 dividend guidance at 57c, implying sub-inflation growth of 1.8%. Tax payments are expected to ramp up, which the broker notes is bad for valuation, dividend growth and credit metrics, but good for increased dividend franking.

The broker slightly upgraded its EBITDA, free cash flow and dividend forecasts over FY25-29. Target price lifts to $7.21 from $7.13, and Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $7.21 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APA as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights APA Group’s 1H25 operating earnings slightly beat consensus, easing investor concerns about a potential capital raise.

The broker notes APA reaffirmed FY25 guidance for earnings and distributions, with management confident the balance sheet can support capex while remaining within credit rating thresholds.

The analyst estimates excess balance sheet capacity above $500m by FY27, planning asset recycling, partnerships, and cost cuts to drive growth.

A five-year east coast gas grid expansion is expected to increase gas flow from northern to southern markets by 24% and boost storage.

Ord Minnett sees APA’s organic growth pipeline exceeding $6bn over the next decade, mitigating potential earnings loss from the Wallumbilla–Gladstone pipeline deal expiring in 2035.

APA is forecast deliver an 8%-plus distribution yield out to FY30, with payouts potentially growing from FY27. Buy rating maintained, target price $8.60.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: $0.9
If APA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

AUB Group’s first-half revenue exceeded consensus by 4%, with earnings (EBIT) in line despite a one-off cost from Tysers bonuses, explains Macquarie.

Commission and fee income per client grew by 9.2% in Australia and 9.5% in New Zealand, while leverage increased to 2.15x following a $250m debt raise to fund the Tysers earn-out, observes the broker.

Management reaffirmed FY25 profit guidance of between $190m-$200m, reflecting 11%-17% growth, highlights the analyst.

Macquarie raises the target price to $35.45 from $34.20 and retains an Outperform rating, citing multiple growth drivers and improving industry conditions.

Target price is $35.45 Current Price is $29.50 Difference: $5.95
If AUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.58, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AUB as Overweight (1) -

AUB Group posted first half results that were in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. The company has reiterated underlying FY25 net profit growth guidance of 11-17%.

The broker believes the stock offers compelling value given its prospects for growth and more clarity on Tysers, and dismisses residual concerns.

The stock has de-rated over the past 12 months and Morgan Stanley suspects this is largely amid concerns about slowing pricing, questions over Tysers and broader concerns about competition reform.

Overweight rating. Target price rises to $38.00 from $37.05. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $29.50 Difference: $8.5
If AUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.58, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AUB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights AUB Group's 1H25 result was in line with expectations, with net profit after tax of $79.3m, up 13%.

Management's FY25 profit after tax guidance remains at $190m–$200m, implying a 7% upgrade after adjusting for one-off costs. The broker notes strong balance sheet flexibility, with excess cash and undrawn debt at $360m post a $250m debt raise.

The broker highlights the company has benefited from from cost discipline and scale synergies supporting earnings resilience despite a slowing premium cycle. The UK business performed well, though regulatory scrutiny is increasing.

Ord Minnett maintains FY25 forecasts, lifting FY26/FY27 profit after tax estimates by 4%. Target is reduced to $35.58, reflecting lower market multiples and increased debt. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $35.58 Current Price is $29.50 Difference: $6.08
If AUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.58, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AUB as Neutral (3) -

Further to the first half results from AUB Group, where the underlying performance was in line, UBS highlights the negative aspect of Tysers' bonus and team departure which offsets the stronger organic trends.

The unchanged guidance now implies an acceleration of organic profit growth in the second half towards 12%, yet the broker remains cautious as cyclical headwinds build. 

Neutral rating with a $33.30 target.

Target price is $33.30 Current Price is $29.50 Difference: $3.8
If AUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.58, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVJ as Hold (3) -

Challenging conditions led AV Jennings to report 1H25 profit -37% below Bell Potter and no dividend compared to 0.45c expectation. The operational performance nonetheless remains secondary to ongoing M&A developments, with two bidders currently in play.

A slight increase in AV Jennings' net tangible assets means that most recent take-private bid of 70c is now at a -14.6% discount to book value, Bell Potter notes. Additionally, book value likely sits at a further -10% discount to the mark-to-market value of the book.

The broker's target remains unchanged at $0.70 on bid-based price methodology. Bell Potter appreciates the possibility for a competing bid but equally notes that the offers and non-binding and may not result in a positive outcome.

Hold retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.035
If AVJ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Citi's first take on Bapcor’s 1H25 underlying NPAT of $45.5m, highlights the company meeting consensus expectations, while statutory NPAT of $40.8m missed by -9%. The broker notes an 8cps dividend was declared, above the 7.7cps consensus.

Trade 1H25 EBITDA grew 12% on 2% revenue growth, driven by cost reductions. NZ EBITDA rose 3% despite a -2% revenue decline. Cash conversion was strong at 108.5% vs. 62.4% in 1H24.

Citi notes retail EBITDA fell -26% on flat revenue due to rising ad spend and opex. Specialist Wholesale EBITDA declined -6%, with network locations shrinking from 157 to 142. Corporate costs rose 43%, driven by IT investment.

Sales for early 2H25 are up 0.5%, trailing the 2.9% consensus, with trade up 3.7%. Bapcor maintains its -$20m–$30m cost-out target.

Citi remains cautious, citing ongoing challenges and near-term uncertainty. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $5.17 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $0.68
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CIP as Buy (1) -

Centuria Industrial REIT announced 1H25 funds from operations of 8.9c, slightly below Bell Potter's estimate. FY25 guidance was reiterated for FFO of 17.5c (Bell Potter 17.6c), and a dividend of 16.3c.

Portfolio occupancy decreased slightly to 96.6% but remains above structural vacancy which should continue to support above trend rental growth, the broker suggests.

Group yields on cost of 6.5% targeted which appears the best use of capital ahead given limited capital transfer opportunities, Bell Potter believes. 

At a -22% discount to net tangible asset valuation the broker thinks Centuria Industrial presents a strong risk-adjusted opportunity.

Target rises to $3.35 from $3.25, Buy retained.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.33
If CIP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIP as Outperform (1) -

Centuria Industrial REIT’s first half funds from operations (FFO) of 8.9c was in line with Macquarie's forecast, while full-year guidance was re-affirmed at 17.5c, reflecting 1.7% growth.

FY25 guidance for distribution per unit of 16.3c for FY25 represents a 3.1% increase, though second-half FFO is expected to decline by -3.4% due to downtime from lease expiries and higher interest costs, explains the analyst.

The REIT's portfolio remains -20%-25% under-rented, with management targeting 25% re-leasing spreads and -$100m in annual development commencements, observes the broker.

Macquarie raises the target price to $3.34 from $3.32 and retains an Outperform rating, citing limited downside risk and strong leasing momentum.

Target price is $3.34 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.32
If CIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CIP as Equal-weight (3) -

Centuria Industrial REIT posted first half earnings (FFO) of 8.9 cents, in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast. Guidance has been reiterated for FY25 FFO of 17.5 cents.

Key to the results was the fall in occupancy to 96.6% from 97.2% in September 2024, and the broker suspects a slowdown in the December quarter with deals done only attracting spreads of around 30%.

Still, Morgan Stanley suggests it would be premature to call out any trends. Equal-weight rating and $3.31 target retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $3.31 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.29
If CIP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CIP as Buy (1) -

Further to the first half results from Centuria Industrial REIT, UBS highlights a key positive in the $200m hedging that was executed. While occupancy was slightly softer at 96.6%, this reflects structural rather than temporary vacancy, the broker adds.

UBS calculates the stock as traded at an average discount to NTA of -21% over the last three years as debt cost headwinds overshadowed sound fundamentals.

With increased hedging and a turning cycle, these headwinds should subside and a Buy rating is maintained. Target edges up to $3.82 from $3.80.

Target price is $3.82 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.8
If CIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Coronado Global Resources' 2024 earnings (EBITDA) of US$115m missed the consensus estimate by -28%, impacted by higher logistical costs and weaker pricing, explains Macquarie.

A net loss of -US$109m, included -US$10.6m in asset impairments. 2025 saleable coal production guidance of 16-18mt aligns with the consensus forecast, highlights the broker.

Higher capital expenditure guidance of -US$230m-$270m exceeded the analyst's forecast, adding near-term cost pressure, despite expected productivity gains.

Macquarie lowers the target price to 80c from $1.00 and retains an Outperform rating, citing long-term upside from planned expansions at the Buchanan and Mammoth operations.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.235
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.92, suggesting upside of 67.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTT as Sell (5) -

Citi highlights Cettire's 1H25 sales slightly beat expectations but were driven by heavy discounting, with gross margin down -520bps year-on-year and -100bps below consensus.

The broker notes US revenue growth slowed sharply, while Australian revenue declined for the first time.

Adjusted EBITDA missed consensus by -4.5%, while statutory EBITDA fell -32% short at $8.5m vs. $12.6m expected. Costs, excluding marketing, rose 18% year-on-year, though average order value (AOV) grew 4%.

Citi notes no quantitative update was provided, with Q3 expected to remain challenging. The broker and consensus expect 12% top-line growth for 2H25.

Luxury market weakness and trade tensions continue to pressure Cettire’s outlook, weighing on sentiment, the broker concludes.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.125
If CTT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYC as Buy (1) -

Cyclopharm delivered 2024 revenues up 3% on 2023, including a much stronger 2H24 in which revenues increased by 39% versus the weak prior period result, Bell Potter comments.

Progress is slower than anticipated, the broker highlights, while adding the company has hired additional Business Development personnel to aggressively pursue the multitude of opportunities.

Bell Potter remains confident in management's execution abilities. In 2H24 the installed base increased from 6 devices to 17 with a further 21 scheduled for installation.

The latter numbers compare to signed contracts for 65 devices as at 27 August 2024, hence some 50% of those devices will be installed within weeks, the broker notes.

Cyclopharm has inventory on hand to meet demand and reimbursement is in place with hospitals reporting no issue being paid by Medicare or private payers.

Bell Potter continues to expect the company will be profitable in FY26 and that it has sufficient cash to reach that point. Buy and $2.70 target retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $1.18
If CYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DBI as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure reported earnings (EBITDA) that met consensus expectations.

Citi highlights funds from operations rose 11% on the back of a 4% increase in the terminal infrastructure charge (TIC), showcasing the improvement in operating leverage.

The broker points to a resulting upgrade in the distribution to 23 cents per security from 22.5 cents, a rise of 7% and at the upper end of the historical growth range of 3%-6% per annum, the analyst explains.

Dalrymple has committed to -$394m in Non-Expansionary Capital Expenditure (NECAP) projects, including the construction of a new shiploader (SL1A) and a new reclaimer (RL4), which should further increase the upside to the TIC, the broker details.

Remain Buy rated, and target price rises to $4.15.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: $0.38
If DBI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DBI as Add (1) -

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's 2H24 EBITDA beat Morgans' forecast by 1% on new non-Terminal Infrastructure Charge (TIC) revenue and lower costs. TIC revenue rose 4% and EBITDA margin increased 60bps to 94.6%.

The broker notes the key drivers of the TIC increase on 1 July are the March CPI and commissioning of non-expansionary capex projects. The analyst is forecasting revenue from this spend to add $50m to EBITDA by 2027/28, up 18% vs FY24.

The broker upgraded FY25-27 dividend forecasts by 4-6% following an upgrade in the company's guidance. Overall, the broker upgraded FY25-27 EBITDA forecasts by 1% 

Target price rises to $4.13 from $3.50. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $4.13 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: $0.36
If DBI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Domain Holdings Australia’s 1H25 earnings beat consensus, supported by tight cost control according to Ord Minnett. The broker notes board member Greg Ellis has been appointed interim CEO following Jason Pellegrino’s retirement.

US-based CoStar has launched a $4.20 per share bid, which could reshape the Australian property advertising market. Nine Entertainment ((NEC)), Domain’s majority owner, is expected to reject the initial bid but may consider a higher offer.

Ord Minnett raises its FY25 EPS forecast by 20% and by 15% for FY26/27, reflecting stronger TV division revenue.

Price target lifts to $4.20 from $3.25, aligning with CoStar’s bid, though the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy due to valuation.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting downside of -22.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi flags 1H25 net profit after tax was broadly in line with expectations for Domino's Pizza Enterprises, with the result largely pre-reported on Feb 7.

The analysts point to concerns over "subdued" same-store sales growth and franchisee profitability, which sits well below the target of $130k for new store openings. Issues in France continue, which were highlighted in May 2024.

A turnaround in the company is constrained by high leverage, and cost savings are harder than expected to achieve.

Citi retains a cautious view on the stock with a Neutral rating. The target price declines to $31.82 from $37.34.

Target price is $31.82 Current Price is $28.89 Difference: $2.93
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.62, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises' first-half earnings (EBITDA) were -4% below Macquarie's expectation, with franchisee profitability remaining under pressure and like-for-like sales growth of 1.5%.

Management reaffirmed its long-term target of 10%-12% franchisee margins, though current franchisee earnings (EBITDA) remain -30% below target levels, explains the analyst.

While cost efficiencies of -$34m have been identified by management, the broker notes the timing of improvements in profitability remains uncertain.

Macquarie lowers the target price to $30.50 from $35.10 and retains a Neutral rating, citing a slow turnaround and the need for further strategic execution.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $28.89 Difference: $1.61
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.62, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DMP as Hold (3) -

Much of Domino's Pizza's 1H25 result was pre-reported but new information was on the negative side, Morgans highlights. Franchisee profitability was flat in the 12-month period to 1H25 compared with six months agao, with weak growth in average store sales and stable margins.

Over the 12-month period, the company's network EBITDA margin was at 19% compared to targeted level of 25%. The broker's best estimate is for margin to improve to 22-23% by FY28, based on the company's expected network of 3,550 stores at end-FY25, and 3% network sales.

Same-store sales growth also weakened in the first seven weeks of 2H to 1.5% vs 4.3% in the first five weeks, with the company noting momentum in Japan is key to achieve existing FY25 guidance.

The analyst lowered FY25-27 underlying EBIT forecasts by -1.1-3.3% on lower store opening and lower margins. Target price drops to $29.4 from $32.7 and Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $29.40 Current Price is $28.89 Difference: $0.51
If DMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.62, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Further to the first half results from Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, UBS reduces the target to $31 from $36. Same-store sales growth slowed in the first seven weeks of the second half with the challenges in France and Japan continuing.

UBS is concerned about the ongoing decline in France, given the changes that have occurred and are also planned.

 In Japan, a significant market, there is some improvement yet low customer frequency makes a turnaround difficult. Neutral retained, given the uncertainty.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $28.89 Difference: $2.11
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.62, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DRO as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Commenting after FY24 results and outlook commentary, Shaw and Partners highlights DroneShield's FY25 revenue visibility has improved to $52m as of February 2025, up from $45m in January, due to strong demand from the European Union and Australia.

For FY24, management reported slower-than-anticipated revenue growth, primarily stemming from lengthier timelines in finalising and awarding tenders, explains the broker.

The company’s sales pipeline remains robust, according to the analyst, anchored by a $228m Japanese project, though the average project size has declined to $4.8m from $7.5m.

Management highlights growing opportunities in counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS) through its NATO agreement and US Department of Defence recommendations.

Shaw and Partners retains a Buy, High Risk rating and a 90c target price, citing solid revenue visibility and strong market positioning.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.105
If DRO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems, 2024 revenue growth of 18% year on year beat Bell Potter. Underlying earnings saw a significant improvement compared on 2023, with the beat to earnings estimates less than the top-line result due to increased opex.

The company has a contracted backlog of $136m and around $100m of this is to be delivered in 2025, which represents 63% of Bell Potter's full-year revenue forecast. Disappointingly, major contract awards have been delayed and are unlikely to be announced before 2H25.

Order book growth remains the key focus so the delay of major contract announcements is unfortunate, the broker notes, and thus a re-rating of the stock is unlikely in the short term. 

However, Bell Potter anticipates strong cash flows in 2025 to further bolster an already strengthened balance sheet, providing Electro Optic Systems with a multi-year runway. Target falls to $2.15 from $2.20, Buy retained.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $1.02
If EOS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems' 2024 result was overshadowed by the EM Solutions sale, which settled for $158.6m, Ord Minnett explains.

The broker notes EMS contributed $15.4m to NPAT on $82.1m revenue, while continuing operations posted a -$35.1m net after tax loss on $176.6m revenue.

The broker points out the order book declined to $136m from $307m, though the opportunity pipeline exceeds $1.5bn. The sale offers some 24 months to execute on the counter-drone strategy and secure contracts.

Ord Minnett sees increasing defence spending supporting the company's outlook but acknowledges execution risks. Target is lowered to $1.80 from $1.90. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.67
If EOS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FEX as Buy (1) -

Fenix Resources reported 1H25 underlying earnings of $20m compared to Bell Potter's $23m forecast due to lower than forecast iron ore revenue. 

No dividend was declared as Fenix Resources considers dividends on an annual basis (ie at the full year result) with respect to group funding requirements. Fenix and CZR Resources ((CZR)) have entered a binding off market takeover agreement. 

Fenix will continue to grow its portfolio of low-capital mining assets and leverage its integrated logistics networks to underpin robust cash flows, Bell Potter notes, funding further growth expenditure requirements and shareholder returns.

Buy and 41c target retained.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.12
If FEX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FFM as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie initiates coverage on FireFly Metals with an Outperform rating given strong resource growth and brownfields restart optionality. A $1.50 target is set.

The company's Green Bay project has expanded by 39% year-on-year to 58.9mt at 1.7% copper, highlights the analyst, with a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) expected in the third quarter of 2025.

Management plans to expand its processing capacity from to 2mtpa from 0.45mtpa, targeting annual copper production of 32kt over a 15-year mine life.

FireFly is also reviewing the divestment of its -70% interest in the Pickle Crow gold project, which Macquarie values at $153m.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.555
If FFM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Buy (1) -

At first take, Flight Centre Travel's 1H PBT of $117m missed Citi's $127m estimate, though FY25 guidance of $365m–$405m is maintained, and is tracking toward the low to mid-range, in line with consensus of $379m.

Proft before tax in Leisure ($59m vs. $62m) and Corporate ($96m vs. $99m) missed due to a weak 1Q, where lower TTV affected trading and super-override accruals.

Airfare deflation was higher than expected, though volume and ticket growth remained strong, with international outbound from Australia up 12% in 1H25.

Citi notes a 2H25 earnings skew can be significant, with 70% of FY19 pre-tax profit occurring in 2H. Positive trends include strong 2Q exit rates, record Australian Leisure TTV, and Scott Dunn profits, alongside a 2.3% pre-tax profit margin in Australia.

Target price is $20.35 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: $2.63
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.44, suggesting upside of 41.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GEM as Outperform (1) -

G8 Education's first half underlying earnings (EBIT) of $98.5m exceeded Macquarie's estimate, with revenue rising by 3% year-on-year to $1,018m.

Margin expansion of 120bps supported earnings growth of 12%, highlights the analyst. Macquarie forecasts a further 70bps of expansion in 2025, driven by procurement efficiencies and divestments.

The broker notes occupancy trends weakened in early-2025, down -1.9% year-to-date, though management remains cautiously optimistic about an improvement through the year.

Macquarie raises the target price to $1.60 from $1.38 and retains an Outperform rating, citing improved cost control and potential footprint expansion beyond 2026.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.3
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

Further analysis suggests G8 Education outperformed both industry and UBS expectations in 2024, yet weak 2025 occupancy to date has been the focus.

The broker suggests part of the spot occupancy weakness may be holiday timing related and the operating environment should improve as several benefits such as lower inflation flow through.

Guidance appears cautiously optimistic to the broker and a Neutral rating is maintained. Target edges down to $1.30 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLI as Neutral (3) -

Helia Group's 1H underlying profit of $114m exceeded Macquarie's expectations, supported by continued low claims and stronger investment returns. The broker anticipates claims will remain low in the near-term.

Gross written premium (GWP) grew 24% year-on-year, driven by market share gains and stabilising high loan-to-value (LVR) lending, though total industry premiums remain flat, notes the analyst. 

Management announced a special dividend of 53c per share, fully franked, and expanded its buyback program to $200m from $100m.

Macquarie raises the target price to $4.20 from $3.80 and retains a Neutral rating, citing strong capital generation but a full valuation. It's felt capital returns will continue in the form of both buybacks and special dividends.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $5.67 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If HLI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley updates modelling to allow for the first half result from IGO Ltd, bringing full year estimates in line with guidance.

The broker's forecast for EPS in FY25 is impacted by lower depreciation and higher tax benefit which narrows the estimated loss.

Adjustments are made to the profile for Nova and also lower depreciation which increases FY26 EPS estimate by 35.5%. Target is reduced to $3.85 from $4.50 and an Underweight rating is maintained. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates INA as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Ingenia Communities' 1H25 was robust, with underlying profit up 58% year-on-year and implied EPS above consensus by 28%.

Management's FY25 guidance appears conservative to the analyst, with a projected slowdown in earnings growth over 2H25 of -22% to -28%.

Optimisation of costs boosted EBIT margins by 800 basis points, the broker states, and the implementation of growth strategies was characterised by robust volume growth.

Home sales of 190 were softer than 1H24, but interest rate cuts are expected to boost the outlook.

Citi retains a Buy rating, with expected medium-term earnings growth of 10%-15% aimed for. The target price lifts to $6.50 from $6.30.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: $0.8
If INA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INA as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Ingenia Communities' 1H25 revenue and EBIT exceeded consensus by 3% and 10%, respectively, driven by margin expansion in Lifestyle Development and Rental.

The broker notes management reaffirmed upgraded FY25 guidance, expecting EBIT of $162m–$165m and underlying EPS of 29.0c–30.0c.

Strong operating momentum and continued settlement growth, with a slight 1H/2H skew is anticipated, the analyst explains, with the company's three- and five-year strategic plans focus on operational efficiency and simplification continuing.

Ord Minnett raises FY25–FY27 EBIT forecasts by 6.6% on average, lifting the price target to $6.11 from $5.90. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $6.11 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: $0.41
If INA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates INA as Neutral (3) -

Further to first half results for Ingenia Communities, UBS raises the target to $6.30 from $6.15. Estimates for FY25-29 earnings are up 12%, with the majority of the benefits in the outer years.

The main changes to the broker's modelling include higher development margins and higher interest expense along with lower tax rates.

The broker points out bullish commentary was consistent with the recent upgrade to guidance yet the price performance reflects elevated market expectations. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: $0.6
If INA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IRE as Upgrade to Buy, High Risk from Hold, High Risk (1) -

Iress’ FY24 earnings (EBITDA) exceeded Shaw and Partners' expectations, with FY25 guidance of $127m-$135m reflecting 9% growth at the midpoint.

Management sees multiple revenue drivers, including digital advice and cost synergies, with FY26 earnings expected to rise by 10% as transition service agreement (TSA) costs roll off.

The analysts highlight the company is trading at 13x FY26 cash earnings, at the lower end of its historical range, making it attractive to potential private equity buyers.

Shaw lowers the target price to $9.10 from $9.60 due to near-term earnings forecast downgrades, partially offset by asset sales, and upgrades the rating to Buy, High Risk from Hold, High Risk

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $7.67 Difference: $1.43
If IRE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.89, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JLG as Hold (3) -

Johns Lyng's 1H25 underlying profit was down -33% year on year and a -26% miss to Bell Potter. The result highlighted several difficulties.

There was a step-down in organic growth for the core A&NZ business with revenues down -16%, US fell -10% organically due to project commencement delays, and an adjusted operating cash outflow was driven by a further run-off of disaster management work.

Bell Potter notes that business-as-usual earnings guidance assumes a 58% bias to 2H, or 37% half-on-half growth, with the majority expected to be driven by margin.

While Bell Potter thinks the claims outlook at sector level in both the US and A&NZ has improved since balance date, the broker
finds it difficult to say for certain that company specific issues are also in the rear-view mirror.

Target falls to $2.50 from $4.10, Hold retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If JLG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JLG as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection, Citi believes the potential for 2H25 earnings improvement remains out of management's control, with headwinds like weather and work commitment timing still factors.

The broker lowers earnings forecasts to align with downgraded FY25 guidance and highlights possible downside risks to estimates.

Neutral rated with target price lowered to $2.70 from $3.95.

****

On first inspection Johns Lyng's reported a weak 1H25 result, missing Citi’s expectations, with FY25 business as usual (BAU) revenue and EBITDA guidance lowered by -6% and -13%, respectively. Benign weather in NSW and US project delays remain headwinds

Management's guidance implies a 2H25 margin rebound to around 12%, CAT revenue expectations have increased to $62.4m, and strata management delivered 9.3% organic growth.

The analysts points to commercial construction losses which are now expected at -$3.5m, up from -$2m.

Citi expects the shares to weaken on the result.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.17
If JLG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JLG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie lowers its target for Johns Lyng to $2.60 from $4.90 on reduced earnings forecasts and a lower assumed multiple and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, citing execution risks and a softer near-term outlook.

First half revenue of $573m missed the broker's estimates by -11% (and consensus by -7%), with earnings (EBITDA) missing the broker's estimate by -15% due to a weaker performance in NSW and the US.

FY25 guidance was lowered, with revenue reduced by -5% and earnings by -4.5%, though management is implementing cost-cutting measures, including a reduction of 120 full-time employees, explains the broker.

The US segment saw a -13.6% revenue decline due to project delays and weak job volumes from key contracts, while NSW remains six months behind recovery expectations.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.07
If JLG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JLG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley, at first glance, notes the "sizeable" miss to estimates in the Johns Lyng first half earnings (EBITDA). The broker expects more of a skew to the second half in Australasia compared with historical averages.

Strata and essential home services division was "solid", amid 11% organic growth. Overweight rating and $4.60 target. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $2.07
If JLG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JLG as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans observes Johns Lyng's 1H25 result was weaker than expected, with group revenue missing its forecast by -6% and EBITDA coming -18% below. Interim dividend of 2.5c was lower than the broker's 4.2c forecast.

The company cut FY25 EBITDA guidance by -5% which implies 2H recovery in business as usual (BAU) EBITDA. Based on the company's update, the broker expects improved revenue momentum from recent surge events in NSW and Queensland. 

In the US, volumes are expected to increase with a new client onboarding and work related to LA wildfires but it is still expected to fall short of the company's FY25 target of 10-15% revenue growth.

The analyst cut FY25 and FY26 EBITDA forecasts by -8% and -6% respectively, resulting in target price decline to $2.7 from $5.1. Rating downgraded to Hold from Add.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.17
If JLG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KGN as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

On the back of 1H25 results from Kogan.com which met expectations, Ord Minnett highlights January sales growth of 25% year-on-year was ahead of expectations but in line with recent trends.

The broker notes 1H25 results were as pre-guided, though 2H25 earnings are expected to fall short due to higher marketing spend.

Increased promotional spending raises concerns about long-term customer retention, with Kogan First’s impact unclear as membership numbers are no longer disclosed.

Ord Minnett cuts FY25–FY27 EPS forecasts by -28%, -14%, and -11%, respectively, reflecting elevated marketing costs.

The price target is lowered to $5.00 from $5.55, with the rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.65 Difference: $0.35
If KGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LIC as Hold (3) -

Lifestyle Communities' 1H25 profit was up 9.5% year on year. There is no guidance following the withdrawal all forward-looking statements in 2H24, with the dividend cut to zero “to preserve capital until the sales environment improves”.

Notwithstanding a $275m equity raising 12 months ago, the balance sheet still remains under pressure, Bell Potter notes.

Bell Potter continues to see a rocky road ahead with the recent positive share price performance not commensurate with underlying fundamentals.

Yet, recent share register changes with strategic buyers point to potential longer term value, the broker suggests. Target falls to $8.55 from $8.90, Hold retained.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If LIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.57, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Neutral (3) -

Post earnings call, Citi points to the fall in the share price of -11%, which is attributed to the weaker sales for Lifestyle Communities in 2H25 and management pointing to the ongoing challenge for FY26 settlements, the broker explains.

Accordingly, the analysts downgrade settlement forecasts on timing around the VCAT issue.

Citi believes the company is a potential takeover target. Neutral rated. Target price down to $9.70 from $10.

****

Lifestyle Communities Limited's 1H25 operating profit after tax of $22.7m was 8% ahead of consensus, Citi notes, though net sales remain weak. Settlements reached 168 by 23 February, leaving 107 needed to meet Citi’s 275 forecast for FY25.

The broker highlights management’s focus on balance sheet strength, with plans to sell $80–100m in land holdings and reduce development expenditure by a further -$100m.

Dividend payments have been paused. Sales improved in January–February but remain below 1H 2024 levels.

VCAT hearing on resident complaints is set for 1 May 2025, a key overhang on sentiment. Henry Ruiz, ex-REA, has been appointed CEO, starting 5 March, which may be viewed positively by the market, the analyst suggests.

Neutral rating with a target price of $10.00 maintained.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: $0.97
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.57, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LIC as Accumulate (2) -

Lifestyle Communities’ 1H25 net profit after tax of $22.8m exceeded prior guidance of $19.5m–$22m and the $21m consensus, driven by higher-than-expected settlements of 137 vs. 120–130 guided, Ord Minnett explains.

