REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED (REG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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23/09/2025

1

Buy

$8.50

31.99%

Regis Healthcare provided a trading update following the recent announcement of government funding changes. The company stated the headline 4.7% AN-ACC funding increase equates to just 2.6% y/y funding rise, well below 5%-plus staff cost growth.

The $6.55/day hotelling supplement boost is more than offset by care funding cuts, the company highlighted.

FY26 underlying EBITDA was guided to $130-135m, missing Ord Minnett's forecast by -7%. The broker cut EBITDA forecasts for FY26-27, driving a cut in target price to $8.50 from $9.00.

Buy maintained.

On the issue of government funding, the broker believes development pipelines will slow and more providers might exit, assuming there are no further funding increases in FY26.

FORECAST
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents.
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 25.30 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents.

25/09/2025

2

Overweight

$8.20

27.33%

Management at Regis Healthcare issued FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $130-135m, -8% below consensus, which Jarden says destabilised expectations of robust funding to cover staffing costs.

The negative share price reaction of -26% appears unjustified to the broker. It's felt entry opportunities are supported by expectations of a government review of the Accommodation Supplement to address concessional resident underfunding.

Regis can also rebalance its mix towards RAD/DAP residents and raise RAD pricing, suggest the analysts.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating and lowers its target to $8.20 from $8.95.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 18.20 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents.