Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

The broker's target price for 29Metals declines to 23c from 29c after lowering forecasts post 4Q operational results. Equal-weight retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.025
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

AGL Energy reported a 1H25 result with underlying net profit after tax exceeding the consensus forecast by 21%, UBS states on first take.

The result was also better than the broker's expectations due to higher electricity retail prices and increased pool revenue from the company's generation pool, the analyst highlights.

Customer numbers were essentially flat, meaning electricity earnings were underpinned by higher prices.

The analyst points to gas, which came in slightly below expectations due to softer retail and wholesale generation volumes, although better prices provided a slight offset.

Management narrowed FY25 guidance with some improved transparency on coal and gas supply contracts, which is expected to alleviate margin concerns for 2027-2028 as low-cost fuel supply expires, the broker details.

Neutral rated. Target $11.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.71 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.79, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANN as Hold (3) -

Ansell's 1H25 earnings were comfortably ahead of market expectations, with the company guiding to full-year earnings above consensus forecasts, Ord Minnett highlights.

The result was boosted by wider margins in the Kimberly-Clark PPE business acquired in 2024, and increased earnings from existing divisions.

The broker has lifted FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by 5% and 4% respectively. Target price rises to $36.20 from $31.60.

Hold recommendation maintained.

Target price is $36.20 Current Price is $37.01 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.22, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, Amotiv reported 1H25 earnings before interest and tax below consensus by -1%, while net profit after tax missed consensus by -37% due to NZ impairments, restructuring, and greenfield costs, Citi details.

The powertrain and undercar performance was positive, the broker notes, with revenue growth of 5.8%, but freight costs, inflation, and investment in Infinitev resulted in lower earnings growth of 4.8%.

Citi points to weakness in the 4WD segment, with earnings margins shrinking by -118bps due to softness in pickup/SUV sales, caravans, and NZ.

Lighting, power, and optical revenues also declined. Management reiterated FY25 guidance.

Buy rated with an attractive valuation. Target price $12.65.

Target price is $12.65 Current Price is $10.62 Difference: $2.03
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.02, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AOV as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Amotiv's 1H25 results were largely in line with UBS' expectations, although the analyst explains the earnings mix was "messy" due to a challenging operating environment.

The company's 4WD business came in better than feared, the analyst explains, despite weaker vehicle volumes and caravan sales in NZ.

Management continues to guide to a stronger 2H25 earnings skew but did not offer any further details on where the incremental growth will be generated.

January trading has seen forward workshop bookings at one to two weeks, which UBS views as stable. The trend in new vehicle sales in NZ has continued, and South African revenue is in line with targets.

UBS does not view consensus earnings upgrades as likely, which is reflected in the stock's lower valuation relative to peers. Buy rated. Target $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.62 Difference: $2.38
If AOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.02, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARF as Neutral (3) -

UBS' first snapshot of Arena REIT's 1H25 results is in line with expectations, and guidance remains unchanged.

The broker notes occupancy at 99.2% and like-for-like rental growth of 3.2%, down from 4.9% in the June 2024 period. The weighted average lease life stood at 18 years, compared to 18.5 years in June last year.

The broker believes the REIT generated a "solid" result, although rental growth has slowed. Ongoing acquisition and development capex of -$154m, the highest since FY17, is expected to assist in generating future earnings growth.

The REIT is believed to be in a good position when the cycle turns. Neutral. Target $4.09.

Target price is $4.09 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.14
If ARF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -

As large-cap resource stocks under Morgans' coverage have recently reported December quarter operating metrics, the February reporting season is expected to present fewer surprises compared to other sectors.

BHP Group and Rio Tinto are preferred for their balance sheet, earnings, and dividend qualities.

The broker maintains a cautious view on iron ore in 2025, with already volatile demand conditions persisting and the risk of trade conflict between major steel-consuming regions.

The analyst considers BHP Group is the ‘safest’ report of the diversified miners, with the key risk being potential for a second approach to Anglo American.

For results on February 18, Morgans forecasts a US52c dividend, above the consensus expectation for US49c.

Add. Target rises to $49.70 from $49.10.

Target price is $49.70 Current Price is $40.12 Difference: $9.58
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.20, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

The broker's target price for Boss Energy rises to $3.25 from $2.75 after updating forecasts for positive 2Q operational results. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.03, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

Post Breville Group's earnings call, Citi highlights management's lower end of FY25 guidance has been largely achieved, with inventory build-up to offset tariffs, while the top end of earnings guidance is predicated on the proposed 10% tariffs on China coming to fruition.

The broker points out that any excess revenue generated above guidance will be reinvested into the business. China will become digital like Korea and is expected to take two years to become profitable.

Management also flagged a pickup in capex to boost supply chain diversity and noted that 2H margins are expected to be in line with 1H25. Meanwhile, competition in the coffee sector continues to be viewed as a net positive, the analyst details.

The target price lifts to $38.20 from $36.51. With an "expensive" valuation, Citi continues to rate Breville as Neutral.

Target price is $38.20 Current Price is $36.89 Difference: $1.31
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.36, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BRG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights Breville Group's 1H25 result was in line with its forecast and consensus expectations. New product launches exceeded the broker's expectations, particularly the Oracle Jet coffee machine.

The broker notes the company has increased inventory in North America ahead of increased China tariffs from 7 March, shielding 2H25 margins. The company confirmed direct China distribution in 2H25.

The company issued FY25 EBIT guidance growth of 5-10%, with the top end assuming no impact from a change in current trade policy. Macquarie's forecast remains towards the top end. 

The broker raised its EV/EBIT multiple to 24-26x (from 18-22x), reflecting confidence in the duration of revenue growth, following direct China entry and ongoing new product development success. Target price rises to $41.1 from $35.1.

Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $41.10 Current Price is $36.89 Difference: $4.21
If BRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.36, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BRG as Overweight (1) -

Breville Group reported better-than-expected 1H25 earnings against consensus, Morgan Stanley highlights. Revenue and gross profit growth accelerated in the period to 13% and 11%, respectively, assisted by all geographies.

Management guidance for FY25 stands at 5%-10% earnings before interest and tax growth, depending on US tariffs. The analyst points to a peak in inventory and net debt as Breville pulled forward inventories in 2H25.

The direct launch into China and the Middle East is viewed positively by Morgan Stanley, and the coffee bean marketplace, Beanz, has upside potential to generate recurring, high-margin revenue streams.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS estimates by -4% and -1% for FY25 and FY26 to meet the midpoint of the earnings guidance range.

Industry view: in-line. Target price lifts to $40 from $35. No change to overweight rating.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.89 Difference: $3.11
If BRG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.36, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BRG as Hold (3) -

Breville Group's 1H revenue, earnings (EBIT), and profit were all slight beats against consensus forecasts, with Morgans highlighting good top-line growth across key markets, resilient margins, and a solid capital position.

The Americas, APAC, and EMEA delivered revenue growth of 10.9%, 16.3%, and 15.4%, respectively, compared to the previous corresponding period.

The analysts consider FY25 earnings guidance may prove conservative, but believe the company's near-term growth trajectory is already reflected in the share price.

Target rises to $33.45 from $30.05. Hold maintained.

Target price is $33.45 Current Price is $36.89 Difference: minus $3.44 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.36, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRG as Accumulate (2) -

The highlight of Breville Group's 1H25 result was an acceleration in global revenue growth to 13%, driven by double-digit revenue growth in the Americas, EMEA and APAC regions, Ord Minnett highlights.

The company enters 2H25 with strong sales momentum, with medium-term growth bolstered by moving to a direct-to-market model in China and the Middle East.

The broker believes the company's 5-10% FY25 EBIT growth guidance is conservative but prudent, given uncertainty on potential tariff increases.

Target price rises to $40 from $38. Accumulate rating maintained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.89 Difference: $3.11
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.36, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

UBS considers the key news from Breville Group's 1H result was the expansion of direct distribution into the Middle East (since January) and China in the current half.

While the broker sees growth potential, it maintains a Neutral rating, noting the stock is trading at a multiple last seen during covid, when sales were growing at approximately 25%.

Sales momentum was solid globally in H1, and category demand outside coffee, particularly in food preparation and cooking, is improving, observe the analysts.

Management’s FY25 earnings (EBIT) guidance for 5-10% growth appears conservative to UBS.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $37.40 from $32.70.

Target price is $37.40 Current Price is $36.89 Difference: $0.51
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.36, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Citi reiterates a Buy rating on CAR Group with a higher target price of $43.40 from $42.40.

The analyst notes a more robust performance from Webmotors, experiencing an "acceleration" alongside Encar. Australian growth slowed to single digits, and Trader Interactive's price delay is viewed as a negative.

Citi anticipates growth will expand again in FY26 and is forecasting earnings growth before interest, tax, and depreciation of circa 15% through to FY27.

The balance sheet also allows for M&A activity to boost growth.

Target price is $43.40 Current Price is $37.30 Difference: $6.1
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.63, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CAR as Hold (3) -

Car Group's 1H25 result was broadly in line with expectations and the group reaffirmed guidance for full-year revenue and earnings.

This was despite downgrading 2H25 revenue growth guidance for its US operations citing delays to planned price increases, Ord Minnett notes.

The broker cut FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by -3% and -4% respectively. Hold recommendation and $39 target price retained.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $37.30 Difference: $1.7
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.63, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi's first impression of CommBank's 1H25 result is better-than-expected cash earnings, exceeding the forecast and consensus by 1.5%.

Bad and doubtful debts were another better-than-expected result, and the net interest margin is stated as "optically high" at 2.08%, driven by a more robust loan balance offset by higher costs.

Cost increases gathered pace in 2Q25, with investment in technology and franchise improvement advancing 10% annually to $2.2bn per annum, Citi notes.

On balance, while seemingly strong, the analyst believes it met expectations, with loan growth and asset quality being the two positive factors, though both were slated by management to slow as the economy softens.

Sell rating and $91.50 target unchanged. Citi does not view upward EPS revisions as likely off the result.

Target price is $91.50 Current Price is $162.16 Difference: minus $70.66 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $104.22, suggesting downside of -37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes CommBank generated a 1H25 result that was basically in line with expectations, although expenses were higher, offset by better revenue growth and a slight lift in margins, the analyst explains.

The broker attributes the boost in net interest margin to lower liquid assets, and if excluded, the margin rose 1bp on the previous half, lower than stated.

CommBank's impairments were well below Macquarie's estimate, with strong credit quality observed. Home loan arrears rose by 1bp to 66bp on the previous half.

The rating remains at Underperform due to a stretched valuation and a weak earnings growth outlook over the next few years.

Target $105.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $162.16 Difference: minus $57.16 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $104.22, suggesting downside of -37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

UBS is yet another broker to question CommBank's valuation in light of a 60c EPS beat for 1H25. The broker highlights a 40% rise in the share price for a 3.2% lift in the 1H25 EPS result over the last year.

On first inspection, the analyst notes revenue growth of 4% was in line with expectations, while opex was higher than anticipated, up 3% on the previous half-year. Impairment expenses were lower than forecast by -18% and -27% below consensus.

While UBS believes the results are positive in terms of factors underpinning EPS momentum, the analyst raises a flag over cost growth.

The dividend met expectations.

No change to the Sell rating and $115 target price.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $162.16 Difference: minus $47.16 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $104.22, suggesting downside of -37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Citi maintains a Buy rating and $9.38 target price on Collins Foods, with a short-term upside view on the stock until March 4.

The analyst notes the 4Q 2024 result for McDonald's suggests Collins Foods' Australian business is in "good shape" on a relative basis, although McDonald's highlighted the business was not performing to its full potential.

European results for McDonald's indicate revenue growth and cost inflation remain an issue, and McDonald's appears to be taking market share in Germany.

European food inflation is highlighted as mainly in beef, which may drive some switching to chicken, a benefit to KFC, Citi believes.

Target price is $9.38 Current Price is $8.24 Difference: $1.14
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.75, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Computershare reported a stronger-than-expected 1H25 result, with EPS above the consensus estimate by 6%, Citi notes.

Importantly, the broker states management lifted FY25 EPS guidance to growth of 15% versus around 7.5% previously in constant currency.

Plans and Issuer Services generated strong growth over the period, with fee income from Plans higher than anticipated. A lower effective tax rate at 24% also assisted the 1H25 result, Citi explains.

Neutral rated with a $35 target price. Citi expects upside risks to consensus earnings and is revisiting current forecasts.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $35.96 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.86, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights Computershare's 1H25 result was strong, with revenue across all divisions beating expectations. While operating costs were higher than expected reflecting additional investment for growth, net profit beat forecasts on lower tax rate.

The company raised FY25 EPS guidance to $1.35 from $1.26 mainly due to the inclusion of 1.3c buyback benefit and dropping the anticipated tax rate. Margin income guidance was also increased to $760m from $745m reflecting higher balances, with the forecast set using forward curves as of Feb 4.

Neutral rating and $35 target price.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $35.96 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.86, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Equal-weight (3) -

Computershare's 1H management EPS (MEPS) beat forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by 2% and 6%, respectively. Earnings were boosted a tax rate of circa 23.5% (broker had forecast 26.5%) on a changing mix post the US Mortgage Service sale.

Total revenue fell by -1%, with softer Issuer Services and Corporate Trust revenues partly offset by stronger Employee Share Plans revenues on strong transaction fees, explain the analysts.

New FY25 MEPS constant currency guidance of 135cps suggest to the broker management is now looking for 15% year-on-year growth, up from 7.5% earlier.

Target $31.10. Equal-weight. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $31.10 Current Price is $35.96 Difference: minus $4.86 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.86, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Computershare’s first-half results benefited from stronger transactional revenues and higher margin income balances, reflecting a more buoyant equity and capital market environment post the US election.

EPS beat the broker and consensus forecasts by 6%.

The broker expects improving Corporate Trust revenues and margin income balances to be more sustainable as US debt issuance recovers with lower interest rates, while strong Employee Share Plan and Registry transactional volumes may be harder to replicate.

Neutral maintained and target price is raised to $37.40 from $36.15 on the broker's higher EPS forecasts.

Target price is $37.40 Current Price is $35.96 Difference: $1.44
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.86, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter explains Seqirus, CSL's vaccine business, was the key drag on the company, reporting lower-than-forecast revenue and net profit after tax for 1H25.

Both Vifor and Behring provided somewhat of an offset to the decline in Seqirus of -8% on the previous corresponding period. Notably, Behring's gross margin advanced and is on track to the targeted circa 57% by FY28, the analyst notes.

Management reiterated constant currency revenue growth of 5%-7% for FY25 and 10%-13% growth in net profit after tax. A forex headwind of -US$50m-US$80m was also highlighted by CSL for FY25.