The broker points to sales indicators which showed an early improvement in January–February, though the year-to-date trend suggests a subdued FY26. Settlement assumptions for FY25–FY27 were reduced by -19% on average.

Ord Minnett lowers FY25–FY27 EBITDA forecasts by -18%.

Target price falls to $9.83 from $11.02. Accumulate rating retained, balancing near-term headwinds with long-term valuation upside, the analyst believes.

Target price is $9.83 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: $1.1
If LIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.57, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LIC as Buy (1) -

Further to the first half results for Lifestyle Communities UBS reduces the target to $10.20 from $11.31.

While results were ahead of estimates and there were some key positives, the broker reduces earnings forecasts for FY25-29 by -11%, assessing the recovery has clearly pushed out by at least a year.

The company's developments are trading at around 90% of the surrounding median house price and the 15% development margin, leaving less scope to meet the market on price.

Selling down elevated inventory and select development sites, the broker adds, should help the balance sheet, potentially offsetting -$134m expenditure on new land. Buy retained.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: $1.47
If LIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.57, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Light & Wonder's 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA of US$315m, was 1% ahead of its US$311m estimate and 2% above consensus. The broker notes Gaming and iGaming outperformed, while SciPlay was in line.

North American premium installed base grew 9% in 2024, 3% ahead of Citi's estimate, despite Dragon Train’s withdrawal. Average selling price for outright sales rose 21%,  around 13% above Citi’s forecast.

The Live Casino business within iGaming will be discontinued, while SciPlay’s DTC penetration reached 13% of bookings.

Citi notes management reaffirmed 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance of US$1.4bn, excluding Grover acquisition contributions, with 1Q 2025 growth expected in low double digits.

A dual primary or sole ASX listing is under consideration, with around 30% of shares already on the ASX. The broker expects the earnings beat and positive outlook to be well received.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $158.50 Difference: $41.5
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $185.17, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOV as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett highlights Lovisa’s 1H25 earnings missed consensus due to weak like-for-like sales, though margins remained strong. The broker notes early 2H sales have improved slightly.

Cost pressures persist, with US tariffs and a weaker Australian dollar expected to impact FY26 earnings, with Lovisa absorbing 33% of the negative effect.

Ord Minnett expects net new store additions of at least 55 in 2H25, including in the US. The analyst cuts EPS forecasts by -10% for FY25 and by -11% for FY26/27.

The price target is trimmed to $29.00 from $29.20. Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $26.90 Difference: $2.1
If LOV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.25, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LYC as Sell (5) -

On first take, Citi highlights 1H25 EBITDA of $38.1m for Lynas Rare Earths was below consensus by -44% and the anlayst's $69.8m estimate due to higher unit costs and a -$10m cost of sales overrun.

The broker notes D&A exceeded forecasts, while a -$16.5m FX loss resulted in NPAT of $5.9m vs. Citi's $39.1m estimate and $36.2m consensus.

Mangement offered no update on technical issues with impurities in MREC feedstock. The Dy and Tb separation circuit remains on track for commissioning and ramp-up in mid-2025. Spot NdPr is now US$55/kg, the broker explains.

Citi notes cost of sales rose 29% from higher volumes, up 23% and increased unit costs as new facilities at Mt Weld, Kalgoorlie, and Malaysia came online. Average cost per REO sold was circa $30/kg vs. Citi's $28.5/kg estimate.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAD as Hold (3) -

Mader Group reported revenue and earnings below Bell Potter's expectations due to challenged labour market conditions in Australia and ongoing uncertainty in the US political landscape (ahead of the 2024 US elections), delaying customer investment decisions.

In Canada, efforts to win new customer work and increased engagement with existing customers drove a 30% increase in shifts delivered compared with a year ago.

Mader expects margins to recover in 2H25 as customer demand returns, driving greater utilisation of the work force. In Australia, the company anticipates increased demand from the development of new mining sites and continued growth in new vertical service offerings.

At this stage, Bell Potter continues to see a mixed near-term outlook for the US, and expects Australia to deliver the lion’s share of growth in 2H25 to achieve stated guidance. Target falls to $6.50 from $6.80, Hold retained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.00 Difference: $0.5
If MAD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEC as No Rating (-1) -

Nine Entertainment's first half net profit of $95m, excluding minorities, fell -29% year-on-year but was 7% ahead of consensus estimates, notes Macquarie.

Total television revenue rose 2%, with free-to-air (FTA) down -3% and 9NOW up 28%, benefiting from the Paris Olympics in the first quarter of 2025, explains the analyst.

Management upgraded FY25 cost savings guidance by -$10m-20m to -$60-$70m, with further efficiencies expected through to FY27.

Macquarie remains on research restrictions and does not provide a rating or target price at this time.

Current Price is $1.69. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NEC as Overweight (1) -

Nine Entertainment delivered first half results that beat estimates. Morgan Stanley believes the more positive start to the second half supports an optimistic view and Overweight rating.

The broker points out this is a "classic cyclical media stock", awaiting an advertising recovery. EBITDA estimates for FY25-27are lifted 3-4%.

Morgan Stanley does add that stocks that appear cheap on an SoTP basis rarely outperform unless there is positive earnings momentum. The target is $2. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.31
If NEC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEC as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett highlights Nine Entertainment's 1H25 earnings exceeded expectations, with the company guiding for mid-to-high single-digit TV advertising revenue growth in the March quarter.

The broker notes cost guidance for the TV division was upgraded to flat from slightly up.

Nine is evaluating the $4.20 per share takeover bid for Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG)) by CoStar, considering its impact on the group’s strategy.

Management is expected to reject the initial offer but may entertain a higher bid the analyst states. Ord Minnett raises FY25 EPS forecasts by 20% and by 15% for FY26/27, reflecting a stronger revenue outlook.

Target increases to $1.80 from $1.60, with the rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.11
If NEC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEC as Neutral (3) -

UBS found the results from Nine Entertainment relatively firm despite a -15% decline in first half EBITDA. The highlight was better than expected cost performance. Cost reduction guidance has been upgraded for the full year to $60-70m.

Most of the results were broadly in line with expectations. The broker expects TV revenue in the second half to grow 8%. Neutral. Target rises to $1.65 from $1.58.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If NEC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHF as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

NIB Holdings' 1H25 net profit was in line with consensus but underlying operating profit was 8% higher, notes Morgans. 

The broker notes Australia Residents Health Insurance margin stabilised at the top of management's 5-7% guidance at 6.7%, following a decline in 2H24. The company expects 2H margin to also come at the top end of the range. 

NZ result was weak but in line with expectations, with the company expecting 2H to benefit from price increases of 20% and less working days.

Overall though, the broker believes its near-term forecasts were too optimistic in certain areas and pared it down after management commentary.

Target price, however, rises to $7.06 from $6.10 as the broker applied a 15.5x valuation multiple vs 13x on stabilisation of claims spikes.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Add.

Target price is $7.06 Current Price is $6.52 Difference: $0.54
If NHF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.74, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NOU as Buy (1) -

Noumi reported 1H25 revenue and earnings ahead of Bell Potter's expectations. The company does not provide guidance, but management expects to continue to consolidate the progress it has made in the past two years in 2H25.

The underlying result was strong, Bell Potter suggests, punctuated by a strong operating cash result on materially improving debt metrics.

As legacy issues move into the rear view and the headwinds of farmgate dislocation and lower cream prices dissipate, the broker would expect an ongoing recovery in the share price.

Target falls to 25c from 29.5c due to potential dilution from issued notes. Buy retained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.08
If NOU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NSR as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, National Storage REIT reaffirmed FY25 underlying earnings guidance of at least 11.8cps and $163m, in line with Citi's expectations.

In 1H25 revenue per available square metre (REVPAM) grew 3.5%, driven by 8.5% rental growth, while occupancy fell -3.6%, reflecting a higher proportion of developments that take three years to stabilise.

Seven new developments were completed in 1H15, with potential to generate $15m in additional revenue once stabilised.

Citi notes the REIT trades at an -11% discount to revised NTA per share of $2.53, with a 5.89% cap rate.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.45
If NSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OML as Neutral (3) -

UBS  highlights oOh!media's 1Q25 revenue is up 14% year-on-year, beating the 1H25 consensus of 9% and 2025 growth of 7%, noting the company pre-guided 2024 results which met expectations.

The broker points market share gains of circa 700bps follow 2024 reported losses and a -$15m cost-cut. Sales execution improvements drove gains, notably in the Roads division.

UBS lifts 2025 revenue growth to 9% from 5%. EBITDA forecast rises 19% to $153m, with stable gross margins at 44.5% and flat opex at $154m.

Neutral rating retained. Price target increases to $1.65 from $1.25 on EPS upgrades of 12%/16%/16% for 2025//2026/2027.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.13
If OML meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PAC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Pacific Current Group's 1H25 earnings were slightly ahead of expectations, supported by significant cost savings, Ord Minnett notes.

The broker explains management fees fell -62.1% year-on-year due to asset sales, while corporate revenue rose on higher interest income.

The company declared an unfranked 15cps dividend, above the 10.8cps forecast. Ord Minnett revises earnings, raising FY25 by 26% but lowering FY26–27 by -4% to -6%. 

Target price stays at $13.00, with the rating downgraded to Hold from Buy due to recent share price strength.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.04 Difference: $0.96
If PAC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PNV as Outperform (1) -

Total sales for PolyNovo in H1 were in line with Macquarie's forecast. Revenue grew 28% year-on-year to $54.1m, with order volumes rising by 58%.

Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) revenue exceeded expectations at $5.4m.

US sales increased 28% year-on-year to $32.2m, while European sales grew 50%, now contributing 14% of commercial revenue, highlights the analyst.

Earnings (EBITDA) fell -13.3% year-on-year to $2.6m, impacted by higher employee costs and a -$4.6m unrealised currency loss, explains the broker.

Macquarie lowers the target price to $2.80 from $2.85 and retains an Outperform rating, citing strong product pipeline momentum and new market expansion.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $1.33
If PNV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 98.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett highlights Praemium’s 1H25 EBITDA of $12.9m was in line with forecasts but below the $13.5m consensus.

The broker notes net profit after tax of $5.8m rose 46% year-on-year, with a 1cps fully franked dividend declared.

The broker emphasises revenue momentum is improving due to pricing initiatives, while flows into the core SMA platform continue growing. The new Spectrum platform has had a strong start with a solid pipeline.

Ord Minnett raises EPS forecasts by 0–4% over the next three years. The price target remains $0.90, with an Accumulate rating retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.12
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PTM as Sell (5) -

UBS highlights Platinum Asset Management's appointment of an external CIO to address poor investment performance but sees heightened near-term outflow risk.

The broker notes cost reductions remain key as fund outflows and declining fee revenue persist, with no terminal value beyond 2030 in its valuation.

Statutory NPAT of $15.9m missed UBS/consensus estimates by -38%, mainly due to -$9.6m in turnaround costs, leading to a lower interim dividend of 1.5c vs. 3.8c forecast.

The balance sheet remains strong with $204m in cash and seed capital, though much is tied to regulatory capital and product launches.

UBS reduces FY25/FY26 EPS forecasts by -28%/-7%, reflecting lower fee margins despite ongoing cost initiatives. The company aims for -$25m in expense reductions, with further initiatives likely.

The price target falls to 57c from 63c, implying an 8.5x FY26 P/E, which UBS sees as expensive given the earnings decline. Sell rating retained.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAL as Outperform (1) -

Qualitas' 1H EPS of 5.4c came in ahead of Macquarie and consensus forecasts for 5.2c and 5.3c, respectively, in an overall strong set of results reflecting growth, depth and maturity of the platform.

Funds under management (FUM) deployment momentum remained strong, in the broker's view, with a record $2.4bn deployed in private credit during the first half.

Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance, expecting pre-tax profit of $49m-$55m and EPS of 11.50c-12.91c, reflecting 34% growth at the midpoint, observes the analyst.

Macquarie raises the target price to $3.10 from $2.93 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.42
If QAL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses an unequivocally strong 1H result and outlook for Qoria.

First half earnings (EBITDA) of $6.1m beat the broker's forecast by 40%, with gross profit margins expanding by seven percentage points year-on-year.

Revenue of $55.4m came in below the analysts' forecast due to currency impacts and multi-year contract accounting treatment, though operating leverage trends remain strong.

Management reaffirmed guidance, with free cash flow projections raised for 2025-2027.

Macquarie lifts the target price to 58c from 56c and retains a Buy rating, supported by improving profitability and structural tailwinds in Education Technology.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.09
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates QOR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights Qoria's first half results showed free cash flow (FCF) is on track to turn positive, including interest, within twelve months.

Annual recurring revenue (ARR) was pre-reported, with total revenue slightly below the broker's expectations but offset by better cost performance.

The company is entering a seasonally stronger second half in the UK and US, explain the analysts, with management targeting FCF of approximately $3m in 2025.

Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating and a 52c target price, citing a strong growth pipeline and improving cash flow outlook.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.03
If QOR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS considers Ramsay Health Care’s update ahead of 1H25 results, factoring in a -$305m pre-tax impairment at UK Elysium and other non-recurring items, cutting reported FY25 EPS by -69%.

The broker notes core earnings remain stable, with 1H EBIT ex-items forecast at $508m and NPAT at $145m.

The broker points 1H25 revenue is expected at $17.5bn, up 4.6%, while FY25/26/27 core EPS estimates are unchanged. Lower depreciation and tax provisions partially offset interest cost pressures.

UBS maintains its valuation based on DCF, keeping the price target at $45.10. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $45.10 Current Price is $34.07 Difference: $11.03
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.44, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Leasing activity at Scentre Group remains strong, supporting medium-term growth, suggests Citi after reviewing today's FY24 result.

Sales from business partners remained solid, highlights the analyst, with occupancy rising to 99.6% at the end of the period from 99.2% at the close of 2023.

Leasing momentum continues to drive revenue growth, while increased security costs appear to be stabilising within property expenses.

Property expense growth of 6.4% outpaced property revenue growth of 4.5% due to higher security costs and inflation, explains Citi.

Management's 2025 guidance for funds from operations (FFO) is 22.75c, representing 4.3% growth and slightly below the broker and consensus forecasts of 23.1c.

Distributions are guided to rise 2.5% to 17.63c in 2025, providing additional capital for accretive buybacks and developments, points out Citi. Buy. Target $3.91.

Target price is $3.91 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $0.27
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDF as Overweight (1) -

Steadfast Group produced 19% growth in underlying net profit, slightly below Morgan Stanley's estimates.

At first glance, the broker suspects the results will cause some concern to investors amid moderating premium pricing and with recent step-up acquisitions reducing non-controlling interest.

Still, there are expanding growth options globally and moderating premiums are factored in, the broker adds. Overweight rating and $6.98 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $6.98 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $1.13
If SDF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDF as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights Steadfast’s 1H25 NPAT of $128m was in line with expectations, though organic revenue growth slowed while interest income offset the impact.

The broker notes premium rate increases moderated to mid-single digits, impacting broking profit growth.

Agency revenue remained resilient, growing 9.1%, but organic cost growth continued to outpace revenue. Strata business concerns did not materialise, though regulatory scrutiny is increasing.

UBS maintains FY25 net profit guidance at $290m–$300m, though lower premium rate assumptions reduce FY25/FY26 EPS forecasts ever so slightly, partially offset by higher interest income.

The price target is lowered to $6.65 from $6.85. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $0.8
If SDF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

On first inspection SiteMinder notes SiteMinder's 1H25 EBITDA of $5.3m was slightly ahead of its $5m forecast but below the $5.9m consensus.

Revenue growth of 14% missed estimates by -4%, with EBITDA benefiting from $5m in restructuring costs.

Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 22% year-on-year, with Transaction ARR up 37% and Subscription ARR up 15%. Rooms added rose 50%, while transaction product uptake improved. Opex growth was limited to 2%.

Citi notes Transaction revenue missed by -8%, Subscription ARPU fell -2%, and property net adds of 2.7k were below estimates. Free cash flow was -$5.7m due to seasonality and restructuring.

FY25 revenue may track toward $225m vs. the $237m consensus, though cost control could lead to minor EBITDA upgrades. The broker expects near-term share price weakness.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $6.37 Difference: $1.28
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.94, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

Upon further inspection, Citi highlights that Sims is essentially a U.S. scrap play, and U.S. tariffs are expected to benefit both U.S. ferrous scrap and zorba prices.

The broker states that these prices are expected to increase, although U.S. Northeast weather could challenge the third quarter.

The broker adjusts for higher depreciation/amortisation charges and EPS forecasts slip by -17.8% and -7.8% in FY25/FY26 with downgrades in DPS estimates by -5% and -10% for the same period.

The target price is raised to $15.50 from $13.50, and the Neutral rating is retained.

****

Citi notes Sims reported 1H25 underlying EBIT of $73m, in line with the broker's estimates and 9% ahead of consensus on first take.

An interim dividend of 10c exceeded Citi’s 7.0c forecast.

Australia outperformed with EBIT of $38m, while SA Recycling and North America were slightly below expectations. Cost savings of -$13m were delivered in 1H25, with -$20–25m more planned for 2H25 and -$10–15m targeted beyond FY26.

Citi notes stable supply-demand balance ahead despite seasonal softness. Hyperscaler market momentum remains strong, with cost savings mitigating inflation.

The broker suggests US and SA Recycling should benefit from tariffs, though A&NZ may face challenges.

Neutral rating with a target price of $13.50.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $14.27 Difference: $1.23
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.92, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGM as Outperform (1) -

Sims' first half earnings (EBIT) of $73m exceeded Macquarie's forecast, driven by a strong North American Metals (NAM) performance and improved trading margins.

While A&NZ volumes declined by -15.6% due to economic conditions and Chinese steel exports, the analyst notes earnings were stronger than expected, supported by margin expansion.

The company announced a new dividend policy with a payout of 25%-35% of free cash flow (FCF), but distributions could remain volatile due to working capital cycles, observes the broker.

Management pointed to potentially positive impacts of US tariffs and the improving fundamental positioning of the business.

Macquarie raises the target price to $15.70 from $15.40 and retains an Outperform rating, supported by stabilising ferrous market conditions and valuation support.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $14.27 Difference: $1.43
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.92, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGM as Underweight (5) -

First half EBIT from Sims was slightly below Morgan Stanley's estimates. The broker acknowledges conditions have improved but remain challenging.

No guidance was provided and the broker acknowledges non-ferrous strength and reduced inflation pressures provide a tailwind for the second half.

Management expects US tariffs are likely to result in benefits in North America amid potential challenges in Australasia. Underweight rating. Target $11.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $14.27 Difference: minus $2.77 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.92, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights Sims' 1H25 earnings beat, driven by stronger North America Metals margins despite a slight volume decline. The broker notes the business is prioritising unprocessed scrap over dealer scrap, supporting profitability.

The broker notes tariff risks remain uncertain, with potential US steel and aluminium tariffs from March, but scrap is not yet included. Cost-cutting of -$77m since FY24 is nearly complete, with -$35m remaining in 2H25.

UBS expects 2H25 EBIT to require a strong 4Q, given a weak January and February. The $72m EBIT needed in 4Q aligns with past upswings but carries risk.

The broker raises the price target to $14.50 from $13.60. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.27 Difference: $0.23
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.92, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSG as Hold (3) -

Shaver Shop Group’s 1H profit fell by -3.5% year-on-year to $12m, missing Ord Minnett's $12.8m estimate. Revenue declined by -1% to $125.8m.

Gross profit margins remained high, points out the broker, improving to 45.5% from 44.4% in the previous corresponding period, while store network expansion plans remain on track, with one additional opening expected in H2.

Year-to-date sales growth was 0.3%, with in-store and online channels showing marginal improvement.

Macquarie retains a Hold rating with a $1.30 target price, noting resilient margins but a challenging consumer environment.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If SSG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SVR as Buy (1) -

Solvar reported a good set of results, Bell Potter suggests, with profit, earnings and dividend up year on year and beating expectations. The Australian loan book is now growing at 7% annually, and commentary was upbeat, pointing to transition and set for growth in FY26.

The group has had a difficult two years, the broker notes, and these results are notable for being clean and lacking nasty surprises. There is a lot of activity going on within the business to support growth.

The NZ borrowing has been repaid, using cash from the Australian business, while Money3 has secured an additional $60m of  international mezzanine finance, adding capacity and indicating credibility.

Target rises to $1.60 from $1.48, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.14
If SVR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SVR as Add (1) -

Morgans notes Solvar's 1H25 underlying net profit was 9% higher than its forecast, and bad debts at 4.1% remained within the company's 3.5-4.5% target range.

The company reaffirmed its FY25 net profit guidance of $34m which implies 2H net profit of $15.5m, and continues to expect its Australian loan receivables to exit FY25 at $850m, up 8% y/y.

The broker made moderate changes to forecasts, with FY25 net profit forecast up 1.6% and FY26 up 0.1%. Target price rises to $1.55 from $1.45 on time creep. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.09
If SVR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TEA as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights Tasmea's 1H25 statutory result was ahead of expectations but underlying was broadly in line as the company benefitted from carry forward of tax losses. 

The company raised FY25 statutory net profit guidance to $52m from $48m which the broker reckons is mainly due to a $4m tax benefit. A brighter outlook for 2H would also be a contributor, given the expected drag from employee incentive payments announced in November.

The company confirmed it expects to make two further bolt-on acquisitions before end-FY25. The broker doesn't factor any until they occur but acknowledges acquisition target will likely be exceeded.

Target price rises to $3.65 from $3.60. Add maintained.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.7
If TEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TEA as Hold, High Risk (3) -

Tasmea's first half results were "solid" but slightly below Shaw and Partners' expectations. More positively, group earnings (EBIT) margins improved, and two acquisitions were successfully integrated.

FY25 statutory profit guidance was raised to $52m from $48m, leading to a 3.5% increase in the broker's FY25-FY27 earnings forecasts.

Key catalysts, according to the analyst, include further acquisitions, improved liquidity as shares come out of escrow, and potential inclusion in the ASX300 index.

Shaw raises its target price to $2.85 from $2.50 and retains a Hold, High Risk rating.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If TEA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates THL as Hold (3) -

Morgans' notes Tourism Holdings Rentals' 1H25 underlying net profit was down -33% y/y, weighed down by a -4% decline in vehicle sales.

Ex-fleet sales margins dropped to 24.4% from 26.1% and retail recreational vehicle (RV) sales margin fell to 9.1% from 10.8%.

The result was, however, stronger than the broker's forecast, though it now acknowledges there's a risk to the company's target of achieving net profit growth in FY25. 

The key risk is a more prolonged downturn in RV sales, and margin and volume pressure in the Australian market. The broker is closely monitoring US/Canada tariff situation for any potential impact on North American outlook.

Target price drops to $1.73 from $2.02 as the broker cut FY25 and FY26 net profit forecasts by -20.7% and -21.8% respectively. Rating stays at Hold.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.18
If THL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates THL as Buy (1) -

Tourism Holdings' 1H net profit fell -33% year-on-year to NZ$26.5m due to ongoing pressure in the used vehicle market, particularly in Australia, explains Ord Minnett.

Rental demand remains stable following the Apollo acquisition, observes the broker. Management is implementing -NZ$12m in annual cost savings.

The dividend payout was reduced to NZ2.5c to preserve balance sheet flexibility, explain the analysts.

Macquarie raises the target price to NZ$3.07 from NZ$2.90 and retains a Buy rating, expecting a longer-term recovery despite near-term market headwinds. The analysts reiterate the company emerged a structural winner from covid.

Current Price is $1.55. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates THL as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights Tourism Holdings' 1H25 earnings miss and a weaker North American market, delaying recovery expectations by 12 months.

The broker notes 1H25 EBIT fell -NZ$16m year-on-year as higher rental revenues were offset by lower sales margins and increased opex.

The broker points A&NZ rental revenue rose 4%, ex-fleet resale margins fell 14% to  around NZ$21k per unit, and non-fleet retail margins declined 15% to NZ$9.2k per unit.

Weakness in North America sales and rentals (-20%) and higher admin costs (15%) drove downgrades.

UBS cuts FY25/FY26 EBIT forecasts by -7%/-6%, reflecting slower fleet growth and higher opex. Retail margin recovery is expected to be gradual, with rental yields stabilising in FY26.

The price target is lowered to NZ$1.80 from NZ$1.90. Neutral rating retained.

Current Price is $1.55. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

In an initial assessment, Morgan Stanley expects the reaction to the outlook commentary for 2025 from Viva Energy will be negative, noting C&M and C&I EBITDA guidance of $705m at the mid point.

2025 net capital expenditure guidance is around -$500m and the company anticipates a reduction from 2026 as the refinery investment program concludes.

2024 EBITDA of $749m was preannounced and marginally below Morgan Stanley's estimates. Target $3.06. Equal-weight. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.06 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $1.3
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting upside of 85.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights Viva Energy’s 2024 underlying NPAT was in line, but the final dividend was slightly weaker, implying a 66% payout of group net profit.

The broker notes the key focus was the Convenience & Mobility (C&M) segment, where 1H25 EBITDA guidance missed consensus by -26%, though 2H 2025 was in line with estimates.

The broker points OTR conversions showed early success, with three of four initial sites performing well. Higher conversion costs and a longer rollout timeline were confirmed, though UBS maintains a positive outlook for long-term EBITDA growth.

UBS cuts 2025 EPS by -35%, reducing C&M EBITDA by -$80m for 1H. 2026 EPS forecast falls by -3, reflecting modestly weaker C&M and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) performance and higher interest costs.

The price target is lowered to $3.10 from $3.20. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $1.34
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting upside of 85.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates VMM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Viridis Mining and Minerals has released the results of its Scoping Study on the Colossus Rare Earth project in Pocos de Caldas, Brazil.

The results highlight the potential for Colossus to be a meaningful supplier of low-cost rare earth carbonates within a relatively short period.

Inputing spot prices through its model, Bell Potter reaches an un-risked post dilution valuation of 93c per share. The broker believes the market may be seeking further validation in the form of strategic investors, or offtake/funding guarantees.

Bell Potter maintains a Buy (speculative) recommendation and lowers its target to $1.45 from $1.70 on capital dilution assumptions.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $1.17
If VMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 418% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi upgrades Woodside Energy to Neutral from Sell and lifts the target price to $24 from $22.

The broker highlights the company, which sits in the ASX10 stocks, is largely underweight for Australian fund managers, suggesting if management succeeds in selling down 50% of the Louisiana LNG, then it might become what the analyst calls "the pain trade."

Citi stresses the stock is not a Buy, and the analyst prefers Santos ((STO)), but Woodside Energy now has an upside Short Term view.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $24.03 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy’s 2024 earnings (EBITDA) of US$9.3bn and net profit of US$2.9bn were in line with Macquarie's forecasts, with an 80% dividend payout maintained.

Production costs of US$8.10/boe were below the broker's estimate, while major projects progressed, including Scarborough at 80% completion and first LNG expected in 2026.

The Louisiana LNG project remains a key near-term catalyst, in the analyst's view, with a planned -50% sell down and final investment decision (FID) expected in the coming months.

The final dividend of US$0.53 cents was just a little ahead of the broker and consensus forecasts.

Macquarie retains its $26 target price and Neutral rating and raises its forecast dividend payout ratio to 80%. The broker highlights stable cash flow and valuation alignment with global peers.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $24.03 Difference: $1.97
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Equal-weight (3) -

Woodside Energy delivered 2024 results with net profit and dividend slightly ahead of expectations. 2025 guidance is unchanged. Morgan Stanley, at first glance, anticipates a "muted" reaction to the results.

2025 production guidance is 186-196 mmboe plus blue ammonia production and capital expenditure guidance of US$4.5-5bn and Louisiana LNG expenditure are unchanged.

Equal-weight rating and $27 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $24.03 Difference: $2.97
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WDS as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights Woodside Energy's FY24 result largely met expectations, though net profit was 13% higher while net debt was up 6% vs its forecasts.

The broker's focus remains on Louisiana LNG selldown because it may be driving a significant part of the current share price discount. 

The broker is encouraged by the company's announcement that negotiations with multiple parties have progressed to an advanced stage.

The broker now sees a high probability the North West Shelf JV will not receive approvals for an extension before the next federal election and has shaved five years off forecasts to align with its existing 2030 approvals.

Target price rises to $30.25 from $30.00, and Add rating maintained.

Target price is $30.25 Current Price is $24.03 Difference: $6.22
If WDS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Hold (3) -

Woodside Energy’s 2024 earnings (EBITDA) of US$9.3bn and net profit of US$2.9bn were slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations, while the dividend was larger-than-expected, with an 80% dividend payout maintained.

Management reaffirmed key operational guidance for 2025, with the Louisiana LNG project sell down to -50% seen as a key de-gearing catalyst.

Capital expenditure remains elevated as the company replenishes its production base, explains the broker, with depreciation and amortisation guided to -US$4.5bn-$5bn for 2025.

Macquarie raises the target price to $26.00 from $25.50 and retains a Hold rating, highlighting execution risks on large-scale projects.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $24.03 Difference: $1.97
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)