EMERALD RESOURCES NL (EMR)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

30/09/2025

4

Downgrade to Lighten from Hold

$4.30

-17.47%

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Emerald Resources is downgraded to Lighten from Hold. Target price is raised to $4.30 from $3.65.

29/09/2025

1

Buy

$6.00

15.16%

Canaccord Genuity has updated its long-term (from 2029) gold price forecast by 8.2% to US$4,173/oz, and the medium-term 2026/27/28 by 8.9%/8.5%/8.2%, respectively, in line with the forward curve.

For silver, the broker lifted the long-term price forecast by 14.5% to US$47.8/oz while long-term forex forecasts were left unchanged.

This has resulted in an average 13% rise in the broker's target price for senior producers, 12% for intermediate/junior producers, and 12% for explorers/developers.

Ahead of the September quarterly, the broker expects Emerald Resources to report production of 25koz, 33% higher than the preceding June quarter and 1% above the consensus. Cost forecast of US$1,116/oz is 5% above consensus.

Buy. Target rises to $6.00 from $5.50.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.