TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED (TYR)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

09/04/2026

5

Underweight

$0.70

-12.50%

Morgan Stanley has lowered price targets by around -20% on average across its Australian software and internet coverage. Near-term EPS estimate cuts are relatively modest but more meaningful over the longer-term.

Changes reflect the rapid impact of AI models and coding tools in compressing development timelines for competing software, the analysts explain.

Commentary notes all is not lost, with new opportunities emerging through additional products and revenue streams. However, it's noted companies will need to pivot and accelerate AI adoption to capture this potential.

Further, recent share price sell-offs are seen as largely indiscriminate and fail to reflect the relative competitive positioning of individual  software and internet stocks.

The broker's highest conviction Overweight positions within the sector are the internet marketplaces REA Group and CAR Group, alongside software names WiseTech Global, Xero and TechnologyOne.

Among smaller software names, Hansen Technologies and Catapult Sports are preferred. 

The Underweight rating for Tyro Payments is maintained. Target is reduced to 70c from 90c. Industry View: Attractive.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.

07/04/2026

1

Buy

$1.60

100.00%

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating for Tyro Payments with $1.60 price target following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) final conclusions on merchant card payment costs.

October 2026 implementation removes merchant surcharging and reduces interchange fees —with credit capped at 30bps and debit at 8cpt— yielding a net-neutral gross profit impact as lower revenue is offset by reduced cost of goods sold, the report concludes.

Canaccord Genuity highlights only 30% of Tyro merchants voluntarily surcharge, limiting churn risk, while increased fee transparency for large acquirers favours Tyro’s competitive positioning.

FY26 EBITDA guidance of $66m-$72m remains unchanged. Potential margin upside persists if incumbent banks are slow to reprice to recoup lost revenue, with a $100m net cash position providing significant strategic flexibility.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.