EMERALD RESOURCES NL (EMR)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

12/12/2025

4

Lighten

$4.90

-12.97%

Ord Minnett has upgraded its 2026 commodity outlook after a year of supply-driven price strength, reflecting increased confidence amid improving, though uneven, global growth.

Gold is the standout, with the 2026 price forecast lifted 8% to US$4,200/oz, broadly in line with spot. Copper price forecast for 2026 lifted by 3% and coking coal by 2%, while nickel price trimmed by -4% and NdPr by -2%.

The broker revised the long-run forecast for AUD to US$0.70 from US$0.75, which is a key driver of earnings and valuation upgrades across the sector.

Overall, the broker reckons ongoing supply disruptions and underinvestment will support firmer commodity prices and stronger miner cash flows.

The broker lifted Emerald Resources' FY26 EPS forecast by 11.5% and FY27 by 11.4%. Lighten maintained, and target raised to $4.90 from $4.30.

30/10/2025

1

Buy

$6.80

20.78%

Emerald Resources’ September quarter update was largely in line with preliminary results, Canaccord Genuity notes, with guidance maintained and development progress at Memot and Dingo Range.

Okvau production rose to 22koz from 19koz, below guidance but generating $82m pre-tax cash flow at costs (AISC) of -US$1,186/oz, highlight the analysts.

The broker points to strong processing throughput, solid margins, and a robust balance sheet with $304m cash, noting Emerald remains debt-free and unhedged. Upside is seen from advancing Dingo Range and Memot toward development as approvals progress.

Canaccord retains a Buy rating and $6.80 target.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.