Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Sell (5) -

29Metals reported a cleaner 2H 2024 result following 1H impairments, with 2024 EBITDA of $58.5m beating Citi’s $41m estimate on lower COGS.

The broker highlights Cap Copper recovery and suspension costs of -$80m, guided to decline to -$30-40m in 2025. Golden Grove resources fell slightly due to limited exploration spending, which is expected to increase in 2025.

Citi adjusts 2025-2027 EBITDA forecasts by a margin of minus/plus 3% due to grade revisions at Golden Grove and rolls forward its NAV. Net debt is expected to rise

Sell/High Risk rating remains. Target price falls to 16c from 20c.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting upside of 48.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A4N as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Alpha HPA's LOI (letter of intent) coverage is set to increase toward 100% of name-plate capacity by end-2025 which is key to de-risking the project.

The company's 1H25 net loss of -$15.8m missed the broker's forecast for $4.9m profit, but this was because $19m of government grant was not included as other income.

The broker notes project development remains on track and the company remains well-funded with cash balance of $149m.

The broker cut FY25-26 EPS forecasts by -175% and -34% respectively due to grant income being recognised in balance sheet rather than as income.

Target price drops marginally to $1.42 from $1.43. Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.42 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.55
If A4N meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ACF as Add (1) -

Acrow reported a strong 1H25 result, in line with expectations, driven by solid growth in Industrial Access, Morgans notes.

The broker points to ongoing diversification across screens, jumpform, and formwork, supporting multiple growth levers. Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance and introduced underlying NPAT and EPS targets.

Morgans raises FY26/27 EBITDA forecasts by 1-2%, reflecting continued business expansion and product development.

Add rating maintained with a target price of $1.32, up from $1.30.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.26
If ACF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ACF as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Acrow reported 1H25 revenue and EBITDA in line with expectations, with Industrial Access outperforming. 

Gross profit advanced 26% while Formwork lagged down -13% due to project delays in Queensland, but is expected to recover in FY26.

Management's FY25 guidance was re-iterated.

The broker's earnings forecasts for FY25-27 (EBITDA) were raised by 2.3%, with the target price was left unchanged at $1.29.

The company remains well-positioned, supported by strong contract wins and a robust pipeline, Ord Minnett believes.

No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $1.29 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.23
If ACF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ACF as Buy (1) -

Acrow's 1H25 revenue was up 25% y/y but marginally missed Shaw and Partners' forecast, while the 11% rise in underlying EBITDA was in line with expectations. 

The broker notes project delays impacted 1H but the medium-term outlook looks strong with record levels of secured contracts and pipeline. 

The broker cut FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by -7.6% and -2.4% respectively mainly on higher assumed interest costs, and lowered FY25 net profit forecast by -24.5% to align with the company's guidance.

Target price of $1.3 and Buy rating are unchanged.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.24
If ACF meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AFG as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Citi says Australian Finance Group reported 1H25 NPAT which was 4% ahead of Citi’s estimate but -6% below consensus, with a slight miss on other income, higher costs, and lower associate income, the broker explains.

The company generated distribution gross profit growth of 5%, supported by diversification efforts, while trail commissions fell -4% due to continued payout pressure. Subscription income and diversified products drove growth.

Manufacturing gross profit rebounded 9% year-on-year, with the company's book grew 13%, indicating further 2H25 profit contribution. NIM of 1.13% remained stable, with funding cost improvements expected over 18 months.

Management outlined FY29 aspirations, targeting an AFGS book of $9bn with a 120bps NIM and 35 equity broker investments, up from two currently. Broker service income is expected to grow from 20% to 30% of distribution gross profit.

Citi sees solid momentum into 2H25, particularly in manufacturing, as funding costs decline. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.16
If AFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AIM as Add (1) -

Ai-Media Technologies reported a 1H25 result in line with expectations, reaffirming FY25 guidance and long-term targets, Morgans details.

The broker highlights a significant EBITDA improvement expected in 2H25, with circa $3m forecast, up 4x on 1H25. AI-powered growth remains a key driver for the company, the analyst explains.

Morgans sees upside potential upon execution and maintains an Add rating with a target price of $1.00.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.255
If AIM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Aeris Resources' 1H25 revenue was 5% higher than its forecast mainly due to pre-paid ore sales from Mt Colin, and this resulted in net profit also beating its forecast by 105%.

The broker, however, notes free cash flow of $8m was -$5m lower than its forecast, though net debt of $16m was also -$2m lower vs its expectations.

The broker revised its FY25 EPS forecast up by 7%. No change to 27c target price or Outperform rating.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.105
If AIS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 64.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Hold (3) -

Aeris Resources reported 1H25 EBITDA of $80.8m, up 90% year-on-year and 3% ahead of forecasts, with higher revenue offsetting increased costs, Ord Minnett notes.

NPAT missed by $4m due to higher net interest expenses. The balance sheet, including $26m cash and $40m debt, was in line with expectations.

Management's FY25 guidance remains unchanged, though copper output may fall slightly short to around 25kt versus circa 30kt guidance, while Cracow gold production is expected to exceed the mid-point forecast, the broker explains.

Tritton's multiple deposits should support a strong 4Q.

Ord Minnett slightly lowers FY25-27 earnings estimates but maintains the target price at $0.23.

Hold rating unchanged. Although the valuation seems appealing, the broker counters there are near-term balance sheet pressures.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.065
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 64.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Buy (1) -

Atlas Arteria provided 2025 DPS guidance of at least 40c, flat year-on-year, despite a 7-9% free cash flow impact from temporary French taxes, Citi notes.

The broker highlights the new CEO's changes, including a revised free cash flow definition and a new payout policy of 90-110% of free cash flow, improving dividend transparency.

The firm expects payout ratios to decline over 2026-2027, supporting medium-term DPS growth.

Management is taking a more proactive approach to Dulles Greenway, pursuing legal avenues to unlock distributions. The analyst sees potential for a shift in management's long-term strategy in France, improving growth prospects.

Citi maintains a Buy rating with a target price of $5.70.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.49
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

Atlast Arteria's FY24 EBITDA of $1.342bn was in line with Macquarie's forecast and cash flow was $5m better than forecast. Net profit was slightly lower on higher depreciation.

The broker notes APRR traffic is rebounding in 1Q25 after strikes impacted last year but temporary tax is a drag. Overall, the broker reckons traffic and toll prices cannot offset the tax headwind, resulting in a -$30m decline in free cash flow. 

The company maintained FY25 dividend guidance of 40c and expects to make up the cash shortfall through cash reserves. The broker is comfortable with the payout ratio of 90-100%, and expects better clarity around the dividend sustainability by FY28.

Target price cut to $5.51 from $5.66. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $5.51 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.3
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Atlas Arteria delivered 2025 distribution guidance of $0.40 per security, marginally ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecast.

The broker notes the company is refining its future distribution target to at least $0.40, adding a 90-110% free cash flow to its guided payout.

Chicago Skyway EBITDA in 2024 was up 4%, less than Morgan Stanley expected, owing to higher operating expenses.