Bell Potter points to headwinds for the company's flu business, Seqirus, but Behring's recovery is progressing well and is expected to continue.

The target price slips to $335 from $345, Buy rating retained. The broker's net profit forecasts are lowered by -3% for FY25 and -4% for FY26.

Target price is $335.00 Current Price is $256.96 Difference: $78.04
If CSL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.93, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi maintains a Buy rating on CSL with a lower target price of $335 from $345, with management maintaining FY25 guidance despite pressure on flu vaccine sales.

The broker notes strength in Behring and Vifor was unable to offset weakness in Seqirus. Looking ahead, management retained the recovery target for Behring's gross margin to 57% by FY27-FY28 and double-digit earnings growth for the medium term.

While H5 avian flu might offer some relief for the vaccine business, Citi believes it will be a one-off. The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -3% and -7% for FY25 and FY26.

Citi believes the stock offers good value.

Target price is $335.00 Current Price is $256.96 Difference: $78.04
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.93, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes CSL's gross margin in the 1H25 result was below expectations, with Behring beating by 30bps but Vifor coming -90bps below and Seqirus missing by -400bps.

The company reaffirmed FY25 net profit guidance on expected revenue growth of 5-7%, prompting Macquarie to lower its net profit forecast by -2% at the midpoint of guidance.

The broker revised FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates by -2%, reflecting revised operational assumptions and updated house forex forecasts.

The DCF-derived target price moves higher to $360.30 from $334.00 reflecting EPS changes and updated risk-free rate to 4.55% from 4.52%.

Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $360.30 Current Price is $256.96 Difference: $103.34
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.93, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSL as Add (1) -

Morgans describes CSL’s first half as soft, with currency movements and weaker-than-expected vaccine sales weighing on results.

More positively, the broker notes stable constant currency margins and strong operating cash flow, while Behring sales rose 10% on strong plasma collections, and Vifor outperformed with 6% sales growth.

Seqirus struggled to offset weak immunisation rates in the US, but management maintained FY24 guidance.

Following modest forecast adjustments, Morgans lowers the target price to $329.26 from $330.75 and retains an Add rating, citing confidence in double-digit earnings growth over the medium-term.

Target price is $329.26 Current Price is $256.96 Difference: $72.3
If CSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.93, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes CSL's 1H25 earnings came below market forecasts, driven by a sharp fall in revenue and earnings from Seqirus while Behring and Vifor turned in solid performances.

Still, the company maintained guidance for full-year net profit growth of 10-13%.

The broker notes the company's confidence was buoyed by strong gross margin performance in Behring which accounts for 67% of group revenue and 63% of earnings.

Following the result, the broker cut its EPS estimates for both FY25 and FY26 by -3% mainly driven by lower expectations from Seqirus.

Target price cut to $310 from $318. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $256.96 Difference: $53.04
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.93, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers its target for Buy-rated CSL to $310 from $320 after yesterday's initial review (see summary below) of first half results.

UBS was encouraged by Behring's performance in 1H25, with gross margin lifting 118bps year-on-year or 174bps in constant currency.

Revenue growth for Behring met expectations, while Vifor revenue growth was above consensus by 7%. However, the group gross margin at 67% was below consensus by -144bps.

Seqirus' performance was weak, per the broker's commentary, with revenues coming in -10% below consensus and -6% below the broker's forecast.

Overall, net profit after tax was a miss, coming in -7% below consensus, which UBS attributes to Vifor's and Seqirus' margins.

A weak US flu market contributed to the Seqirus result. 

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $256.96 Difference: $53.04
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.93, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector, and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

Iron ore miners remain the biggest dividend payers in the broker's coverage.

The analyst's target price for Deterra Royalties rises to $3.95 from $3.90. Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive. 

Morgan Stanley is forecasting an interim dividend of 8cps, -10% below the consensus forecast, driven by a lower payout ratio.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DYL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Prior to the final investment decision (FID) for Tumas next month, and following an 18% reserve upgrade in December, the analyst at Morgans has recently visited the project in Namibia.

The broker reports early works are well underway after commencing in late-2024.

Morgans' target is increased to $1.73 from $1.69 given increased mined inventory following the December reserve upgrade. Speculative Buy.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.455
If DYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 42.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

On first take, Evolution Mining reported a better-than-expected 1H25 earnings report, according to Citi and the analyst's estimate for underlying net profit.

The broker notes overall costs came in lower by -$50m than Citi's estimate. The interim 7c dividend per share was above the analyst's 6c estimate, and the dividend reinvestment plan has been reinstated, Citi notes.

Management reconfirmed the miner's largely un-hedged position, and the gearing target of under 20% has been retained by the end of FY25.

At this stage, Citi retains earnings estimates post-result and remains "bullish" on gold prices, seeing a US$2,600-US$3,000/oz price as sustainable.

Neutral rated. Target $5.80.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

On first inspection, Evolution Mining reported better-than-expected 1H25 earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation, exceeding Macquarie's forecast by 9% and consensus by 7%.

Management retained FY25 guidance with production of 710-780koz and all-in sustaining costs of $1,475-$1,575/oz. Year-to-date production stands at 52% of the midpoint, the broker explains, and costs are within guidance.

Macquarie attributes the better-than-anticipated result to deferred revenue and slightly lower net debt on reduced leases.

No change to the Underperform rating and $5.50 target price prior to the earnings call.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

The broker highlights higher gold prices are generating strong free cash flow (FCF) for gold miners.

For Evolution Mining, the analyst's 6.9 cent dividend forecast is 25% above the consensus estimate.

Equal-weight with a higher target price of $5.55, up from $4.95. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

As large-cap resource stocks under Morgans' coverage have recently reported December quarter operating metrics, the February reporting season is expected to present fewer surprises compared to other sectors.

BHP Group and Rio Tinto are preferred for their balance sheet, earnings, and dividend qualities.

The broker maintains a cautious view on iron ore in 2025, with already volatile demand conditions persisting and the risk of trade conflict between major steel-consuming regions.

For Fortescue, the $18.90 target and Hold rating are maintained.

Target price is $18.90 Current Price is $19.12 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.48, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

For Iluka Resources, the broker's target falls to $4.75 from $4.90. Equal-weight rating retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $0.12
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 29.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Sell (5) -

Citi believes Imdex reported a "resilient" 1H25 result at first glance, which is expected to support the company's share price.

The broker highlights, despite a soft backdrop in global exploration levels, the company generated a better-than-expected APAC result with improved margins, well in excess of estimates, leading to stronger-than-expected earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation.

Sensors and SaaS via the digital service generated good top-line growth. The broker points to the decline in revenue for the period as a negative, and cash conversion was lower than forecast.

Management does not offer guidance, but sustained activity levels were flagged for the balance of FY25, Citi explains, although industry sentiment was highlighted as improving.

Sell rating retained. Target $1.95.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting downside of -19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes the 1H25 result from Imdex appears "fine" at first take, with the report sufficient to underpin the recent rally in the share price, the analyst states.

Revenue grew 1% on 2H24, while net profit after tax fell -19% on the previous corresponding period, meeting consensus expectations.

Management pointed to an increase in resource exploration budgets from Australian companies and expects better transparency in 3Q25 on other geographies, the broker notes. A positive outlook was flagged from FY26.

UBS highlights the consensus FY25 earnings forecast of $130m before interest, tax, and depreciation will require a 2H25 result of $66m, a rise of 11% year-on-year and 4% on 1H25.

Neutral rated with a $2.60 target price.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting downside of -19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Accumulate (2) -

Incitec Pivot flagged production outages at its Phosphate Hill fertiliser plant, due to maintenance work and the impact of sulphuric acid supply interruptions and recent weather events.

Still, the company reiterated FY25 guidance for the group, with performance to be underpinned by its key Dyno Nobel explosives business, Ord Minett notes.

The company said the sale process for the distribution business has received interest from a range of trade and financial parties, and a binding sale agreement continues to be targeted for mid-2025.

Ord Minnett has raised its FY25 EPS forecast by 1% to incorporate the benefits of currency movements to both the fertiliser and explosives but cut FY26 estimates by -7% on removal of the fertiliser business from its model.

No change to Accumulate rating and $3.45 target price.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.55
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

For Lynas Rare Earths, the Underweight rating and $5.70 target are maintained. The industry view remains Attractive.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes recent APRA profit data indicating strong industry performance and a boost from better markets will result in "solid" first half results for both Medibank Private and nib Holdings.

Medibank Private is the broker's preferred play given past delivery of best-in-class margins, with more consistency than peers, and management also has several levers to sustain outperformance.

The target for Medibank Private rises to $3.95 from $3.80. Equal-weight. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

Citi highlights Macquarie Group's 3Q25 trading update came in short of expectations, with nine-month year-to-date earnings basically in line with the previous corresponding period, sitting below the analyst's forecast of 10% growth on a year earlier.

Breaking down the report, the broker notes the change in the makeup of earnings, with annuity-style businesses up "substantially" and markets-related business falling "substantially."

Management has retained FY25 guidance, which infers to Citi that there will be only slight consensus earnings changes and will require a robust 4Q25 result of 10%-15% growth year-on-year. FY26 estimates are dependent on platform sales, the broker explains.

Sell rating retained with a $177 target price. Citi lowers EPS estimates by -2.8% in FY25 and raises FY26 by 5.9%.

Target price is $177.00 Current Price is $231.54 Difference: minus $54.54 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $225.71, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Following 3Q results showing profit for the financial year-to-date broadly equal to the previous corresponding period, Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Macquarie Group to $253 from $255.

Management left guidance across all divisions unchanged, implying to the analysts FY25 group NPAT will grow year-on-year. The broker awaits clearer evidence of earnings growth and anticipates share price weakness in the interim.

Overweight retained. The industry view remains In-Line.

Target price is $253.00 Current Price is $231.54 Difference: $21.46
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $225.71, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Hold (3) -

Morgans observes Macquarie Group's 3Q update (March year end) showed financial year-to-date profit broadly in line with the previous corresponding period.

Unfortunately, management's short-term outlook commentary didn't support the consensus expectation for 8% profit growth for FY25, leading the broker to lower its FY25 EPS forecast by -6%.

Morgans retains a Hold rating. The target price increases to  $218.57 from $217.21 as the broker's lower forecast earnings are offset by a valuation roll-forward.

Target price is $218.57 Current Price is $231.54 Difference: minus $12.97 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $225.71, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Macquarie Group maintained its FY25 outlook even though the December-quarter trading update was soft. The broker reminds the company does not quantify quarterly performance.

The broker's view is the guidance retention suggests a stronger outlook for Macquarie Group's commodities and global markets operations and the likely sale of Cero solar assets by the Macquarie Asset Management business by the balance date.

The broker notes the climate regulation downgrade in the US under Donald Trump has raised some questions over the value of Macquarie’s green energy assets but adds just 10% of the green assets on its books are located in the US.

No change to EPS forecasts, and $245 target and Accumulate rating are maintained.

Target price is $245.00 Current Price is $231.54 Difference: $13.46
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $225.71, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYR as Accumulate (2) -

Following the acquisition of the Apparel Brands assets from Solomon Lew’s Premier Investments ((PMV)), Ord Minnett has an Accumulate rating and 95c target price on Myer.

The analyst reckons revenue benefits from M&A transactions have historically proved hard to come by and are therefore not included in the modeling. 

Cost benefits are easier to quantify and achieve, and the broker estimates Myer could benefit $39–59m over a three-year horizon, including rent savings from overlapping stores and reduced sourcing costs.

On balance, the broker sees value on offer in Myer but also cautions investors will need to be comfortable with the risks inherent in trying to integrate two large retail businesses in a difficult, albeit improving, trading environment.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.1
If MYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes recent APRA profit data indicating strong industry performance and a boost from better markets will result in "solid" first half results for both Medibank Private and nib Holdings.

Medibank Private is the broker's preferred play given past delivery of best-in-class margins, with more consistency than peers, and management also has several levers to sustain outperformance.

The analysts' target for nib Holdings rises to $6.30 from $6.20. Equal-weight. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.80 Difference: $0.5
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

The broker highlights higher gold prices are generating strong free cash flow (FCF) for gold miners.

For Northern Star Resources, the analyst's target rises to $17.30 from $15.55 after updating for the 2Q operational performance and the higher gold price. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $18.54 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.37, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Following the completion of Latin Resources acquisition, Macquarie has resumed coverage of Pilbara Minerals with a Neutral rating and $2.30 target price. 

The analyst views the acquisition with its key asset Colina as accretive on resource, net asset value and long-term earnings.

The broker evaluates Pilbara Minerals in the context of its lithium sector peers, noting its underlying asset quality and low risk profile.

However, it acknowledges the valuation is driven heavily by long-term fundamentals and short-term valuation metrics screen as
expensive.

The broker has incorporated the 1H25 pre-earnings announcement, trimming FY25 EPS estimate by -16% but increasing FY26 forecast by 28%.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.18
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

For Pilbara Minerals the target rises to $2.70 from $2.55 after the broker updates forecasts for 2Q operational results.Overweight. Industry View: Attractive. 

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.58
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RGN as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, Citi notes Region Group reported a stable 1H25 result, though cost inflation remains an issue and exceeded growth in rental, population growth, and limited space, the analyst explains.

Management retained funds from operations guidance of 15.5c for FY25, with limited retail floor space relative to population growth supporting increased leasing spreads.

Citi flags a recent rise in short interest in the stock over the last two months as Mosaic Brands ((MOZ)) has moved into administration.

Citi retains a Buy rating. Target price slips to $2.40 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $0.27
If RGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RGN as Underperform (5) -

Region Group's 1H25 result was -2% below Macquarie and consensus expectations but management reiterated full year guidance. Macquarie notes this requires funds from operations per unit sequential growth of 5% in 2H.

The REIT highlighted higher fixed rent and turnover rent as well as efficiencies from the technology project and solar benefits.

The broker lowered FY25-FY26 EPS forecasts by -0.2% and -1.2% respectively, after updating hedging profile and income adjustments for acquisitions, divestments and asset repositioning projects. Underperform rating and $2.03 target maintained.

Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If RGN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

Iron ore miners remain the biggest dividend payers in the broker's coverage.

For Rio Tinto, the broker forecasts a final dividend of US228cps,10% ahead of the consensus estimate. A full-year payout of 60% is assumed.

Overweight rating. Target $130.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $130.50 Current Price is $119.71 Difference: $10.79
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.58, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Add (1) -

As large-cap resource stocks under Morgans' coverage have recently reported December quarter operating metrics, the February reporting season is expected to present fewer surprises compared to other sectors.

BHP Group and Rio Tinto are preferred for their balance sheet, earnings, and dividend qualities.

The broker maintains a cautious view on iron ore in 2025, with already volatile demand conditions persisting and the risk of trade conflict between major steel-consuming regions.

For Rio Tinto, the analyst forecasts a final dividend -5% short of the consensus estimate of US$3.63.

Target price is $125. Rating is unchanged at Add.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $119.71 Difference: $5.29
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.58, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RKN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley identifies few surprises in yesterday's FY24 result for Reckon and changes to forecasts largely reflect the Cashflow Manager acquisition and additional nQ Zebraworks investment.

The 58c target and Equal-weight rating are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Given modest sales and earnings growth in recent years, the analysts require evidence of execution in order to become more constructive. The Equal-weight rating and 58c target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.07
If RKN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

Iron ore miners remain the biggest dividend payers in the broker's coverage.

For South32, the analyst forecasts an interim dividend of US3.2cps compared to the US3cps expected by consensus. Given a rising forecast cash balance over the next few years, further capital management is expected.

No change to the Overweight rating and $3.90 target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.47
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Add (1) -

As large-cap resource stocks under Morgans' coverage have recently reported December quarter operating metrics, the February reporting season is expected to present fewer surprises compared to other sectors.

BHP Group and Rio Tinto are preferred for their balance sheet, earnings, and dividend qualities.

The broker maintains a cautious view on iron ore in 2025, with already volatile demand conditions persisting and the risk of trade conflict between major steel-consuming regions.

For South32, the analyst suggests recent selling, during a period of improved operating performance, is overdone, presenting attractive value upside. Add. Unchanged $4.30 target.

First half results are due tomorrow.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.87
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie notes St. Barbara has announced its intention to separate the Atlantic Gold operations in Nova Scotia, Canada, through a sale, demerger, or vend-in process, the analyst explains.

Sale proceeds are potentially flagged for increasing processing capacity at the 15 Mile plant to 3mtpa from 2.1mtpa, which will facilitate Cochrane being added to the feedstock, Macquarie notes.

The broker is currently on research restriction.

Current Price is $0.28. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

For Sandfire Resources, the target rises to $9.10 from $9.00. Underweight rating. Industry view is Attractive. 

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $10.72 Difference: minus $1.62 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.29, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SGH as Buy (1) -

SGH Ltd announced 1H25 net profit after tax of $505m, growth of 17% annually, and the result met Bell Potter's expectations.

Boral was the outperformer, including a rise in earnings margin to 14.3% from 10.9%, benefiting from sales and administrative rationalisation, the analyst details.

Coates came in below forecasts, while WesTrac results were better than estimates by 5%.

Management retained FY25 guidance of high single-digit earnings growth, and the balance sheet ended the period with net debt of $5,573m, from $5,322m at FY24.

Bell Potter raises the FY25 EPS forecast by 1%, while the FY26 estimate is left unchanged.

The target price rises to $57 from $53 on the margin outlook for Boral. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $51.65 Difference: $5.35
If SGH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.94, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Seven Group's 1H25 result beat its expectations, with the 335bps margin lift at Boral the clear surprise. 

WesTrac was solid, despite ongoing part price inflation while Coates performed admirably in tough market conditions, where Victorian revenues fell 20%.

The company reiterated high-single-digit EBIT growth expectations in FY25. However, given the strong Boral performance, the broker regards this as conservative and expects 12.6% growth.

The analyst has revised FY26-26 EPS estimates up by 7% and 9% respectively. Outperform rating maintained and target price is $56.1.

Target price is $56.10 Current Price is $51.65 Difference: $4.45
If SGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.94, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGH as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minett highlights SGH Ltd's 1H25 earnings and interim dividend beat market expectations, driven by wider margins at Boral and Coates, revenue growth at WesTrac and higher production from Beach Energy ((BPT)).

Of particular interest was Boral's impressive 29% year-on-year earnings which reflects a tight rein on çontrollable costs and a focus on improving the division’s efficiency, the broker notes.

The broker increased FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by 2% and 6% respectively, leading to a rise in target price to $56 from $52. Accumulate rating stays.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $51.65 Difference: $4.35
If SGH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.94, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGH as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights a robust performance from Boral, which assisted SGH Ltd in reporting 1H25 earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) above consensus estimates by 5%.

Revenue for the period advanced 2%, and group EBIT grew 10%, with industrial services up 10%. Underlying net profit after tax increased 17%, exceeding both the broker's and consensus forecasts.

Management reiterated FY25 guidance and is aiming for gearing at two times leverage by fiscal year-end.

The broker lifts EPS forecasts by 3% for FY25 and 1% for FY26. The target price rises 5% to $58.65.

UBS remains Buy-rated on SGH Ltd, anticipating three-year forward earnings growth before tax and interest of 8% per annum, with robust cash flow to de-gear the balance sheet.

Target price is $58.65 Current Price is $51.65 Difference: $7
If SGH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.94, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Suncorp Group's 1H25 net profit after tax came in above Citi's and consensus estimates due to favourable weather and a lower expense ratio, with less-than-anticipated reserve additions, the analyst notes.

The underlying margin at 11.8% met expectations, with FY25 guided to the upper end of the 10%-15% range. Consumer home gross written premium growth was 10.2% and motor 10.3%, largely resulting from rate rises, the broker states.

Citi points to the $4.1bn capital return as anticipated from the sale of the bank, with a fully franked special dividend of 22c per share, which was below forecast and consensus. The balance of $3.8bn will be returned via a share consolidation, Citi points out.

The broker expects the stock will trade higher on the result. Target $19.90, Neutral rated.

Target price is $19.90 Current Price is $20.35 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.18, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Suncorp Group's 1H25 net profit after tax was above UBS' forecast by 2% and 10% above consensus, at first glance.

CAT costs came in under budget by -$277m and were slightly below the broker's forecast but better than consensus by $95m at $503m. The analyst views this factor as representing around 85% of the better-than-anticipated earnings.

NZ margins were better than expected, while Australia came in lower than forecast. The overall 11.8% insurance margin was stronger than estimated.

UBS believes upside earnings seem more muted as gross written premium is set to slow, and management expects insurance margins to be in line with 1H in 2H25.

Neutral rated with a $20.70 target price.

Target price is $20.70 Current Price is $20.35 Difference: $0.35
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.18, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SWM as Neutral (3) -

Seven West Media reported a -26% decline in 1H25 EBITDA to $92m but this was within consensus expectations, Macquarie notes. Recent trading commentary of positive 3Q25 bookings showed optimism and a return to growth in 2H25.

FY25 guidance suggests at least $155m EBITDA which compares to the broker's forecast of $158m.

The broker expects the federal election in April or May to be an industry tailwind and notes the sports product on 7plus has contributed to an increase in audience numbers for other content.

After considering the 1H FY25 result, and with a change of analyst and new modeling, Macquarie has raised FY25 EPS forecast by 20% and FY26 by 27%.

Target price rises to 18c from 14c. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.005
If SWM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.17, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SWM as Sell (5) -

After further analysis of yesterday's 1H result for Seven West Media, UBS raises its target to 16c from 15c and maintains a Sell rating.

While 1H results for Seven West Media were broadly in line with the analysts forecasts, management's outlook commentary was a positive surprise. 

The broker explains these forward bookings for the March quarter in combination with a reiterated cost-out program, allowed management to forecasts a return to modest earnings growth in H2, versus the -2% expected by consensus.

A summary of yesterday's research by UBS follows.

UBS, at first inspection, notes Seven West Media reported 1H25 results in line with expectations. Revenue fell -6%, and net profit after tax declined by -41%, which was slightly below consensus but higher than the broker's estimate.

The analyst highlights management's guidance for 3Q25, with bookings trending up in low single digits as positive, as well as a return to revenue and earnings growth in 2H25.

Pre-earnings call, UBS is Sell rated with a 15c target.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.17, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWR as Outperform (1) -

Tower upgraded its FY25 net profit guidance to NZ$60-70m, up 18% at the midpoint of the previous range, and Macquarie notes there's upside risk at this point in the cycle.

The upgrade was mainly led by better-than-expected business as usual (BAU) claims following ongoing benign weather, easing claims inflation, and a lower number of large home claims.

Gross written premium guidance was revised to 7-12% from 10-15% as strong customer growth in the December quarter was offset by a reduction in average premiums.

The broker raised FY25 EPS estimate by 14% reflecting improved BAU claims and FY26 by 2% on an extension of BAU claims benefits. Target price rises to NZ$1.55 from NZ$1.50. Outperform rating maintained.

Current Price is $1.29. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VSL as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Vulcan Steel's 1H25 results was a slight beat on expectations, with net profit after tax higher than expected, despite steel volumes declining by -9%, which was better than the broker's forecast of -13%.

Average sales prices declined by -9% versus the expected -3%, while metals volumes and prices outperformed forecasts.

Due to ten fewer trading days in 2H25 than in 1H25, UBS sees downside risks to consensus earnings estimates, as the outlook for NZ remains challenging and is unlikely to recover until 2H25, the analyst believes.

Management offered no quantitative guidance.

UBS lifts the FY25 EPS estimate by 2% and lowers the FY26 forecast by -4%.

The target price rises to $7.30 from $7.10. No change to the Neutral rating.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.15 Difference: $0.15
If VSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Mining sector and identifies variances compared to consensus forecasts, just prior to financial reporting this month.

For Whitehaven Coal, the broker's interim dividend forecast of 9 cents is 8% above the consensus estimate, driven by the assumed contribution of NSW earnings, as the dividend is currently tethered to earnings from these assets.

Overweight rating. Target rises to $9.10 from $8.95. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $5.98 Difference: $3.12
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.00, suggesting upside of 54.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources