PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED (PEN)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

22/09/2025

1

Upgrade to Buy, High Risk from Hold

$1.33

106.20%

Peninsula Energy achieved first U308 production at the Lance Project and conducted a successful $70m equity raise.

Shaw and Partners believes the project is positioned to become the largest source of domestic uranium in the US and thus a highly strategic asset for nuclear fuel security.

The broker revised forecasts to factor in a production profile that increases sequentially but at the low end of the company's guidance to 2030. 

Contract book forecasts were updated to incorporate expectations of a higher achieved price of around US$80/lb linked to the spot price. The net result, including the share dilution, was a higher target price of $1.33 from $1.00.

Rating upgraded to Buy, High Risk from Hold. 

FORECAST
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -1.30 cents.
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.80 cents.

02/10/2025

1

Speculative Buy

$1.03

59.69%

Peninsula Energy’s recent $70m raising ensures the Lance project is financed to deliver uranium into the US market, where reliance on imports remains high, explains Canaccord Genuity after a period of research restriction.

The broker notes new CEO George Bauk has restructured contracts, reset the wellfield design, and refreshed management, leaving the company funded to free cash flow (FCF).

The analysts highlight the removal of five legacy contracts at a cost of -US$6.6m, restoring pricing leverage, with production expected to rise to between 400-600klb in 2026-27 from 18klb in 2025.

FY26 guidance assumes costs of -US$20-25m per year and C1 costs of -US$30-35/lb for Horizon 3.

Canaccord lowers its target price to $1.03 from $2.18 and retains a Speculative Buy rating.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.