Dulles Greenway EBITDA of US$61m was up 7% and in line with expectations. Equal-weight. Target is $5.26. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.26 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.05
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALX as Hold (3) -

Morgans observes Atlas Arteria's 2H 2024 result had minimal surprises, with toll revenue already disclosed and asset EBITDA broadly in line.

The analyst highlights updated DPS guidance, supporting its 40c forecast over coming years, with an implied 7.7% cash yield. DPS growth may be limited.

Forecast changes are minimal, with adjustments reflecting a revised debt amortisation profile.

Morgans maintains a Hold rating with a target price of $4.60, down from $4.63.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ANG as Buy (1) -

Austin Engineering's 1H25 revenue of $170.2m beat Shaw and Partners' forecast of $153.5m and underlying EBITDA of $25.3m compared with the broker's $24.3m.

The weakness was in working capital drag due to the steel inventory build but this is expected to reverse in 2H.

The broker made marginal changes to revenue and EBIT forecasts which are now consistent with the company's guidance. EPS forecast for FY25 increased by 17.5% but FY26 estimate only rose by 0.7%.

The broker highlights the company's outlook suggests upside risk to guidance numbers. Buy rating and 70c target remains.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.265
If ANG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter found the Eagers Automotive 2024 underlying operating profit below forecasts while revenue beat estimates. Final dividend of $0.50 was a positive surprise and ahead of forecasts.

The company has indicated it expects sustainable net margins and further improvement. The broker calculates, if margins are sustainable or flat in 2025, then on implied revenue of $12.2bn this suggests underlying operating pre-tax profit of around $400m.

Estimates are upgraded for revenue forecasts in 2025 and 2026 by 2%. The target increases to $15.25 from $13.65 and, as this is only a modest premium to the share price, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $14.93 Difference: $0.32
If APE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.96, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APE as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi upgrades to Neutral from Sell and raises the target price to $14.25 from $9.50.

Eagers Automotive reported 2024 PBT of $371m, down -15%, with a 3.3% margin, slightly ahead of Citi’s 3.2% estimate but in line with consensus, the analyst observes.

The broker points to cost control and inventory management as key strengths, with PBT margins expected to stabilise in 1H 2025 before expanding in 2026

Management forecasts $1bn in turnover growth for 2025, with around  $400m from BYD expansion. Citi remains cautious, expecting a lower $350m uplift due to slowing EV demand.

The analyst upgrades FY25/26 PBT forecasts by 13-20%, reflecting revenue guidance and a stronger margin outlook.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $14.93 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.96, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APE as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has transferred coverage of Eagers Automotive to Sophia Mulligan. The analyst raised the target price to $16.39 from $10.50, and lifted the rating to Outperform from Neutral.

While FY24 underlying profit was a slight beat to consensus, the broker notes margin of 3.3% was 210bps above the sector average of 1.2%. The company provided FY25 revenue guidance of over $1bn and the broker believes there's upside risk, given potential for acquisitions or greenfields.

The analyst raised FY25-26 EPS forecasts by 12% and 7% respectively to reflect a 5% increase to revenue and 20% increase in gross profit margin.

Target price is $16.39 Current Price is $14.93 Difference: $1.46
If APE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.96, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APE as Overweight (1) -

Eagers Automotive delivered a 2024 result that was slightly ahead of expectations. Morgan Stanley assesses the results provide further evidence of the level of sustainable margins.

This was particularly so given a backdrop of second-half new vehicle sales that were down -7%. The broker is convinced about the significant opportunity for the long-term in EA123.

Despite being a bull on the stock, Morgan Stanley finds it difficult to be too aggressive with forecasts given the multiple drivers impacting the business.

Overweight rating retained. The target lifts to $17.00 from $12.70. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.93 Difference: $2.07
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.96, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APE as Add (1) -

Eagers Automotive reported 2024 PBT of $371m, down -14%, outperforming a weak industry backdrop, Morgans notes.

The broker highlights stable 2H 2024 margins at 3.3% versus an industry average of 1.2%, with near-term margin stability and medium-term uplift expected.

Management guided to circa $1bn in turnover growth for 2025, driven by acquisitions and organic expansion in used vehicles alongside the Retail JV.

The analyst lifts 2025/2026 EPS forecasts by 3%/6.8%, respectively, reflecting higher revenue growth assumptions and stable margins.

Morgans maintains an Add rating with a target price of $16.20, up from $14.00.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $14.93 Difference: $1.27
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.96, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APE as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Eagers Automotive's FY24 result was strong with profit before tax and margins beating its forecast. The company guided to a $1.0bn revenue growth in FY25, citing strong demand from BYD and other key brands.

The company expects margins to benefit from greater earnings contributions from BYD, Easyauto123 and recent acquisitions.

The broker pushed up profit before tax forecasts by 17-18% over FY-27. Target price rises to $15.0 from $12.8.

Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.93 Difference: $0.07
If APE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.96, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as No Rating (-1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Bapcor has made progress on cost reductions, reiterating the upper end of its -$20-30m target and delivering a "resilient" performance in its trade segment.

Following the first half result, the broker re-bases its numbers, cutting earnings forecast by -7-13%. Following three years of sequential earnings declines, the broker believes the company is ready to deliver growth in FY26.

Morgan Stanley is unable to provide a rating and target at present. Industry view is In-Line.

Current Price is $5.36. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBT as Buy (1) -

BlueBet Holdings' bid for PointsBet Holdings ((PBH)), valued at $340-360m, has the potential to reshape the Australian online wagering sector, Ord Minnett believes.

The offer includes $240-260m in cash and $100-120m in scrip, with identified cost synergies of at least -$40m annually. BlueBet believes its bid is superior to MIXI’s $1.06 per share cash offer but was not granted due diligence.

Following strong 1H25 results, with EBITDA of $1.7m beating forecasts, Ord Minnett makes minor forecast adjustments but keeps the target price at $0.46.

Unchanged Buy rating.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.1
If BBT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BEN as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett upgrades Bendigo & Adelaide Bank to Hold from Lighten due to the valuation, post the stock's fall of some -22% since 1H25 results on February 17. No change to target price at $10.50.

The broker notes weak earnings were driven by higher operational and funding costs as the bank struggled with stronger-than-expected lending volume growth. Steps have been taken to stabilise margins, including more rational loan and deposit pricing and additional staffing.

Bendigo’s restructuring, which reduced brands to four from 13 and IT platforms from three to eight, has been costly, with the cost-to-income ratio at 62%, well above the major banks. However, the investment was necessary for competitiveness, the analyst states.

Ord Minnett maintains a cautious view on sector earnings and valuations but sees this regional lender as fairly valued at current levels. A strategy update later this year will be key for assessing its long-term positioning.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.49, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BET as Speculative Buy (1) -

Betmakers Technology reported 1H25 results in line with expectations, as key metrics were pre-released, Ord Minnett details.

The analyst points to a shift in focus from cost-cutting to growth, with initiatives like Apollo and the Sportradar partnership positioning the company for a revenue rebound from 2H25.

The company aims to reduce its annual cash expense run rate to -$55m from -$60m in FY25, with gross profit margins expected to exceed 65% by 1Q25, supporting profitability, the broker details.

The five-year Sportradar deal is consideted a strong endorsement of the company's technology, with potential to drive significant revenue upside and attract new platform customers.

Speculative Buy rating and target price of $0.17 unchanged.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.055
If BET meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Boss Energy posted record revenue of $47.8m in the first half, broadly in line with Bell Potter's estimates.

Operating costs were almost double what the broker expected, largely because of the difference in accounting treatment on the sale of inventory.

The overall result was therefore a loss of -$9.5m versus expectations for profit of $12.2m. The broker adjusts its accounting calculations and production modelling. Target is reduced to $4.80 from $4.85.

The stock is assessed as trading at a material discount for a resources company with a stable balance sheet that is beginning to generate steady cash flow. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $2.18
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 56.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOE as Buy (1) -

On first take, Citi notes Boss Energy reported a 1H25 earnings miss of -$17m due to higher uranium inventory costs.

The broker sees no operational changes but lowers FY25 earnings by -54%, with FY26/27 unchanged. The analyst attributes the result to an inventory accounting technicality rather than fundamental issues.

DCF valuation remains largely unchanged at $3.56 per share, with long-term uranium price assumptions intact.

Citi maintains a Buy rating with a target price of $3.60.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.98
If BOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 56.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results from Boss Energy missed Morgan Stanley's forecasts, because of higher costs. Lower EBITDA was slightly offset by net interest income.

The broker reduces EPS estimates for FY25 by -67.2%, driven by higher corporate and other expenses. FY26 estimates are also down -14.2%. Target is reduced to $2.95 from $3.25. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.33
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 56.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BOE as Buy (1) -

No surprises in Boss Energy's 1H25 result, observes Shaw and Partners, while pointing to the company's strong financial position at end-December of $251m in cash and liquid assets, and no debt.

Costs were lower than expected and the broker cut its forecasts to align with the company's guidance.

The broker marked to market its uranium price assumptions as the current spot price of US$66/lb is well below its forecasts.

The broker has lowered 2025 1Q/2Q/3Q price assumption to US$70/US$90/US$120 from US$100/US$120/US$135 while retaining 4Q forecast at US$150/lb.

This resulted in a -44% reduction to FY25 EBITDA forecast, but no material change beyond that. Target price drops to $3.7 from $4.20, and Buy retained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $1.08
If BOE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 56.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CCX as Sell (5) -

Bell Potter notes City Chic Collective's first half result was pre-reported. The first eight weeks of sales in the second half have provided some improvement, with Australasia up 30% and the US up 9%.

Guidance for FY25 has been downgraded to revenue of $137-147m and EBITDA of $ 8-12m, given the difficult environment in the partner channel and clearance-related margin impacts in the US.

Bell Potter makes some changes to gross margin assumptions and factors in the tariff impact on US sales.

Sell rating retained, given the mass apparel retailing channel is what are the most challenged categories at the moment. Target edges up to eight cents from seven cents.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.14, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CHL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett details Camplify Holdings' 1H25 normalised net loss of -$7.1m, well below the analyst's forecast of -$1.3m, as the company faced multiple setbacks ahead of its insurance product launch.

Challenges included integration issues with PaulCamper, the loss of temporary government contracts, increased marketing costs, and a cost-reduction program. Despite these headwinds, the upcoming insurance product launch could provide material upside, the broker believes.

The market was surprised by the magnitude of the loss, though cash concerns appear overstated, the broker comments, with $12.5m in cash and expectations of positive operating cash flow from 2H25.

Ord Minnett lowers FY25/26 EPS forecasts and delays its $125m revenue target, cutting the price target to $1.03 from $1.83 but maintains a Buy rating given the potential upside from insurance.

Target price is $1.03 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.465
If CHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CNI as Sell (5) -

First half results from Centuria Capital revealed operating EPS of 6.2 cents, ahead of Bell Potter's estimates. FY25 guidance was reiterated with a distribution of 10.4 cents, implying a -6% decline in earnings for the second half.

The broker "applauds" the company for new growth pillars but remains cautious about the outlook amidst rising competition. Sell maintained. Target slips to $1.70 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.05
If CNI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNI as Neutral (3) -

The bright spot in Centuria Capital Group's 1H25 result, Macquarie highlights, was a 21% increase in real estate credit finance to $2.3bn, even as group assets under management fell -$0.6bn to $20.5bn. Overall, operating earnings per security was in line with the broker's forecast.

The broker expects only limited recovery in real estate funds under management growth, noting reduction in term deposit rates following RBA rate cuts would lead to a rotation into real estate syndicates with a lag.

Minor revisions to forecasts, with FY25 EPS lowered -0.3% but FY26 raised by 0.8%. Target price down to $1.78 from $1.85, and Neutral maintained.

Target price is $1.78 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.13
If CNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CNI as Overweight (1) -

First half earnings slightly beat Morgan Stanley's forecasts with Centuria Capital highlighting it is in advanced planning for new sector-specific IPOs.

The broker points out the company already has office and industrial listed A-REITs so the new vehicles may be in alternative sectors.

Bass was a highlight in the half, with assets now at $2.3bn, expected to contribute around $25m in EBITDA in FY25.

Target is $2.45. Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.8
If CNI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

First half underlying net profit from Coles Group was slightly ahead of Bell Potter's expectations.

Underlying results, where net profit was up 1%, included $92m in supply chain implementation and duplication costs while an estimated $20m in EBIT was gained from industrial action in Victoria affecting Woolworths Group ((WOW)).

Bell Potter downgrades to Hold from Buy to reflect the recent share price movement, noting the ACCC is likely to release its final report into supermarkets shortly.

Coles is favoured over competitor Woolworths, given what the broker perceives is better execution against profit growth in a difficult retail environment. Target rises to $21.15 from $20.50.

Target price is $21.15 Current Price is $20.38 Difference: $0.77
If COL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.89, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

Coles Group reported 1H25 EBIT of $1,117m, below Citi's forecast by -1% but 4% ahead of consensus, driven by strong execution and benefits from automated distribution centres.

The broker highlights growth in supermarket sales of 3.4% in early 2H25, supported by Woolworths' industrial action, and a 77bps margin expansion, exceeding consensus. Retail media and online sales offer further upside.

The ACCC's upcoming grocery market report may generate negative media attention, but the analyst sees limited earnings impact. Coles trades at a -10% FY26 PE discount to Woolworths, with potential for re-rating.

Buy rating with a target price of $21.00 unchanged.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $20.38 Difference: $0.62
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.89, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights Coles Group increased margins in a tough environment, with the 1H25 underlying supermarkets EBIT margin rising to 5.7%, up 34bps vs year before.

The broker expects margins to be supported going forward by improvement in stock losses, lower tobacco sales and the group's Simplify and Save to Invest (SSI) program.

The broker sees tailwinds of around $380m in FY26 from another year of SSI program and the end of implementation costs compared with FY25 EBITA forecast of $2.1bn

Target price rises to $22.0 from $19.5, mainly on higher EBITDA forecasts. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $20.38 Difference: $1.62
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.89, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COL as Equal-weight (3) -

The Coles Group results beat estimates in the first half, with supermarket EBIT margins at 5.2% and up 15 basis points compared with consensus expectations.

Morgan Stanley notes gross profit margins benefited from supply chain efficiency with optimisation of ranges in-store and the customer offer helping to offset investment in price/value.

The benefits from the industrial action at Woolworths were felt at the Kemps Creek distribution centre which absorbs significant volume and the company hopes to retain some of the benefits, although the broker suspects this will erode as customers prioritise convenience.

In liquor, market trends have picked up with the focus on share gains over the medium term. Rating is Equal-weight and the target is $17.80. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $20.38 Difference: minus $2.58 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.89, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COL as Hold (3) -

Morgans views Coles Group's 1H25 result as strong, outperforming expectations, driven by solid supermarket performance.

The broker highlights $157m in cost savings from the Simplify & Save program, bringing total savings to  around  $400m over 18 months. Industrial action at Woolworths Group ((WOW)) boosted EBIT by $20m, the analyst explains.

Liquor EBIT fell -12% below forecasts, though some recovery was seen late in 1H25. Cash realisation was low at 69% due to timing but is expected to normalise.

Morgans lifts FY25-27 EBIT forecasts by 3-4% and raises the target price to $20.90 from $17.95.

Hold rating retained.

Target price is $20.90 Current Price is $20.38 Difference: $0.52
If COL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.89, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Coles Group's 1H25 earnings beat consensus. and the company flagged a positive start to 2H. Solid revenue and tight cost control led to strong margin performance, the broker highlights.

The analyst believes both Coles and Woolworths Group ((WOW)) are set for a strong year in FY26 but sees more upside in Woolworths than Coles.

EPS forecasts cut by 1% across FY25-27. Target price rises to $21 from $19.5 and Accumulate retained.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $20.38 Difference: $0.62
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.89, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Buy (1) -

After further analysing Coles Group's 1H25 result, UBS highlights the supermarket is doing better on promotions and range than its key competitor Woolworths Group ((WOW)).

This allows it to meet the market on value in a manner that doesn't damage gross margin.

The broker lifts FY25 reported EPS forecast by 0.7% and FY26 by 1.3% due to higher supermarkets & Liquor EBIT, moderated by higher net interest.

Buy rating retained, and target price rises to $22.35 from $19.50 due to lift in earnings forecasts and higher FY25 forecast EV/EBIT multiple of 16.6x from 16.4x. The latter reflects greater confidence in execution, the broker explains.

Target price is $22.35 Current Price is $20.38 Difference: $1.97
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.89, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS notes reports of the cancellation of the March VRBPAC (Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) meeting in the US.

This meeting is a discussion with manufacturers about which strains to include in the upcoming influenza season's vaccine.

The broker notes another article stating the CDA and FDA attended the WHO meeting to determine recommendations for the Northern Hemisphere. 

For now, the broker is waiting to see if major vaccine manufacturers are instructed to follow the WHO or whether there will be another US-based method to choose.

Target price of $310 and Buy rating retained.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $260.29 Difference: $49.71
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.93, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CUV as Buy (1) -

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals delivered a first half result that was well ahead of Bell Potter's estimates at the earnings line. EBITDA increased 53% amid lower operating expenditure and an FX tailwinds.

The broker observes the core franchise continues to grow, delivering impressive profit margins. This should also hold up in the medium term even if a second entrant comes to the market.

The enterprise value is considered undemanding at 7.5x EBITDA, well below the global peer average. Buy rating retained. Target is lowered to $ 21.75 from $22.25.

Target price is $21.75 Current Price is $11.75 Difference: $10
If CUV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CVW as Add (1) -

Morgans says ClearView Wealth's 1H25 result showed a strong recovery after a challenging 1Q25, with claims normalising and all key FY26 targets reaffirmed, the analyst explains.

The broker points to an increase in gross premium targets and stronger-than-expected top-line growth. Claims volatility in 1Q25 now appears temporary, reducing concerns over long-term profitability.

The balance sheet remains solid, supporting growth initiatives and potential capital returns. Management maintains a positive outlook for FY26, expecting operational efficiencies to drive further improvement.

Morgans raises FY25/26 EPS forecasts by 2-16% and increases the target price to 65c from 59c.

Add rating maintained.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.21
If CVW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Catalyst Metals posted first half results where underlying EBITDA and net profit were slightly below Bell Potter's estimates. FY25 guidance is for 105-120,000 ounces at AISC of $2300-2500/oz.

The broker downgrades to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds, noting a 30% appreciation in the share price in three months.

The valuation is based on a long-term gold price of $3500/oz. Target is unchanged at $4.45.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $0.23
If CYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DDR as Overweight (1) -

Dicker Data delivered 2024 results that at first glance were in line with expectations. Morgan Stanley considers it a "good" result given the broader concerns and headwinds in the industry. Software growth was around 12%.

The outlook for IT expenditure is tougher now, the broker observes, although this should turn at some point.

A cycle inflection is hard to call but Morgan Stanley suspects the business should experience some tailwinds in 2025 from hardware refreshing.

Overweight. Target is $10.10. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $9.10 Difference: $1
If DDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.60, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DGL as Neutral (3) -

UBS's first assessment is DGL Group's 1H25 financial result was weaker than expected, with EBITDA of $26m -13% below the prior year and missing UBS' estimate by -16%, while underlying net profit of $1.7m fell -77% year-on-year.

Revenue increased 10% to $239m, beating forecasts by 3%, though cost pressures, particularly in the Environmental segment, weighed on margins.

The broker highlights management expects revenue growth from acquisitions and organic expansion, with FY26 EBITDA forecast to improve materially as cost control measures take effect.

UBS cannot get excited, pointing towards near-term challenges in profitability and cost efficiency. Neutral. Target 59c.

Target price is $0.59 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.065
If DGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.56, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DUG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Dug Technology's 1H result disappointed with revenue down -4% y/y and EBITDA down -26%.

The broker reckons bad news appears to be out of the way with the company's order book increasing sharply to $42.2m at the end of January vs $32.9m in end-December.

Given the soft 1H, the broker cut EBITDA forecast for FY25-27 by -9-27%. Target price drops to $2.33 from $2.67, and Buy maintained.

Target price is $2.33 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $1.11
If DUG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

On first glance, Citi notes Endeavour Group reported 1H25 NPAT of $298m, in line with consensus, with lower sales offset by reduced net interest costs.

Hotel sales grew 3.3%, and retail EBIT margins held at 7.2% despite distribution issues.

The EndeavourGo program delivered -$40m in savings, with a FY26 target of -$290m-plus. Retail sales fell -1.5% due to weak demand and supply chain disruptions, while gaming revenue rose 2.8%, underperforming industry trends.

2H25 trading improved, with retail sales down -0.8% and hotels up 4.7%. Capex guidance was cut to -$375m-$425m, and finance costs lowered.

Citi sees share price strength continuing, with investors likely to push for faster hotel renewals.

Target price is $4.87 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $0.38
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Buy (1) -

After an initial glance, UBS finds Endeavour Group's 1H25 financial result was mixed, with EBIT of $595m -10% lower year-on-year but 1% ahead of its own estimate, while net proifit of $298m exceeded forecasts by 3% but came in below consensus.

Retail EBIT fell -15%, reflecting weaker sales and higher costs, while Hotels EBIT rose slightly by 0.8%, driven by strong trading conditions.

The brokert highlights management provided a cautious outlook, noting retail sales declined -0.8% in early 2H25, partly due to supply chain disruptions.

UBS remains positive on the long-term investment case, but also highlights short-term risks from cost pressures and subdued consumer spending.

Buy, price target at $5.00.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $0.51
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EXP as Buy (1) -

Experience Co's 1H25 net profit missed Ord Minnett's forecasts but the broker made little change to forecasts.

Target price up marginally to 34c from 33c, and Buy rating maintained.

In the broker's view, the current management has improved the underlying quality of group assets with the Trees Adventure acquisition supplemented by operational improvements in the Reef Unlimited business.

It has also juggled the challenges associated with a China centric Skydiving Division soundly.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.215
If EXP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 172% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Fineos Corp's FY24 EBITDA was 34% ahead of Macquarie's forecast due to a combination of higher revenue and better cost management. 

The company's FY25 revenue guidance of EUR138-143m is up 5% at mid-point, and the broker is forecasting EUR140.5m. 

The broker raised FY25 EBITDA forecast by 17% and FY26 by 10%. Target price rises marginally to $2.45 from $2.44. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.765
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Goodman Group benefits from strong AI-driven data centre demand, with NVIDIA’s Q4 data centre revenue reaching a record $35.6bn, up 93% year-on-year, Citi says.

The broker emphasises growing demand from cloud providers, enterprises, and AI model training, supports Goodman's development and management fee growth. Infrastructure scalability and AI adoption trends remain key drivers.

Goodman trades at a premium to peers but is well-positioned for long-term growth. Citi maintains a Buy rating with a target price of $40.00.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $32.10 Difference: $7.9
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.42, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLO as Hold (3) -

Helloworld Travel's 1H25 result missed expectations, with EBITDA down -20% year-on-year despite an additional month of acquisitions, Morgans details

The company announced a strong interim dividend supported by a solid balance sheet, but FY25 EBITDA guidance of $35-40m was significantly below consensus.

The broker highlights management expects a stronger 2H25, citing solid forward bookings, though visibility remains limited.

Morgans cuts FY25/26/27 EBITDA forecasts by -14%/-11%/-8%, reflecting weaker-than-expected guidance. EPS estimates fall by -21%/-17%/-13%.

The target price is lowered to $1.91 from $2.30. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $1.91 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.215
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HVN as Buy (1) -

On first take, Citi notes Harvey Norman reported 1H25 PBT of $312m,  some -8% below the analyst's forecast but 1% above consensus, with strong franchise EBITDA offset by UK start-up losses.

Franchise EBITDA was 5% above consensus on better operating leverage, while international performance was mixed. NZ held up better than expected, but UK startup losses of -$8m weighed on results. Cash conversion was strong at 119%.

2H25 trading is in line with Citi's forecasts, with Australian like-for-like franchise sales up 2.1% in January and 7% in February. Sales in Ireland rose 3.6%, while NZ showed signs of stabilising. Malaysia's store expansion target has been delayed to 2030.

Citi expects a mixed market reaction, favouring Australian recovery but caution on the international outlook.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.11
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

UBS' first assessment is Harvey Norman's 1H25 was better than expected, with net profit of $279m, 26% ahead of the broker's estimate, driven by stronger franchising operations and property revaluations.

Revenue of $2.29bn rose 7% year-on-year, surpassing the broker’s estimate of $2.15bn, while underlying pre-tax profit of $310.5m was broadly in line.

As per the broker's commentary, retail operations in New Zealand and Asia delivered mixed results, with UK and Ireland underperforming.

The broker remains cautious on the outlook, noting near-term consumer spending headwinds despite solid February sales trends.

Neutral, price target $5.00.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IEL as Outperform (1) -

IDP Education's 1H25 adjusted EBITA beat Macquarie's forecast by 1% but missed consensus by -11%. The result was impacted by immigration policy changes but on the bright side pricing and costs performed well.

The broker is forecasting a -19% decline in student volume growth in FY25 but expects a rebound in FY26 with a 6% rise and a 5% rise in FY27. The upcoming elections in Australia and Canada are catalysts.

The broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -11% and FY26 by -2%. Target price unchanged at $16 and rating is Outperform.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $10.90 Difference: $5.1
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.60, suggesting upside of 75.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IEL as Overweight (1) -

First half results from IDP Education missed expectations. Morgan Stanley notes the business was adversely affected by recent regulatory changes which meant growth was skewed to source countries where the company has low share, such as China.

Further efficiency and cost reduction initiatives were implemented to better align expenses to the revenue outlook. The broker notes early signs of improvement in Australia and the UK. Overweight rating and $21.50 target. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $10.90 Difference: $10.6
If IEL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.60, suggesting upside of 75.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMB as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans highlights Intelligent Monitoring delivered a strong 1H25 result, with EBITDA up 23% year-on-year and NPATA rising 41%.

The company generated organic revenue growth of 6% in Australia and 4% in New Zealand, with recent contract wins in ADT Australia (security services) expected to accelerate growth.

Management reaffirmed FY25 EBITDA guidance of over $38m, implying at least 24% organic earnings growth in 2H25.

Morgans upgrades FY25/26 EPS forecasts by 34%/51%, reflecting stronger growth momentum.

Speculative Buy rating maintained with a target price of 80c, up from 75c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.27
If IMB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes Imricor Medical Systems reported its 2024 result in line with expectations, as lower sales were offset by reduced costs, The company ended the period with US$15.7m in cash, supporting near-term operations.

The broker highlights some key catalysts for 2025, including the first ventricular tachycardia procedure in Europe, NorthStar mapping approvals in Europe and the US, and US atrial flutter approval.

The hospital pipeline has expanded, with 18 European and 10 Middle Eastern sites now engaged.

Morgans lowers FY25/26 earnings forecasts by -13.3%/-7.9% but upgrades FY27 by 34.8%, expecting higher site adoption and procedure volumes.

With an increase in the discounted cash flow valuation, target price increases to $2.18 from $1.51. Morgans maintains a Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $2.18 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.605
If IMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Karoon Energy reported a strong result, with the Bauna FPSO acquisition driving earnings and valuation higher, Citi notes.

The broker explains the potential for Bauna’s 2C resources to be converted to 2P by extending the FPSO’s life to 2038, lowering D&A and supporting earnings growth. The Neon 1P resource update is expected soon.

The analyst's FY25/26 NPAT forecasts are raised by 21%/14%. Target price lifts to $2.20 from $2.00.

Citi maintains a Buy rating as the stock is viewed as undervalued.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.745
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 44.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects Karoon Energy's US$115m purchase of the Bauna FPSO (floating production, storage & offloading) to be highly value-accretive over the long term.

The purchase price was below expectation and is a major strategic positive, the broker suggests.

Karoon's investment case now materially improves. If FPSO transfer goes smoothly, this should be an inflection point, Macquarie notes,
raising market confidence in Karoon's outlook and valuation.

Target rises to $2.10 from $1.90, Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.645
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 44.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Equal-weight (3) -

Karoon Energy delivered 2024 earnings that slightly beat estimates while 2025 guidance is unchanged.

Morgan Stanley notes the company has signed an agreement to acquire Bauna FPSO for -US$123m, targeting financial close by April 30.

All approvals for the SPS-88 intervention have been received with the well expected to be back on stream before mid 2025. Production guidance for 2025 is 9-10.5 mmboe and capital expenditure of -US$99-117m.

Equal-weight and target price is $1.80. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.345
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 44.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Karoon Energy reported strong 2024 results, supported by a material cash tax saving and a well-priced FPSO acquisition, Morgans notes.

The broker highlights the US$115m FPSO purchase with over a 20% internal rate of return and a four-year payback, removing lease expenses and improving uptime. Net unit operating costs are expected to fall by -US$4-$6/bbl from 2026.

EBITDAX of US$492m rose 14% year-on-year, in line with consensus but ahead of Morgans' US$480m estimate. Underlying NPAT of US$214m was a 9-14% beat due to a favourable FX swing from the Brazilian Real.

Morgans makes several forecast adjustments, including lease removal, capex increases, and a lower debt cost, raising the target price to $2.45 from $2.20.

Morgans maintains an Add rating.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.995
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 44.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Sell (5) -

Lovisa Holdings is exploring a new retail concept, which Citi sees as a potential material growth opportunity not yet priced in by the market.

The broker highlights the concept leverages Lovisa’s existing capabilities, reducing execution risk.

However, some investors may view it as a sign that the core Lovisa format is nearing maturity, the broker acknoiwledges, especially given the slower US and China expansions.

Citi adopts a neutral stance on the impact but sees execution as key to long-term growth.

Target price is $25.86 Current Price is $28.57 Difference: minus $2.71 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.25, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Further to the first half result, Morgan Stanley updates its modelling for Lynas Rare Earths, noting earnings have been affected by higher costs.

The second half performance is expected to depend on end-market demand and be a trade-off with additional volume impacts on price and costs.

EBITDA missed forecasts although some of this was from FX losses.

The company has focused attention on efficiencies from the Mount Weld expansion such as adding an automated crusher circuit direct to mill, a new grinding circuit and fourth-generation flotation circuit.

Underweight rating. Target edges down to $5.65 $5.70.The industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $6.89 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.88, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates M7T as Add (1) -

Morgans observes Mach7 Technologies reported a stronger-than-expected 1H25 result, with cost controls offsetting continued investment in operations and product development.

The company achieved 33% revenue growth driven by a growing billable subscription base and a $3.5m capital license. ARR rose 35% and EBITDA turned positive at $0.5m, beating forecasts of a -$1.2m loss, the broker explains.

Commentary highlights the company is near OpEx coverage solely from subscription revenue, with expected contract activations further improving cash flow visibility.

Operating leverage is expected to strengthen as topline growth outpaces cost expansion. Morgans makes minor OpEx forecast adjustments and raises its target price to $1.37 from $1.36.

Add rating retained.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.93
If M7T meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 211% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MAQ as Overweight (1) -

Macquarie Technology delivered first half earnings labeled as "mixed", but largely met Morgan Stanley's expectations, providing full year guidance of $112-115m in EBITDA for the first time.

The broker notes a strong track record of managing the portfolio to achieve consistent profit and cash flow.

The company expects flat CS&G margins in the second half and the impact of US tech vendor price rises starting to ease in FY26.

The business remains committed to a significant data centres development pipeline guiding to -$120-135m in capital expenditure in FY25.

Morgan Stanley concludes the first half is supportive of a positive investment thesis and makes no change to its Overweight rating and $100 Target. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $72.34 Difference: $27.66
If MAQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MMS as Outperform (1) -

McMillan Shakespeare's 1H25 normalised profit beat consensus by 3.5%. It was a high quality beat, Macquarie suggests, given investment in growth and one-off costs.

Opex growth was 7.2% year on year, with 95% of the incremental cost growth relating to customer growth initiatives and efficiencies programs. The balance sheet remains undergeared with net cash $82.3m versus $79.4m 1H24.

McMillan Shakespeare has navigated 1H25 headwinds, Macquarie suggests. The valuation is considered "not demanding" with a high single digit yield and 11x PE multiple. Target falls to $18.24 from $20.78, Outperform retained.

Target price is $18.24 Current Price is $15.59 Difference: $2.65
If MMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.29, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MMS as Overweight (1) -

At first glance, Morgan Stanley notes the first half result from McMillan Shakespeare beat estimates and revealed momentum. Yields appear stable and novated order growth was stronger than expected.

Overweight rating. Target unchanged at $20.  Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.59 Difference: $4.41
If MMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.29, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MMS as Accumulate (2) -

McMillan Shakespeare is gaining momentum, Ord Minnett observes, and second half guidance was a positive surprise given concerns around the slowdown in new car deliveries into Australia, as well as ongoing inflation pressures.

Guidance is for underlying net profit to exceed the first half's $49.6m. New car orders in December and January were up 19% on average, which the broker suggests is a strong lead into the second half. Accumulate retained. Target is unchanged at $19.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.59 Difference: $3.41
If MMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.29, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection, Citi raises FY25-27 EPS estimates by 25%, 15%, and 14%, respectively, driven by a better-than-expected 3.99% rate rise and controlled claims inflation.

The broker highlights stable policyholder retention despite cost-of-living pressures and an 8% lower-than-expected 1H25 claims growth per policy unit.

Growth remains a concern, with 1H25 policyholder growth of 0.9% below market trends, though Medibank expects acceleration.

Cyberattack risks appear to be diminishing, leading Citi to remove a -5% discount from its valuation.

Citi raises the target price to $4.85 from $3.90 and maintains a Neutral rating.

****

On first inspection, Medibank Private delivered a strong 1H25 result, with earnings ahead of Citi and consensus estimates, driven by better-than-expected Health Insurance profit. Cybercrime costs were stable.

Policyholder growth remained weak, with management now guiding for disciplined growth in 2H25. PHI gross margins improved due to risk equalisation and premium downgrading, while net margin exceeded forecasts. Non-resident policy growth remains strong but is slowing.

A fully franked interim dividend was in line with expectations, though the payout ratio was below the target range.

Citi sees the company managing claims inflation well, with the higher-than-expected April 2025 premium rate increase likely to support sentiment. The stock is expected to rise.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.43
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.33, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Medibank Private delivered on claims growth and gross margins without adjusting actuarial assumptions, Macquarie notes, suggesting the result was very high quality.

Medibank has committed to returning an additional $160m to customers, roughly offsetting the balance in the covid-related equity reserve at December.

The health insurer has retained its aspirations to grow policyholders in line with the market in 2H25, taking share in FY26.

With current valuations appearing fair, Macquarie awaits the next few data points of Medicare claims inflation to judge the pace of claims catch up. Target rises to $4.25 from $3.90, Neutral retained.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.33, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Medibank Private's net profit was ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates in the first half. Health insurance operating profit was up 10%.

The broker now has more confidence in the company's ability to maintain peak margins for longer, yet trading on 19.5x FY26 PE considers this captured in the share price.

Morgan Stanley is also not convinced the company can reignite policyholder growth and so envisages better earnings growth prospects at general insurers.

The target rises to $4.25 from $3.95. Equal-weight. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.33, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MSB as Speculative Buy (1) -

Mesoblast has "moved with purpose" Bell Potter observes to make the life-saving therapy Ryoncil available. This follows FDA approval in December.

The list price has been established at $194,000 her infusion and the broker suggests is not unreasonable compared with other therapies for rare paediatric disease in the US.

Modelling suggests the company will enter the ASX200 in the next rebalance in early March and catalysts include first doses of Ryoncil in the US and corroborative data on pricing.

The Speculative Buy rating is maintained. Target is raised to $4.30 from $3.90.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $1.84
If MSB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MTO as Add (1) -

Motorcycle Holdings delivered a strong 1H25 result, with sales up 12%, EBITDA up 20%, and NPAT rising 43%, outperforming Morgans' expectations by 4% on sales and 7% on NPAT.

The broker highlights strong growth in Mojo up 21% and new/used motorcycle sales up 11% with momentum continuing into early 2H25. EBITDA margins stabilised at 8%, and operating cash flow improved to $26.7m, supported by an -$8m inventory reduction.

The company increased market share to 15.8%, outperforming a subdued industry.

Management remains focused on cost control, used motorcycle sales, and e-commerce expansion, with potential inorganic growth opportunities.

Morgans upgrades FY25-27 EPS by 2.9%, 10.2%, and 11%, reflecting stronger revenue from Mojo and a slightly softer gross margin outlook.

Target price rises to $2.75 from $2.25.. Add rating retained.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.77
If MTO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MVF as Buy (1) -

Monash IVF posted results for the first half that were better than Bell Potter expected at the revenue and EBITDA lines.

There were various contributors to the strength, such as pricing benefits, the ultrasound business and international, that more than offset weakness in the domestic ARS market, the broker comments.

The company has announced a program to improve EBITDA margins by 200 basis points by FY27, through productivity and efficiency measures such as digitalisation and process redesign. The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $1.69 from $1.56.

Target price is $1.69 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.465
If MVF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Monash IVF's 1H25 underlying profit was above the mid-point of guidance, but FY25 guidance is slightly lower than Macquarie's previous forecasts due to a weaker Victorian environment.

Market share gains continued in 1H25, the broker notes, accelerating into the end of 2024. These were driven particularly by expansion in WA, supported by recent acquisitions and organic specialists recruitment.

Macquarie continues to see structural tailwinds for the IVF industry and expects Monash IVF to be well-placed to return to share gains, with potential upside in the medium term from carrier screen testing converting to IVF cycles.

Target rises to $1.65 from $1.50, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.425
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MVF as Add (1) -

Monash IVF reported 1H25 NPAT of $15.8m, up 5.5%, in line with guidance, Morgans notes.

The company generated 11.6% revenue growth driven by Australian revenue up 10.8% and Southeast Asia up 24.9%. Market share increased to 21.5% despite a -2.1% industry decline in Australia. Genetic carrier screening volumes rose 80%.

Southeast Asia EBIT grew 74%, with momentum in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore following the Jakarta JV exit. Revenue in the region is expected to grow over 10% annually, with potential M&A opportunities, the analyst explains.

Morgans lowers FY25/26 revenue forecasts by -2%/-1%, with NPAT down by -4%/-2%, respectively on higher depreciation. 

Target price slips to $1.45 from $1.50. Add rating remains.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.225
If MVF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MVF as Accumulate (2) -

First half earnings from Monash IVF were modestly ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates, while net profit was in line.

The broker observes the company was able to leverage acquisition tailwinds as well as price increases and deliver growth against a tough backdrop.

The sector is still expected to be "sluggish", limiting operating leverage and any material re-rating. Ord Minnett makes minor adjustments to operating assumptions and retains a Hold rating. Target is steady at $1.25.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.025
If MVF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates OCL as Buy (1) -

Objective Corp's annual recurring revenue rose 10% in 1H25 but the company reiterated its FY25 target of 15%, and, based on the management call, Shaw and Partners is confident it will be achieved.

Accordingly, the broker pushed up its ARR forecast to 15% from 14% previously.

The broker notes there was no operating leverage in 1H but expects it to come in FY26 and beyond as the company continues to invest.

The broker lowered FY25 revenue forecast by -3% but slightly increased long-term revenue growth forecasts on increased potential for 3Sixty, RegWork and Build to scale beyond their home markets.

Target price rises to $15.5 from $14.4, and Buy remains.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $14.86 Difference: $0.64
If OCL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.77, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy reported EBITDA that was well short of Bell Potter's estimates for the first half. The big point of difference were costs, relating to the issues in stockpiled ore which, the broker points out, has plagued production.

Cash increased because of the Fission Uranium acquisition, operating profit and drawn net debt.

The question for the broker is whether the transition to profitability is going to happen in the second half or not until FY26, with the latter looking increasingly more likely. Buy rating retained.  Target rises to $11.00 from $10.85.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $4
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.48, suggesting upside of 66.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its modelling to allow for the first half result from Paladin Energy, which slightly missed estimates.

Production guidance for FY25 has been reiterated and the broker notes the best production has occurred since the restart occurred in December, allowing for a sustained improvement in performance over the second half as key to reaching guidance.

The company is actively assessing how to bring forward mining and, if this is achieved earlier than the assumed restart in the September quarter, it could help stabilise grades and underpin production volumes.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and reduces the target to $10.00 from $10.35. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $3
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.48, suggesting upside of 66.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PGC as Hold (3) -

Paragon Care posted mixed first half results, with revenue ahead of forecast and EBITDA below. Bell Potter considers the result "fair", reducing FY25 EBITDA estimates by -2%.

Integration of new businesses is progressing while the company remains on the lookout for bolt-on acquisitions that will add margin. Hold rating and $0.52 target unchanged.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If PGC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PGC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett found first half earnings from Paragon Care in line with expectations, representing strong execution at a time when significant integration is occurring.

Pharmacy revenue growth of 16% was identified as a highlight and revealed strong market share gains.

The broker expects easing hospital sector headwinds and a ramp up in synergies to further support EBITDA growth in the second half. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $0.56 from $0.54.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.03
If PGC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPM as Buy (1) -

Pepper Money reported FY24 NPAT of $98.2m, 6-7% above expectations, driven by $2.5bn in whole loan sales, Citi notes.

The broker highlights NIM expansion, improved mortgage and asset finance origination, plus an -8% workforce reduction.

Earnings remain volatile due to reliance on semi-annual loan sales, while lower funding costs support margins.

The analyst lowers earnings forecasts by 2-3%, with gains on sales offset by weaker NII.

Citi maintains a Buy rating with a target price of $1.55.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.115
If PPM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPM as Outperform (1) -

A key positive for Macquarie in the 2H24 result was Pepper Money's margin trend.

After a turnaround in 1H24 (following several years of compression), margins continued to increase in 2H24, lifting 11bps to 2.03%, and rising in both the mortgage and asset finance segments, the broker observes.

Management also guided for exit margins to be marginally higher than 2H24, suggesting to the broker the recovery in margins is sustained.

The dividend increased to 7.1c from 5.0c, representing the upper end of the target payout range (30-60%). In addition, the buyback is still under way.

Macquarie believes the valuation for Pepper Money is attractive. Target rises to $1.65 from $1.60, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.215
If PPM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PPT as Buy (1) -

Perpetual's underlying net profit of $100.5m was just shy of Bell Potter's estimates. Improvements have been noted with plans for further cost reductions.

The outlook therefore appears brighter, the broker points out, with a lower cost base and a reduction in debt from the sale of wealth management.

The new CEO plans to improve asset management, autonomy in the boutique businesses, lower costs and deliver better distribution and a stabilisation of JO Hambro. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $24.80 from $25.40.

Target price is $24.80 Current Price is $21.18 Difference: $3.62
If PPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.43, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Buy (1) -

Perpetual reported significant one-off costs, likely leading to a near break-even FY25 statutory result, Citi notes.

The broker highlights the ongoing sale of Wealth Management, expected to reduce debt, with potential stranded costs of around -$10m. The simplification program aims to cut pre-tax costs by -$70m to -$80m annually by FY27.

Citi sees Perpetual as undervalued despite high debt and market scepticism on cost savings. Corporate Trust is a high-multiple business, and Asset Management costs should decline in FY26.

Citi lowers FY25 EPS estimate by -4% but raises FY26/27 by 4%/6%, reflecting cost reductions and earnings recovery.

Buy rating maintained. Target price rises to $24.80 from $24.20.

Target price is $24.80 Current Price is $21.18 Difference: $3.62
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.43, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Perpetual delivered first half underlying net profit that was below estimates while EBIT was broadly in line as was the dividend.

Morgan Stanley agrees with the new CEO that distribution remains a top priority as cost savings typically do not lead to higher trading multiples for asset managers.

Asset management will move to a global distribution model and the company is not seeking to take costs out of distribution, believing it is under-invested in that area.

Morgan Stanley suspects turning around the asset manager will be a multi-year program and require considerable patience from shareholders. Target is $22.50. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $21.18 Difference: $1.32
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.43, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PXA as Buy (1) -

UBS's initial assessment is Pexa Group's 1H25 financial performance was in line with expectations, with operating EBITDA of $73.2m  matching UBS' estimate while beating consensus by 1.2%.

Net loss (NPATA) of -$13.2m was better than UBS' forecast but below consensus due to one-off items. Revenue grew 25% year-on-year to $203.7m, slightly ahead of estimates, while operating expenses fell -13%, improving cost efficiency.

The broker observes management announced a $50m share buyback and reaffirmed FY25 guidance, with revenue expected to grow 13-19% and an operating EBITDA margin above 34%.

Buy rating with a price target of $15.50.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $11.39 Difference: $4.11
If PXA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.92, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QAL as Add (1) -

Morgans says Qualitas delivered a solid 1H25 result, in line with expectations, reaffirming full-year guidance.

The companyed recorded $2.4bn deployment, up 34%, with strong committed and fee-earning FUM growth. Net funds management revenue rose 20%, outperforming expectations with margins expanding to 49%.

Morgans forecasts FY25 NPBT at $50m, at the lower end of guidance, reflecting cautious deployment timing.

Co-investment income expectations are reduced due to lower rates. Management is exploring additional equity strategies and potential M&A outside real estate.

The broker lowers FY25-27 NPBT forecasts by -2%/-6%/-7%, while funds management income is raised by 5%/2%/2%.

Target price rises to $3.35 from $3.20. Add rating unchanged.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.61
If QAL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights, on further inspection, Qantas reinstated a $250m base dividend and a $150m special dividend, replacing buybacks. Higher capex is expected in FY26-27.

The analyst raises FY25-27 EBIT forecasts by 3-8% but sees the stock as fairly valued. Citi maintains a Neutral rating with a target price of $9.60, up from $8.20.

***

On first take, Citi notes Qantas Airways' 1H25 EBIT of $1,505m was in line with consensus, with Jetstar outperforming by 15%, while Qantas Domestic and International missed by -7% and -4%, respectively.

The broker attributes this to customer down-trading, with Qantas Domestic RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometres) and ASK (Available Seat Kilometres) flat or down, while Jetstar saw strong growth.

Management announced a fully franked $250m dividend, along with a $150m special dividend replacing a buyback. FY26 capex guidance of -$4.1–4.3bn was slightly above expectations.

Fuel costs of -$5.22bn versus -$5.01bn consensus are a moderate negative, the analyst explains, adding $100–200m in 2H25 costs, but Citi notes a positive RASK outlook could offset this.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $9.39 Difference: $0.21
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.91, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Neutral (3) -

Qantas reported 1H25 profit above Macquarie and announced a base dividend of 16.5c, plus a special of 9.9c.

The Qantas brand is progressively improving, while Jetstar is capitalising on the desire to travel despite the cost of living crisis, the broker comments. Load factors are near record levels.

Macquarie remains cautious on international given competitive capacity on Europe and US in FY26.

Qantas Airways' enterprise value to earnings multiple is at a ten-year peak (ex covid), the broker notes, adding this captures the structural changes to the airline's cost base.

Target rises to $9.65 from $9.30, Neutral retained.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $9.39 Difference: $0.26
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.91, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley found the first half results from Qantas Airways in line with expectations while the outlook signals upside to earnings and capacity metrics, underpinned by a combination of faster-than-anticipated resumption of fully franked dividends and a special dividend.

Scope is envisaged for a re-rating on the back of confidence that earnings are sustainable, with a new earnings base established well above historical levels.

The market has also overlooked the returns likely to be generated from the coming period of elevated capital expenditure, stemming from increased efficiency and optimised cabin layout, the broker asserts.

Overweight rating re-iterated with target rising to $11.50 from $10.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $9.39 Difference: $2.11
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.91, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QAN as Hold (3) -

Morgans highlights Qantas Airways reported an in-line 1H25 result, with Jetstar's strong 35% EBIT growth, better-than-expected free cash flow, and the first fully franked dividend since covid.

Jetstar generated record EBIT, benefiting from strong budget travel demand, fleet expansion, and lower fuel costs. New aircraft replacements are expected to drive over $1bn in EBITDA benefits.

Qantas announced a $16.5c interim dividend plus a $9.9c special dividend, totaling $400m in shareholder returns.

Net debt finished at $4.1bn, below forecasts, reflecting strong free cash flow. FY26 capex guidance is -$4.1-4.3bn, with capital returns expected to continue.

Morgans raises FY26/27 NPBT forecasts by 4%/7% on higher unit revenue and lifts the target price to $9.40 from $8.50.

No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $9.39 Difference: $0.01
If QAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.91, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26: